pape calc

Hallway bowser
- might need to rework the block strats for hallway in case of a 3cap
chance to heal is 50% + 3cap + stomp or claw
Hallway Bowser will never heal when mario is at 3/10 HP
chance to get stomp 25%
chance to heal 50%
12.5% to not be able to control
12.5% to be able to control
75% to be safe
8.1% chance to get 3cap
safe- 6.075
claw risk- 1.0125
risky- 1.0125
Not blocking Claw gives 1% chance to live with a 3cap




Hallway bowser 1st try time out
Good RNG: 25.33%
5cap (13.74%)
4cap (11.49%) 1 HP - Sky Dive
3cap (4.77%) 8 HP - Sky Dive x2 + Star Beam + Jump x2

Hallway bowser 2nd try time out
5cap (9.618%)
4cap (8.043%) 1 HP - Sky Dive
3cap (3.339%) 8 HP - Sky Dive x2 + Star Beam + Jump x2


risky no repel gel route has same cloud and life shroom rng, but different caps
5cap + 6cap = 31.4%
6cap: 8.1%
5cap: 23.3%


3 Life Shrooms = 0.686%
2 Life Shrooms (49%) * 98% =
1 Life Shroom (51%) * 66.9%
No Life Shrooms (2.7%) * Effective RNG 76.41% =
0.6% chance of 3cap close call
0.18% chance of 3cap double close call
9.33% chance of 4cap close call
9.51% chance of no life shrooms lost
66.9% + 9.51% = 76.41%

3 life shrooms: 0%, 0%, 34.3% = Effective RNG 0.686%
2 life shrooms: 49%, 78.4%, 57.33% = Effective RNG 61.42%
1 life shroom: 48.3%, 20.79%, 8.127% = Effective RNG 38.94093%
No life shrooms: 2.7%, 0.81%, 0.243% = Effective RNG 2.06307%
-------



Correct!!
3 life shrooms: 0%, 0%, 34.3% = Effective RNG 0.686%
2 life shrooms: 49%, 78.4%, 57.33% = Effective RNG 58.31% (32.781% 5cap)
1 life shroom: 48.3%, 20.79%, 8.127% = Effective RNG 38.94093% (32.3127% 5cap)
No life shrooms: 2.7%, 0.81%, 0.243% = Effective RNG 2.06307% (1.8063% 5cap)


5cap (fixed)
2 life shrooms with 5cap needs 0/2 close calls 49%
1 life shroom with 5cap needs 1/2 close calls 48.3%
No Life Shrooms with 5cap needs 3/3 close calls 2.7%

4cap (fixed)
2 life shrooms with 4cap needs 0/2 close calls = 78.4
1 life shroom with 4cap needs 2/3 close calls = 20.79%
No Life Shrooms with 4cap needs 4/4 close calls = 0.81%

3cap
3 life shrooms with 3cap needs 0/3 close calls = 34.3% (correct)
2 life shrooms with 3cap needs 1/3 close calls =  57.33% (correct)
1 life shroom with 3cap needs 3/4 close calls = 8.127% (correct)
No Life Shrooms with 3cap needs 5/5 close calls = 0.243% (correct)

5cap (66.9%)
4cap (31.1%) 6 HP - Star Storm
3cap (2%)


3cap 2/4 close calls becomes 2 life shrooms
30-70
9-21-21-49
2.7-6.3-6.3-14.7 - 6.3-14.7-14.7-34.3

2 lucky
2.7-6.3-6.3-14.7 -
0.81-1.89-1.89-4.41

1 lucky
2.7-6.3-6.3-14.7 -
1.89-4.41-4.41-10.29

1 lucky
- 6.3-14.7-14.7-34.3
1.89-4.41-4.41-10.29

0 lucky
- 6.3-14.7-14.7-34.3
4.41-10.29-10.29-24.01

4/4 - 0.81%

3/4 - 1.89+1.89+1.89+1.89 = 7.56%

2/4 - 4.41+4.41+4.41+4.41+4.41+4.41 = 26.46%

1/4 - 10.29+10.29+10.29+10.29 = 41.16%

0/4 - 24.01%


4cap 1/3 close calls becomes 2 life shrooms
30-70
9-21-21-49
2.7-6.3-6.3-14.7 - 6.3-14.7-14.7-34.3

3/3 - 2.7%

2/3 - 6.3+6.3+6.3 = 18.9%

1/3 - 14.7+14.7+14.7 = 44.1%

0/3 - 34.3%



out of 49% with 2 life shrooms 37.8329%
5cap = 2 life shrooms 32.781%
4cap 31.1% x 49% = 15.239% - chance of close call 4.5717%
3cap 2% x 49% = 0.98% - chance of double 0.4802%

10hp 3cap
3hp 3cap

4 Life Shrooms = 100 not ded.
4.05 - 11.65
4.05% - 6cap win
11.65% - 5cap x 1cc x extra life 87.5 = 10.630625%
Good RNG: 14.7% (14.680625%)

3 Life Shrooms = 87.5 not ded.
4.05 - 11.65
3.54375% - 6cap win
11.65% - 5cap x 1cc x extra life 50 = 7.5725%
Good RNG: 11.1% (11.11625%)

2 Life Shrooms = 50 not ded.
4.05 - 11.65
2.025% - 6cap win
11.65% - 5cap x 1cc x extra life 12.5 = 4.514375%
Good RNG: 6.5% (6.539375%)

1 Life Shrooms = 12.5 not ded.
4.05 - 11.65
0.50625% - 6cap win
1.45625% - 5cap x 1cc = 0.436875%
Good RNG: 0.9% (0.943125%)




Cloud
0/3 = 12.5%
1/3 = 37.5%
2/3 = 37.5%
3/3 = 12.5%

Wave:
Chance to not wave at all is rare
50% to dodge

15.7 - 5cap
20.4 - 4cap
13.9 - 3cap


4 life shrooms on final bowser is max (well kinda)
4 gives you ability to miss all lucky clouds except for wave and 87.5% chance to have 4cap backup + close call
3 gives 2/3 87.5% survival and 50% chance for 4cap backup + close call
2 gives 1/3 50% survival and 12.5% chance for 4cap backup + close call
1 single life shroom gives 12.5% chance of survival and only close call for 4cap backup

1 Life Shroom = 12.5 not ded.
15.7 - 20.4
1.9625% - 5cap win
2.55% - 4cap x 1cc = 0.765% win
Good RNG: 2.7% (2.7275%)

2 Life Shrooms = 50 not ded.
15.7 - 20.4
7.85% - 5cap win
10.2% - 4cap x 1cc x extra life 12.5 = 3.9525% win
Good RNG: 11.8% (11.8025%)

3 Life Shrooms = 87.5 not ded.
15.7 - 20.4
13.7375% - 5cap win
17.85% - 4cap x 1cc x extra life 50 = 11.6025% win
Good RNG: 25.3% (25.34%)

4 Life Shrooms = 100 not ded.
15.7 - 20.4
15.7% - 5cap win
20.4% - 4cap x 1cc x extra life 87.5 = 18.615% win
Good RNG: 34.3% (34.315%)

4 Life Shrooms: 34.3% (15.7% 5cap)
3 Life Shrooms: 25.3% (13.7% 5cap)
2 Life Shrooms: 11.8% (7.9% 5cap)
1 Life Shroom: 2.7% (2% 5cap)


Chance calc:
1-2
2-4
3-8
4-16
50-50
25-25-25-25
12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5
6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25
far left is 0/4 lucky clouds
far right is 4/4 lucky clouds
14 left
next to each far point is 3/4
12 left
25 no lucky cloud and two more to go
12.5 will get 1 lucky cloud
no lucky cloud 6.25-6.25 double lucky cloud
0-6.25
1-12.5
2-6.25

50 1 cloucky cloud and two more to go
0-12.5
1-25
2-12.5

25 two lucky clouds and two more to go
0-6.25
1-12.5
2-6.25



0/4 = 6.25%
1/4 = 25%
2/4 = 37.5%
3/4 = 25%
4/4 = 6.25%



50-50
25-25-25-25
12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5-12.5

0/3 = 12.5%
1/3 = 37.5%
2/3 = 37.5%
3/3 = 12.5%


25
0/3 = 12.5%
1/3 = 12.5%

50
1/3 = 25
2/3 = 25

25
2/3 = 12.5%
3/3 = 12.5%

No Repel Gel:
T6 Peach Beam
T7 Power Bounce x6 / Spiny Egg
5cap: Star Storm + Spiny Egg x2

15,14,13,12,11,10 = 25x3 = 75
75+23 = 98
5cap 88
- Luigi Skip
- Time ends when Peach Raises her Hands at the party




stock calculations
hallway
5cap (45.8%)
4cap (38.3%) 1 HP - Sky Dive
3cap (15.9%) 8 HP - Sky Dive x2 + Star Beam + Jump x2
Time Out works
Chance to not get a bad cap: 25.33%
5cap 13.74%
4cap 11.49%
3cap 4.77%


alt. Hallway Bowser:
T1 Time Out (fail) / Shell Shot
T2 Time Out / Shell Shot
T3 Shell Shot / Maple Syrup
T4 Charge / Shell Shot (30hp)
T5 Power Bounce 4cap (30-22=8) / Sky Dive (6hp)
T6 Star Beam / Sky Dive (4hp) [Life Shroom]
T7 Jump x2
6cap: Star Storm on T5
5cap: Sky Dive + Star Storm
3cap: Star Storm on T7 + Sky Dive
7,6,5,4,3,2 = 9x3 = 27
42 + 5 + 2 = 49
star storm +2+2 = 11

Route was made by - KalarMar
Date: 2018-03/14
twitch.tv/kalarmar
twitter.com/kalarmar
youtube.com/kalarmar
chess.com/kalarmar