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Aexoden

FE League Playoff Implications 2018-08-28

Aexoden
Aug 26th, 2018
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  1. Free Enterprise League Playoff Implications
  2. 2018-08-28
  3.  
  4. The following data is rounded significantly. It's meant to give a rough overview
  5. of what happens depending on the outcome of the penultimate race. Clinching a
  6. position means that exact position. I will add "at least" if it's just a lower
  7. bound.
  8.  
  9. I'm only focusing on things affecting people who have a chance at 1st place, top
  10. 4, top 12, or the play-ins. If you're safely in 5th-8th, don't expect to see
  11. anything listed here.
  12.  
  13. dipwood
  14. * Has a 51/49 chance at 1st/2nd place if khobahi finishes 4th and rmccown finishes 3rd.
  15. * Has a 21/79 chance at 1st/2nd place if khobahi finishes 4th and rmccown finishes 2nd.
  16. * Has a 5/95 chance at 1st/2nd place if khobahi finishes 4th and rmccown finishes 1st.
  17. * Clinches exactly 2nd place if rmccown finishes 4th.
  18. * Has a 51/49 chance at 2nd/3rd place if khobahi finishes 1st or 2nd and rmccown finishes 3rd.
  19. * Has a 21/79 chance at 2nd/3rd place if khobahi finishes 1st or 3rd and rmccown finishes 2nd.
  20. * Has a 5/95 chance at 2nd/3rd place if khobahi finishes 2nd or 3rd and rmccown finishes 1st.
  21.  
  22. TheFiz
  23. * Has a 20% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 4th.
  24. * Has a 9% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 3rd.
  25. * Has a 2% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 2nd.
  26. * Eliminated from 4th place contention if rmccown finishes 1st.
  27.  
  28. khobahi
  29. * Clinches first by beating rmccown.
  30. * Has a 20% chance at first place if rmccown finishes 1st and khobahi finishes 2nd.
  31. * Has a 20% chance at first place if rmccown finishes 2nd and khobahi finishes 3rd.
  32. * Has a 5% chance at first place if khobahi finishes 3rd and rmccown finishes 1st.
  33. * Is otherwise relegated to 3rd or 4th place. 4th place is guaranteed if khobahi finishes 4th and rmccown wins.
  34.  
  35. ScratchDragon
  36. * Has a 4-5% chance at ending up in the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama wins and rmccown finishes 2nd or 3rd.
  37. * Otherwise, clinches at least 12th place.
  38.  
  39. elmagus
  40. * Clinches at least 12th place if rmccown finishes 4th and khobahi or Kirchin wins.
  41. * Has a 56% chance at ending up in the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama wins and rmccown finishes 4th.
  42. * Has a 67% chance at ending up in the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama wins and rmccown finishes 3rd.
  43. * Has a 71% chance at ending up in the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama wins and rmccown finishes 2nd.
  44. * Otherwise, has about a 4-5% chance at ending up in the 13-16 play-in.
  45.  
  46. Nightdew
  47. * Has roughly a 29-32% chance at avoiding a play-in if khobahi or rmccown wins and EizanTayama finishes 3rd or 4th.
  48. * Has a 0.4% chance of avoiding a play-in if rmccown finishes 4th and EizanTayama wins.
  49. * Has a 0.4% chance of avoiding a play-in if the finish order is khobahi, EizanTayama, Kirchin, rmccown.
  50. * Has a 0.4% chance of avoiding a play-in if the finish order is Kirchin, khobahi, EizanTayama, rmccown.
  51. * Is otherwise guaranteed a spot in the 13-16 play-in.
  52.  
  53. bigdunka
  54. * Has a 30% chance at falling to the 17-20 play-in if Kirchin wins and EizanTayama comes in 2nd.
  55. * Otherwise, clinches a spot in the 13-16 play-in.
  56.  
  57. couch_23
  58. * Clinches a spot in the 13-16 play-in if khobahi and rmccown finish in the top two spots.
  59. * Has a 95% chance of being in the 17-20 play-in if Kirchin and EizanTayama finish in the top two spots.
  60. * Otherwise, has about a 66% chance at being in the 13-16 play-in.
  61.  
  62. Dragondarch
  63. * Has a 19% chance at being in the 13-16 play-in if Kirchin finishes 3rd and EizanTayama finishes 4th.
  64. * Otherwise, clinches a spot in the 17-20 play-in.
  65.  
  66. chocosura
  67. * Clinches a spot in the 17-20 play-in if Kirchin finishes 4th.
  68. * Otherwise, is eliminated.
  69.  
  70. fcoughlin
  71. * Has a 30% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 4th.
  72. * Has an 11% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 3rd.
  73. * Has a 3% chance at 4th place if rmccown finishes 2nd.
  74. * Otherwise, will finish somewhere between 5th and 20th. Maybe that range is a little tighter, I didn't have the script tell me anything more.
  75. * Only other really interesting point is that he clinches at least 16th place if Kirchin finishes 3rd and EizanTayama finishes 4th.
  76.  
  77. rmccown
  78. * All sorts of stuff going on here, with potential finishes anywhere from 1st place to the 17-20 play-in. A lot will come down to the last race, but we'll know at least something by the end of tonight.
  79. * Has a 95% chance at 1st place with a win if khobahi finishes 3rd or 4th. If khobahi is 3rd, cannot get 2nd place overall. If khobahi is 4th, cannot get 3rd place overall. Regardless, would not finish worse than 3rd place.
  80. * Has an 80% chance at 1st place with a win if khobahi finishes 2nd. This scenario also clinches at least 3rd place.
  81. * Also has an 80% chance at 1st place if he finishes 2nd and khobahi doesn't win. In this case, there is a 5% chance at falling to 5th-8th.
  82. * Has a 48% chance at 1st place with a 3rd place finish if khobahi finishes 4th. This situation retains chances at as low as the 13-16 play-in.
  83. * All other scenarios finish no better than 2nd. All scenarios still include a chance at top 4.
  84. * Secures a spot in the top 12 with a 1st or 2nd place finish.
  85. * Can still have a 3.5% chance at ending up in the 17-20 play-in if the finishing order is Kirchin, EizanTayama, khobahi, rmccown.
  86.  
  87. EizanTayama
  88. * Clinches 5th-8th place with a win.
  89. * Has a 30% chance of at least 12th place with a 2nd place finish as long as Kirchin finishes 3rd or 4th.
  90. * Has a 0.5% chance of at least 12th place with a 2nd place finish if Kirchin wins and khobahi beats rmccown.
  91. * Clinches a spot in the 13-16 play-in with a 2nd place finish if Kirchin wins and rmccown beats khobahi.
  92. * Has a 66% chance at the 13-16 play-in (and a 33% chance at the 17-20 play-in) with a 3rd place finish if Kirchin finishes 4th.
  93. * Has a 4% chance at the 13-16 play-in (and a 96% chance at the 17-20 play-in) with a 3rd place finish otherwise.
  94. * Clinches a spot in the 17-20 play-in with a 4th place finish.
  95.  
  96. Xyrak
  97. * Is largely unaffected by this match, with a couple of interesting exceptions:
  98. * Always has about a 15% chance at 5th-8th. Cannot finish 9th-12th unless the finishing order is khobahi, Kirchin, EizanTayama, rmccown.
  99. * Largely has about a 30% chance at being in the 13-16 play-in (and a 50% chance at being in the 17-20 play-in).
  100. * If EizanTayama is 4th and Kirchin is 3rd, however, those odds change to 64/20.
  101.  
  102. Kirchin
  103. * Has a 30% chance of avoiding a play-in with a 1st place finish. (A 70% chance at the 13-16 play-in.)
  104. * Clinches a spot in the 13-16 play-in with a 2nd place finish if khobahi or rmccown wins.
  105. * Has a 66% chance at the 13-16 play-in (and a 33% chance at the 17-20 play-in) with a 2nd place finish if EizanTayama wins.
  106. * Clinches a spot in the 17-20 play-in with a 3rd place finish.
  107. * Is eliminated with a 4th place finish.
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