Furnace Fun Statistics: Right vs Left

http://i.imgur.com/vh3NWjI.png

The following is a highly complex calculation of the percentages of completing Furnace fun going right or left (see http://imgur.com/nRXMKGz). These percentages consider the following: getting all Grunty questions right, getting all skull squares right, and getting all Joker questions right. Considered are two different scenarios: going back for health when needed (useful for safe strats or newcomers) and never detouring for health (useful for risk strats and people with good times). Also included is the minimum estimated time to complete the board as well as an estimated amount of time lost due to the Grunty squares

These are the theoretical percentages and times. Realistically, the true percentages are slightly higher.

Assumptions:
-You enter Furnace Fun with full health; 8 health for 100% and 5 health for any%
-Skull Squares and Joker Squares are estimated to give a Grunty question at a ratio of 1:7
-There is an equal chance for each answer in a Grunty question to be correct
-Grunty questions do not repeat
-Going left, the joker will be used on the Skull Square
-Going right, the jokers will be used on two Witch Squares
-Health that requires clearing additional squares is inaccessible
-Joker cards are not used prematurely; they are only used on specific squares at specific times

Conclusions:
-The greatest calculated chance of completing Furnace Fun is ~62% by going left and grabbing health when needed (100% only)
---This number will be higher if you detour to normally inaccessible health.
-Going left is faster in an ideal scenario, but has more potential to lose time
-Going right is faster generally, but does not pay off if you are forced to detour for health

<The following are opinions>
-If you are a new runner or have a PB of over 3.5 hours (100%), go left
-Alternatively, if you are a frequent runner with a PB of under 2:45 (100%), go right
-If you are running 100% or Any% with a good run you don't want to lose, go left
-If you are running 100% or Any% with a weak run that might be saved from a decent Furnace Fun, go right