4/30/24-5/1/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

4/30/24-5/1/24 Update, day 798-799 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Poland approved extended protection for UA refugees until Sept 30, 2025. Child financial support will be conditional on said child being actively enrolled in the Polish school system.

Lithuania would be willing to work with UA on returning men of conscription age to UA under certain circumstances to be discussed.

A UA organization which was supplying fake passports and smuggling people both into the EU and RU controlled territory in Zaporizhia was extradited from Bulgaria.

Curfew has been extended in W UA on Easter (May 5), among reports of possible RU activity.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

Reportedly RU missile stockpiles and production are currently:

Onyx CM 400+ 10/mo

Kalibr CM 270 + 30-40/mo

Zircon Hypersonic 40 + 10/mo

Kh-69 CM 45 + 3/mo


The UA Foreign Ministry clarified that passports will be reissued to UA citizens abroad of conscription age, once they submit their data to UA military authorities.

UA additionally stated they will not seek to forcibly return men from abroad for mobilization, and stated that supplying personal data to the military commissions is not a guarantee of mobilization and deployment.

UA allocated an additional $391 million USD to drone production this year. This will supply some 300,000 drones to the ZSU, and brings the total allocated to $1.48 billion USD for the year (approx 1.2 million drones worth).

UA will reportedly recruit additional female soldiers to work in a demining capacity, as part of a joint project with Canada. Canada allocated $28.6 million for demining in 2024.

The State Border service announced the creation of another combat brigade, "Hart".

NATO Secretary general Jens Stoltenberg visited the UA National Defense University in Kyiv.

Deputy Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Isobel Coleman arrived in Kyiv.

UA dismissed the head of a Cyber Security tasking, after it was revealed he had likely assisted Pro-Yanukovych Berkut forces during 2014 Maidan protests. He had also tried to mobilize the journalist who reported this information, which became a scandal of its own.

There were numerous bomb threats to governors offices in Sumy, Vinnitsya, and Rivne.

UA is stepping up security in Kyiv for Easter, with an increased police presence anticipated, especially around religious institutions.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

Reportedly the largest activity of RU SOF and recon troops is occuring around the Sumy border region.

Kharkiv continues to have rotating power cuts for some 203,000 customers. Power generation is being supplemented by solar and wind farms.


Kupyansk/Lyman:

RU has reportedly amassed up to 20,000 troops in the NE of the Kharkiv region. UA repelled some 11 attacks over the past day in this direction. The overall # of troops has not materially changed in this direction, as troops are redeployed elsewhere.

A UA ATACMS strike wiped out a company of RU soldiers in Rohove, NE Luhansk oblast.

RU shelled the Kupyansk, killing two elderly women.

RU launched 10 attacks out of Kreminna and towards the forests. UA launched a counterassault SE of Yampolivka, capturing territory and some POW's.




Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU launched some 14 assaults W of Bakhmut.

Per the 4th RRB commanders, RU ops have decreased in intensity in recent days towards Chasiv Yar, due to the presence of UA defenses. However, RU continues to attempt efforts to bypass the city itself, and RU SOF has increased night operations.

The bulk of RU activity appears near in the forest belts to the N and S of Kanal exurbs. RU increased its incendiary shelling of UA positions across the river in Chasiv yar proper, which currently give UA forces good observation and altitude over RU forces.

The first wave of assaults is generally conscript units like Storm-Z, followed by conventional RU forces, with later waves including mechanized and VDV forces. Generally the better forces only get deployed once the lesser units manage to secure an initial foothold.

RU may be preparing an operation to push from Ocherytne towards Konstanynivka.

Reportedly some 682 people remain in Chasiv Yar, and 0 children. 70% of the remaining population is above 60 years old.


Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:

RU continues to heavily focus on this area, launching some 33 assaults to the W of Avdiivka.

Ru forces have continued to push through and NW of Ocheretyne, advancing along the highway and towards Novoolexandrivka, likely exploiting a lack of UA defensive lines.


Donetsk city/Occupied regions:

RU launched 17 assaults to the NW and SW of Marinka.

RU has announced a competition for schoolchildren in the occupied territories, where if children record messages praising the RU armed forces or Putin, they can receive trips to Crimea. It is expected these video messages will be used for propaganda purposes.



Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU launched 2 assaults towards Staromaiorske and Robotyne. RU launched 383 attacks on 6 settlements, 136x with drones and 232x with artillery.

UA is building 5 underground schools in the Zaporizhia region, for the cost of 12.5 million USD.


Kherson:

RU launched 5 assaults on the UA bridgehead at Krynky.

RU reportedly tried to storm the Dnipro river island of Nestrygu, located SW of the village of Kizomys near the mouth of the Dnipro, but were repelled. UA forces have more aggressively been clearing the islands towards the mouth of the river. UA drone activity has also increased closer towards the Kinburn peninsula.

RU shelled a resort village in Mykolaiv, damaging a power line.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

UA attacked Dzhankoi with missiles, the site of an air defense battery and a helicopter unit.

RU attacked Odesa Nova Poshta offices with ballistic missiles, killing 3 and wounding 13 more.

There are currently no RU ships in the Black or Azov seas.

Due to a lack of visitors to Crimean resorts, only RU state employees are attending, buoyed by 40% discounts in Yalta and Saki.


Russia:

RU has reportedly increased its production of weapons production and ammo, thanks to dual purpose goods from china.

UA drones attacked the Ryazan oil refinery, starting a fire. This is the second time in 2 months the refinery was hit.

RU consumer fuel prices have increased, with diesel raising some 10% the last week and gas hitting a 6 month high of 20% up on the year. Diesel fuel and oil exports from RU ports fell by 26% in April to 3.07 million tonnes. (28% in the baltic and 15% in Black sea)

Reportedly the bulk of Nepalese foreign fighters in the RU army have deserted following costly "meat assaults" and extrajudicial executions by commanders, along with nonpayment of wages.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 8 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 43 air strikes (including drones), and 42 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

1320 x soldiers (Total 469,840 day avg 1129]
21x APC
5x Tank
1x Air defense
13x Artillery (0xMLRS)
33x vehicles
7x UAV

estimated cost: $43.2 million USD

total estimated cost- $83.0 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.5 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:

The US confirmed that UA is already receiving weapons from the latest aid package.

Zelensky thanked Norway for increasing support to UA by $600 million USD this year, mainly for air defenses.

Latvia will allocate 0.25% of its GDP to UA support going forward. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia said that Western partners have already transferred weapons to Ukraine, which have no restrictions on strikes on Russian territory.

Left-wing German extremists allegedly set fire to the garden house of Armin Papperger, managing director of Rheinmetall, due to support for UA.

Czech President Pavel called EU expansion a "geostrategic necessity", specifically referring to "Western Balkan states, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia".

On April 30th the US Senate voted to pass a law banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia. Some exceptions are carved out until 2028.

The Georgian parliament approved a "Foreign Agent" law which is viewed as highly repressive to media and public organizations and protestors, in a shift towards RU influence by the ruling parliament. There have been running tear gas and rubber bullet battles around Tblisi between security forces and protestors. Its alleged that pro-RU people are being bussed in from rural Georgia and paid to support the proposed law. The Georgian president threatened to veto the law if it reaches her desk.

UA is preparing 7 new bilateral security agreements, including the US