Exarion

Surge simulation data (Yellow)

Feb 25th, 2017
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  1. SIMULATION NOTES
  2. - 10,000 trials (couldn't do more without crashing Excel)
  3. - Assumes L27 Nido with DVs of 11/15/10/x/x
  4. - Assumes each move is 25% likely (this is very slightly inaccurate)
  5. - Assumes X Speed has a 25% chance of overwriting the chosen move, maximum once per fight
  6. - Assumes the fight lasts no more than 3 turns, even if Raichu has HP remaining (Thrash confusion is too complicated to simulate)
  7. - Assumes no Gen 1 misses
  8.  
  9. FULL DATA: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hnlcvxve5i29v5d/Surge%20simulation%20data.xlsx?dl=0
  10.  
  11. NOTABLES
  12. - Odds of winning the fight at various HP thresholds:
  13. > 1-20 HP: 38%
  14. > 24 HP: 57%
  15. > 36 HP: 75%
  16. > 60 HP: 90%
  17. > Full HP: 98%
  18. - Most common damage clusters:
  19. > 0 (37.6%)
  20. > 20-23 (19.6%)
  21. > 30-35 (17.1%)
  22. > 54-58 (5.8%)
  23. - Average damage taken is 24.7
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