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- RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2 - one more thought
- Email-ID 287965
- Date 2009-10-01 17:06:58
- To mfriedman@stratfor.com, gfriedman@stratfor.com, oconnor@stratfor.com, scott.stewart@stratfor.com, darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com, eisenstein@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net, peter.zeihan@stratfor.com, maverick.fisher@stratfor.com, Richard.parker@stratfor.com, grant.perry@stratfor.com
- One other thing -- from a branding perspective if we're serious about
- Quality, Status and Mystique I think showing too much of our inner
- workings devalues our Mystique. People don't know how we collect our
- intelligence and that's one of the cool, mysterious things about STRATFOR.
- Seeing raw intelligence come in would be cool for a few weeks but then it
- would become another expected product and we lose our mystique a little on
- source collection.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: Meredith Friedman
- Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:55 AM
- To: scott stewart; friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
- Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
- maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
- Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
- Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- Thanks, Stick, for laying this out. I have to say I support your position
- on this. As you mentioned yesterday, our sources would be talking to
- Reuters or other news organizations if they wanted their ideas published
- directly (even as anonymous sources) but they are not - they are talking
- to us because they know we protect not only their identity but use what
- they say in a careful way in our analysis or as sitreps.
- On the reverse side, if we blacked out every category of our source
- descriptions and coding it would be silly and make people wonder if we
- weren't making them up ourselves. We already show a lot of leg by sharing
- our internal intelligence guidance with our customers - that is sexy and
- something that makes us unique. I agree we would lose some of our best
- sources for intelligence if we began publishing what they send us in raw
- format no matter how carefully we try to disguise their identity.
- Meredith
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
- Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:43 AM
- To: friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric Eisenstein';
- 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
- Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'; 'Meredith Friedman'
- Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- OK, I have taken 24 hours to relax, calm down and think about this
- concept.
- Here are my thoughts.
- 1) This may be a decent marketing idea, but in my opinion it is a terrible
- intelligence idea. In addition to the point I made yesterday about many of
- our sources not wanting to be paraded into the spotlight, it is also
- important to remember that we have sources in places like Iran, Syria,
- China and Russia who could be traced if we allowed that much of their
- writings and information to be published in raw form. Allowing an
- intelligence service to isolate all the source reporting coming from that
- country would be very attractive to them and they would certainly attempt
- to determine who we are talking to, and who is talking to us, on a regular
- basis.
- We have an ethical responsible to do our best to protect our people - and
- from a purely selfish perspective if one of our people is identified and
- then whacked, arrested, or cowed by the authorities into no longer
- reporting, we can quickly lose an asset that have taken us years to
- develop. This will hurt our publishing operations, and will not be
- sustainable in the long run. We need to protect our most valuable -- and
- in most cases, our most sensitive -- sources for the future of the
- company.
- 2) We could do something like this with less-sensitive sources who agree
- to be published directly, but those less-sensitive sources will lack the
- sex appeal that Aaric is looking for and that will make this a rather
- bland product offering.
- 3) Based on 1 and 2, it is my recommendation that we continue to handle
- insight as it is. That is, using it to inform our analysis and to make
- sure our published work remains very strong, and our CIS customers stay
- informed. We can also continue to use critical pieces of insight directly
- as the basis for sitreps.
- I have calmed down from yesterday, but I still feel very strongly that
- continuing to handle insight as we do is the best course of action for us
- as an intelligence company.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
- Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:31 PM
- To: scott stewart; Darryl O'Connor; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan';
- George Friedman; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
- Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
- Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- We need to sit down and consider this. Sources we can't use are useless.
- Promiscuous use of sensitive sources is dangerous. This is an ongoing
- dilemma of intelligence. Since we aren't journalists there may be ways to
- deal with this. We need a policy. Stick, please put out your thoughts on
- this and then we will follow up. In the meantime we fold sensitive
- intelligence into analyses or sitreps on a case by case basis.
- Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
- --------------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: "scott stewart"
- Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:18:26 -0400
- To: 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
- Eisenstein'; 'Peter
- Zeihan'; 'George
- Friedman';
- Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- This is what I said to Aaric Monday. We really need to protect our people
- and our sources.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
- Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:05 PM
- To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George
- Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
- Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
- Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- my concern:
- does the source have website access? let's assume so. would they
- have the piss scared out of them to see their own words on our website?
- enough piss scared out of them to not want to be a source anymore?
- this is not really my area and not trying to horn in on someone else's
- territory, but i thought it wouldn't hurt to ask the question.
- over and out.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
- Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:55 AM
- To: 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
- maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
- Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
- Subject: FW: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- Can we publish the Insight below - redacted on source of course - as a
- test of the "raw" format as opposed to putting it into an article? It'll
- be interesting to see what kind of feedback we get on the new format.
- This Insight as good flavor in its raw form.
- Aaric S. Eisenstein
- Chief Innovation Officer
- STRATFOR
- 512-744-4308
- 512-744-4334 fax
- aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
- Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
- From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
- Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:51 AM
- To: Aaron Colvin
- Cc: Secure List
- Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
- interesting -- they've put in a clod because they don't think he's smart
- enough to do anything
- would hate to be the clod
- clods are disposable
- Aaron Colvin wrote:
- SOURCE CODE: IR2
- PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
- SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Tehran-based freelance journalist/analyst who is
- well plugged into the system
- ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
- SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
- ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
- SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
- DISTRIBUTION: Secure
- SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
- I think the composition is very interesting. Jalili is no seasoned
- diplomat but he is someone both SL and Sepah could trust since his lower
- intellectual and political stature makes it less likely that he shows
- any independent streaks on tactical matters-- as someone like Larijani
- could have. The other two are career diplomats-technocrats with
- extensive knowledge of their respective fields. Jalili needs them for
- advice on legal niceties and for general political considerations. The
- third negotiator's presence is in indeed interesting. As you have
- noted, the presence of someone from the Minstry of Economic Affairs
- serves to show Iran's seriouness in the talks. But it is just for the
- show as Iran knows that the talks will fail.
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