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Schoof in power

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Jun 15th, 2025
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  1. Short answer
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  3. Yes. Although Prime‑Minister Dick Schoof tendered his cabinet’s resignation on 3 June 2025 after the coalition lost its majority, the King asked the ministers to remain in office in a demissionary (caretaker) capacity. Under Dutch constitutional practice a cabinet is considered “in power” until its successor is sworn in, even if it has fallen. Therefore, by the market’s wording, Cabinet Schoof is still in power on today’s date (15 June 2025) .
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  8. Why the market has not resolved yet
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  10. Key moment Constitutional effect Does the cabinet still count as “in power”?
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  12. 2 Jul 2024 – Cabinet Schoof sworn in Gains full (“missionary”) powers Yes
  13. 3 Jun 2025 – Coalition collapses; resignation offered and accepted Cabinet becomes demissionary. It may only handle day‑to‑day business but legally continues to govern until a new cabinet is installed Yes
  14. Future date – New cabinet sworn in after elections & formation Cabinet Schoof formally dismissed No (market resolves here)
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  20. When will Cabinet Schoof actually cease to be in power?
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  22. 1. Snap election fixed for 29 October 2025.
  23. The caretaker cabinet set this date after consulting the Electoral Council .
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  26. 2. Formation talks follow the election.
  27. Dutch coalition building is notoriously slow. Recent formation lengths:
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  29. Rutte IV (2021‑22): 299 days
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  31. Rutte III (2017): 225 days
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  33. Rutte II (2012): 54 days
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  36. The average of the last four formations is roughly 6 months. Even the quickest post‑war formation still took almost two months.
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  39. 3. Likely window for a successor cabinet
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  41. Scenario Earliest realistic date Latest plausible date*
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  43. Very fast (≈ 60 days) mid‑ Dec 2025 —
  44. Average (≈ 180 days) late‑ Apr 2026 —
  45. Prolonged (≈ 300 days) late‑ Aug 2026 —
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  48. *These are illustrative, not hard limits; Dutch formations have occasionally run longer.
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  51. 4. Resolution trigger for the market
  52. The market should resolve on the day the new cabinet is sworn in by the King. The act of swearing‑in formally ends Cabinet Schoof’s tenure; the earlier resignation date (3 June 2025) does not satisfy the criterion because the cabinet continues to govern as caretaker .
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  59. Practical takeaway for traders
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  61. As of 15 June 2025 the cabinet is still “in power”.
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  63. Resolution is most likely between December 2025 and spring 2026, but a protracted coalition negotiation could push the date into the summer of 2026.
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  65. Watch two milestones: final election results certification (early Nov 2025) and the eventual coalition agreement—Dutch media will announce the formateur’s acceptance by the King and the scheduled swearing‑in ceremony a few days in advance.
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