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  1. Part 2: Evaluation
  2.  
  3. Instructions: We are interested in your ability to evaluate counter-arguments. First, you will be presented with a belief held by an individual named Dale. Following this, you will be presented with Dale's premise or justification for holding this particular belief. A Critic will then offer a counter-argument to Dale's justification for the belief. (We will assume that the Critic's statement is factually correct.) Finally, Dale will offer a rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument. (We will assume that Dale's rebuttal is also factually correct.) You are to evaluate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument, regardless of your feeling about the original belief or Dale's premise.
  4.  
  5. Dale's belief: It is more dangerous to travel by air than by car.
  6.  
  7. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: It is more dangerous to travel by air than by car because air accidents are more likely to involve fatalities.
  8.  
  9. Critic’s counter-argument: Passengers are 3 times more likely to be killed per mile traveled in a car as compared to a plane (assume statement factually correct).
  10.  
  11. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Because reckless or drunk drivers cause the great majority of all automobile accidents (assume statement factually correct), car travel is at least safer than air travel for people who wear safety belts and travel with sober and careful drivers.
  12.  
  13. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  14.  
  15. 1) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  16. Experts' rating: 1.5 (so between Very Weak and Weak)
  17. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  18. Dale's belief: Eighteen year olds should have the legal right to drink alcoholic beverages.
  19.  
  20. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Eighteen year olds are just as responsible as 21 year olds, so they ought to be granted the same drinking rights as other adults.
  21.  
  22. Critic’s counter-argument: Eighteen year olds are 3 times more likely to be involved in an automobile accident while under the influence of alcohol than 21 year olds (assume statement factually correct).
  23.  
  24. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Eighteen year olds will drink no matter what the law says (assume statement factually correct), so it is useless to try to legislate that they not drink.
  25.  
  26. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  27.  
  28. 2) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  29. Experts' rating: 1
  30. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  31. Dale's belief: The relative ease with which handguns can be obtained has resulted in an unnecessarily high murder rate.
  32.  
  33. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Countries that strictly limit handgun ownership have far fewer murders than the United States.
  34.  
  35. Critic’s counter-argument: People without handguns will use knives or other weapons instead (assume statement factually correct).
  36.  
  37. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Since handguns are particularly lethal and most violent attacks are impulsive acts (assume statement factually correct), attacks with handguns are more likely to result in death.
  38.  
  39. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  40.  
  41. 3) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  42. Experts' rating: 4
  43. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  44. Dale's belief: Interviews should be given a higher weighting in graduate school admissions than GREs (standardized test scores) or undergraduate GPAs (grades).
  45.  
  46. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Weighting interviews higher than GREs or undergraduate GPAs will result in better people being admitted to graduate schools.
  47.  
  48. Critic’s counter-argument: Both GREs and undergraduate grades are much better predictors of success in graduate school than interviews (assume statement factually correct).
  49.  
  50. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Interviews sometimes uncover important personal information that would be missed by an impersonal process that relies heavily on grades and undergraduate GREs (assume statement factually correct.)
  51.  
  52. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  53.  
  54. 4) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  55. Experts' rating: 2
  56. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  57. Dale's belief: The present Social Security system is unfair to people who are now retired.
  58.  
  59. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The present Social Security system is unfair to retired people because these people get far too little money.
  60.  
  61. Critic’s counter-argument: Currently, retirees end up drawing from the Social Security system over four times what they contributed to the system (assume statement factually correct).
  62.  
  63. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: These figures don't take into account the fact that retirees are being paid in dollars that have been greatly eroded over the years due to inflation (assume statement factually correct).
  64.  
  65. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  66.  
  67. 5) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  68. Experts' rating: 3
  69. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  70. Dale's belief: Computers cannot think.
  71.  
  72. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Computers cannot think because computers do not produce anything that is original (i.e., anything that humans haven't already produced).
  73.  
  74. Critic’s counter-argument: A computer has produced a proof of one of Euclid's geometry theorems that no human had produced before (assume statement factually correct).
  75.  
  76. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: The computer that produced that proof was built by humans (assume statement factually correct).
  77.  
  78. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  79.  
  80. 6) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  81. Experts' rating: 1
  82. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  83. Dale's belief: The welfare system should be drastically reduced in size.
  84.  
  85. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The welfare system should be drastically reduced in size because welfare recipients take advantage of the system and buy expensive foods with their food stamps.
  86.  
  87. Critic’s counter-argument: Ninety-five percent of welfare recipients use their food stamps to obtain the bare essentials for their families (assume statement factually correct).
  88.  
  89. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Many people who are on welfare are lazy and don't want to work for a living (assume statement factually correct).
  90.  
  91. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  92.  
  93. 7) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  94. Experts' rating: 1.5
  95. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  96. Dale's belief: Women should stay home and take care of the children while they are young.
  97.  
  98. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Only a mother can provide the quality of care young children both need and deserve.
  99.  
  100. Critic’s counter-argument: Women who are in self-fulfilling careers are confident parents who spend as much quality time with their young children as nonworking women (assume statement factually correct).
  101.  
  102. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Most women work out of necessity, not because they find their employment fulfilling (assume statement factually correct).
  103.  
  104. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  105.  
  106. 8) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  107. Experts' rating: 2.5
  108. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  109. Dale's belief: Judges should sentence more juvenile delinquents to prison for their crimes.
  110.  
  111. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: More juvenile delinquents should be sentenced to prison because severe punishment will act as a deterrent to future criminal activities.
  112.  
  113. Critic’s counter-argument: Youths who are sent to prison for relatively minor infractions have a greater likelihood of becoming adult criminals than youths who are placed on parole in a community rehabilitation program (assume statement factually correct).
  114.  
  115. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Youths who commit even relatively minor infractions are more likely to engage in criminal activities as adults than nondelinquent youths (assume statement factually correct).
  116.  
  117. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  118.  
  119. 9) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  120. Experts' rating: 1
  121. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  122. Dale's belief: Taxes in the United States are too high.
  123.  
  124. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: United States industry is at a competitive disadvantage because our taxes are too high.
  125.  
  126. Critic’s counter-argument: Taxes in the United States are among the very lowest in the industrial world (assume statement factually correct).
  127.  
  128. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Politicians waste millions of dollars on useless pet projects (assume statement factually correct).
  129.  
  130. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  131.  
  132. 10) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  133. Experts' rating: 1
  134. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  135. Dale's belief: The speed limit should be 65 mph on interstate highways.
  136.  
  137. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Because the interstate highway system was designed for high speed traffic, it is safe to drive at 65 mph on this system.
  138.  
  139. Critic’s counter-argument: The accident rate dropped when the speed limit was reduced to 55 mph in the late 1970's, and it has increased substantially since the speed limit was returned to 65 (assume statement factually correct).
  140.  
  141. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Many people will drive at 65 mph whether or not the legal limit is 55 (assume statement factually correct).
  142.  
  143. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  144.  
  145. 11) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  146. Experts' rating: 2
  147. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  148. Dale's belief: Seat belts should always be worn when traveling in a car.
  149.  
  150. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Seat belts should always be worn to make traveling by car safer.
  151.  
  152. Critic’s counter-argument: There are times when your life may be saved by your being thrown free of a car during an accident (assume statement factually correct).
  153.  
  154. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: You are several times more likely to be killed if you are thrown from a car (assume statement factually correct).
  155.  
  156. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  157.  
  158. 12) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  159. Experts' rating: 4
  160. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  161. Dale's belief: The tax on gasoline should not be raised significantly.
  162.  
  163. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The tax on gasoline should not be raised significantly because the economy will be hurt by higher taxes.
  164.  
  165. Critic’s counter-argument: Taxes could always be lowered in other areas to compensate for the increased gasoline tax, and raising the cost of gasoline will encourage conservation which would be good for the economy in the long run (assume statement factually correct).
  166.  
  167. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Increased gas tax would hit lower and middle income people harder than wealthier people (assume statement factually correct), so it would be unfair.
  168.  
  169. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  170.  
  171. 13) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  172. Experts' rating: 2.5
  173. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  174. Dale's belief: The judicial system should retain the death penalty as an ultimate punishment.
  175.  
  176. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The judicial system should retain the death penalty because fear of capital punishment will serve as a strong deterrent for potential murderers.
  177.  
  178. Critic’s counter-argument: Evidence strongly suggests that murderers either kill impulsively or else they assume that they will never get caught (assume statement factually correct).
  179.  
  180. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: If murderers get the death penalty, they get what they deserve (assume statement factually correct).
  181.  
  182. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  183.  
  184. 14) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  185. Experts' rating: 1
  186. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  187. Dale's belief: Students should have a stronger voice than the general public in setting university policies.
  188.  
  189. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Because students are the ones who must ultimately pay the costs of running the university through tuition, they should have a stronger voice in setting university policies.
  190.  
  191. Critic’s counter-argument: Tuition covers less than one half the cost of an education at most state universities (assume statement factually correct), so the taxpayers should have a stronger say in the policies.
  192.  
  193. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Because it is the students who are directly influenced by university policies (assume statement factually correct), they are the ones who should have the stronger voice.
  194.  
  195. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  196.  
  197. 15) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  198. Experts' rating: 1
  199. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  200. Dale's belief: The legal voting age should not be raised from 18 years of age to 21.
  201.  
  202. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The legal voting age should not be raised because, when it comes to voting, 18 year olds are as responsible as 21 year olds.
  203.  
  204. Critic’s counter-argument: Eighteen year olds do not generally take their voting responsibilities seriously, since they rarely vote and have been repeatedly demonstrated to have little knowledge of current events (assume statement factually correct).
  205.  
  206. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Those eighteen year olds who do vote are relatively well informed and take their responsibilities seriously (assume statement factually correct).
  207.  
  208. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  209.  
  210. 16) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  211. Experts' rating: 3
  212. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  213. Dale's belief: The national debt should be reduced by cutting Congressional salaries.
  214.  
  215. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Congressional salaries are very high, and cutting them would make a significant step towards paying off the huge national debt.
  216.  
  217. Critic’s counter-argument: The national debt is so large that totally eliminating all Congressional salaries would still hardly make a dent in it (assume statement factually correct).
  218.  
  219. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: The members of Congress, whose actions are to a considerable extent responsible for the huge national debt, earn salaries several times higher than the national average (assume statement factually correct).
  220.  
  221. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  222.  
  223. 17) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  224. Experts' rating: 1
  225. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  226. Dale's belief: Today's sports superstars are grossly overpaid.
  227.  
  228. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: It is unfair for fans to have to pay the high ticket prices required to meet the extremely high salary demands of superstars.
  229.  
  230. Critic’s counter-argument: Because many fans will only support teams with superstars and winning records (assume statement factually correct), superstars earn their salaries.
  231.  
  232. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: The superstars of yesteryear were at least as good as those of today, yet they didn't earn millions of dollars a year (assume statement factually correct).
  233.  
  234. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  235.  
  236. 18) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  237. Experts' rating: 2
  238. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  239. Dale's belief: Labor unions should be eradicated because they are a major cause of the downfall of the U.S. economy.
  240.  
  241. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Labor unions are a major cause of the downfall of the U.S. economy because they force management to pay extravagantly high wages, which corporations simply cannot bear if they intend to remain competitive on the world market.
  242.  
  243. Critic’s counter-argument: Labor unions keep management from abusing and taking advantage of workers (assume statement factually correct), so they are necessary.
  244.  
  245. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Most of the abuses that took place in the past are now prevented by federal and state laws (assume statement factually correct); thus, unions are no longer needed for that purpose.
  246.  
  247. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  248.  
  249. 19) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  250. Experts' rating: 3
  251. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  252. Dale's belief: Capital punishment should be outlawed.
  253.  
  254. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Capital punishment should be outlawed because killing is wrong and the moral costs of sentencing an innocent person to death are too great.
  255.  
  256. Critic’s counter-argument: The prison system is very overcrowded, and it costs the state over $25,000 per prisoner each year to maintain each prisoner (assume statement factually correct).
  257.  
  258. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: The cost to the state of processing a capital punishment case through to completion averages about ten-million dollars in court and legal costs for each case (assume statement factually correct).
  259.  
  260. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  261.  
  262. 20) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  263. Experts' rating: 3
  264. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  265. Dale's belief: Smoking should be banned in all enclosed public places.
  266.  
  267. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: Smoking should be banned in all enclosed public places because even second hand smoke poses a significant health risk to nonsmokers.
  268.  
  269. Critic’s counter-argument: Since many smokers already refrain from smoking in places where their second hand smoke poses a health risk to others (assume statement factually correct), it is unnecessary to severely restrict smoking locations.
  270.  
  271. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: While it may be true that many smokers are considerate, it is equally true that many smokers are not so considerate (assume statement factually correct). Banning smoking would be an effective way to ensure that many of us won't be subjected to the risks posed by second hand smoke.
  272.  
  273. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  274.  
  275. 21) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  276. Experts' rating: 4
  277. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  278. Dale's belief: It is unfair for a new insurance policy holder to collect a huge insurance payment soon after obtaining the insurance policy.
  279.  
  280. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: It is unfair for a new insurance policy holder to collect a huge insurance payment soon after obtaining the insurance policy because the total amount they would have contributed to the insurance fund would not come close to covering the cost of the payment.
  281.  
  282. Critic’s counter-argument: Because only a small fraction of all new insurance policy holders have a need to collect on their policies, the large sums paid to the few new policy holders who need payment are covered by the insurance payments of the remaining new policy holders (assume statement factually correct).
  283.  
  284. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Individuals who have been insured with a company for a long period of time have contributed much more to the insurance fund than new policy holders (assume statement factually correct); thus, they are more deserving of high payments.
  285.  
  286. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  287.  
  288. 22) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  289. Experts' rating: 1
  290. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  291. Dale's belief: The government's lean burn project, which is developing a fuel efficient jet engine, should be continued.
  292.  
  293. Dale’s premise or justification for belief: The lean burn project should be continued because it could eventually result in much lower consumption of jet fuel, and could save $1.5 billion in a ten year period.
  294.  
  295. Critic’s counter-argument: While it is true that the lean burn project could save $1.5 billion in a ten year period, the cost of completing the project is going to exceed $2 billion (assume statement factually correct).
  296.  
  297. Dale’s rebuttal to Critic’s counter-argument: Because $4 billion has already been invested in the project (assume statement factually correct), it would be foolish to halt the project and waste the money already invested.
  298.  
  299. Indicate the strength of Dale’s rebuttal to the Critic’s counter-argument:
  300.  
  301. 23) A=Very Weak B=Weak C=Strong D=Very Strong
  302. Experts' rating: 1.5
  303.  
  304. CART Scoring:
  305.  
  306. A separate regression should be run for each participant with the 23 argument evaluation ratings as the criterion variable. The two predictor variables are the experts’ rating of the 23 items and the subject’s prior agreement with the 23 propositions, the former being the critical indicator of context-free reasoning performance on this measure. The beta weights for experts’ rating are scored as follows:
  307.  
  308. beta weights for experts’ rating ≥ .450 are scored as 5 points.
  309.  
  310. beta weights for experts’ rating < .450 and ≥ .350 are scored as 4 points.
  311.  
  312. beta weights for experts’ rating < .350 and ≥ .250 are scored as 3 points.
  313.  
  314. beta weights for experts’ rating < .250 and ≥ .150 are scored as 2 points.
  315.  
  316. beta weights for experts’ rating < .150 and > 0 are scored as 1 point.
  317.  
  318. beta weights for experts’ rating ≤ 0 are scored as 0 points.
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