4/2/24-4/3/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

4/2/24-4/3/24 Update, day 769-770 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Romania is discussing massively increasing cross border traffic with UA, by way of additional roads and crossing sites.

The UA Foreign minister stated that negotiations and relations between his Hungarian counterparts are improving.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine/Politics:

RU intercepted 9/10 shaheds overnight, mostly near Dnipro.

UA signed legislation lowering the minimum age for Mobilization from 27 to 25, some 6 months after the bill was originally proposed. No formal mobilzation has been announced as of yet, with military and government officials making statements for and against it.

In March, RU fired 400 missiles, 600 shaheds, and 3000 glide bombs over UA.

UA MoD created a Military ombudsman position, in charge of protecting military personnel's rights.

In the first quarter of this year, UA's own funds were insufficient to cover $6.5 billion of state budget spending.

There was an additional $255 million USD of income via taxes and customs.

UA claims that RU currently has 100x SU-34, 100x Su-35, and 7x A-50u AWACS.

UA is reportedly producing some 8 155mm SPG's per month of the Bohdana class. The domestic platform has up to a 42 km range depending on ammo.

Per UA Energy production company DTEK, 80% of its power generating capability was taken offline during the RU missile strikes in March.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

RU attacked Kharkiv with Shaheds overnight, killing at least 3 rescue personnel when an apartment building was hit.

UA reported that the claims of Kharkiv being city evacuated due to power issues, are the work of RU disinfo services attempting to sow panic.

Suburban train services are resuming operation in Kharkiv. A Pair of siblings who were assisting an FSB officer with striking UA rail infrastructure were arrested.

RU dropped glide bombs in Sumy along the border, killin one.


Kupyansk/Lyman axis:

RU continues to not engage in offensives near Kupyansk, with forces prioritized towards Lyman.

Lyman repelled 9 RU assaults over the past day, apparently trying to vector further N rather then directly W towards Terny and the Zherebets river valley. UA drone ops and RU airstrikes continue in this sector.

A large RU mechanized assault was destroyed by a small battery of mortars and drones here, raising questions about how effective RU counterbattery fire is, and the shell expenditure ratio.

An RU bridge over the Zherebets river was destroyed by a drone strike.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU launched 18 assaults around Bakhmut in the last day, contesting territory in SW Ivanivske and additionally pushing across a field towards the Chasiv Yar suburb of Kanal.

Per UA commanders, RU is heavily utilizing glide bombs here as they were effective against built up structures in Avdiivka. RU hopes to gain the high ground around Chasiv yar so as to conduct fire missions.

RU launched 3x S300 missiles into Donetsk overnight.

About 875 people are currently in Chasiv Yar, the vast majority being elderly.


Avdiivka/Pokrovske:

RU launched 10 attacks here over the past day, with RU forces attempting to push further W of Tonenke and contesting berdychi, supported by TOS and airstrikes.

RU forces continue to push around Pervomaiske, as they are less burdened by natural terrain features and water.

The 47th brigade claims to have destroyed some 2 battalions worth of RU soldiers in March, fighting around Avdiivka. Specifically they destroyed-
1x tank
25x apcs
4x artillery

It is noted that the ratio of destroyed APC:Tank has recently climbed, indicating that RU tanks may be less present on the battlefield.


Donetsk City/occupied regions:

RU launched some 25 assaults towards the Novomykhailivka area over the past day, with a number of RU troops responsible for creating smokescreens being captured. RU appears to be attempting to push W of Novomykhailivka aided by artillery and airstrikes, with the bulk of attacks being low quantities of infantry and vehicles so as to avoid counterfire.

RU is reportedly trying to recruit some 14,000 police officers in the occupied territories, with some 2300 RU officers deployed. They are specifically being focused on railway protection, along with the 35,000 Rosgvardia forces.

Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU struck Dnipro with a Kh-59 missile, injuring 18 people and damaging a school. The students were in a shelter at the time, or would have been injured.

RU fired 389 times along the Zaporizhia Axis at 8 settlements, 101x by drones, and 268x artillery.

RU appears to have contested more territory to the S of Robotyne

A BUK air defense system was destroyed some 20km S of Enerhodar and the NPP.

There is currently a widespread cholera epidemic in Mariupol, brought on by the warming weather and lack of infrastructure. Children are particularly affected, as RU is trying to claim this is "biological warfare", but have not instituted boil advisorys or other public health actions.


Kherson:

RU attacked the Krynky bridgehead 4x over the last day.

UA Drone ops have expanded NE of Krynky and along the highway towards Korsunka


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU claims that 3 Karakurt class corvettes will join the black sea fleet this year. These modern ships can carry up to 8 Kalibr missiles, and the Askold of this class was hit by a cruise missile in november of last year. The lead ship of the class, the Cyclone, has not launched a single missile towards UA at this point.

UA saboteurs reportedly blew up an electrical substation in Sevastapol, causing local blackouts.

The Guardian reported that UA is preparing to target the Kerch bridge in the next several months.


Russia:

An apparent guided AN-22 aircraft hit dormitories at the RU Shahed drone production site in Tatarstan. It seems likely that GPS/GLNSS jamming was in play, and the lack of air defense activity was noted. While the site is some 1200 km from UA, RU rumors are that the aircraft was launched from Kazakhstan. Additional drone strikes hit an oil refinery site.

The Oblast governor told companies "Do not wait for the response of the air defence; it has other missions", and encouraged them to protect themselves.

Russia hopes to have its damaged oil refineries repaired by June.

RU is reportedly planning to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers by June.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 14 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 101 air strikes (including drones), and 126 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

710 x soldiers (Total 444,370) [7 day avg 786].
18x APC
11x Tank
1x Air defense
32x Artillery (2xMLRS)
30x vehicles
17x UAV

Estimated cost: $69.3 million USD

total estimated cost- $95.2 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.9 Billion USD total over last 30 days.


Overseas:

The government of Latvia has approved a new aid package for Ukraine in the amount of 9.6 million euros

Representatives of China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia are privately pushing the EU to continue resisting pressure from the US and UK to seize more than €200 billion of Russian state assets it immobilised after February 2022, worried about future precedence being applied to them.