TWWHD Swift Sail %

Chances on how likely it is that they should sell the Swift Sail already, by number of attempts!


1       20,00%
2       36,00%
3       48,80%
4       59,04%
5       67,23%
6       73,79%
7       79,03%
8       83,22%
9       86,58%
10      89,26%
11      91,41%
12      93,13%
13      94,50%
14      95,60%
15      96,48%
16      97,19%
17      97,75%
18      98,20%
19      98,56%
20      98,85%


Keep in mind that its 20% for each individual attempt. 96,48% for 15 attempts means that the chances that you have the sail by the 15th attempt are 96,48%, not that there is a 96,48% chance you will receive it at that particular attempt.


You can also use the counter probabilities and think like it that way:

Example:

Attempt 10:
100% - 89,26% = 10,74%


-> The chance that you happen to be so unlucky to still NOT have the sail are at 10,74%.


Counter probabilities (chances that you do not have the swift sail by number of attempts):

1	80,00%
2	64,00%
3	51,20%
4	40,96%
5	32,77%
6	26,21%
7	20,97%
8	16,78%
9	13,42%
10	10,74%
11	8,59%
12	6,87%
13	5,50%
14	4,40%
15	3,52%
16	2,81%
17	2,25%
18	1,80%
19	1,44%
20	1,15%