Welcome To Playoff DFS

If you are not a regular listener of our Absolutely Epic Early-Week Podcast, you’re probably not missing out on much. The podcast largely entails BobbyFi, Gneiffer07, and myself trying (and failing) to be funny. Hey, we record the darn thing on Monday night – there’s not much information or deep thought available for us to draw on at that point in the week, so can you blame us for trying to provide a bit of levity?
I don’t bring that up because I’m trying to get you to become a regular listener of the pod (if I were trying to get you to become a regular listener, I would have talked about it around Week 2 or 3, instead of waiting until the regular season ended; oops!), but I bring it up because this week, Bobby, Grant, and I talked a bit about Playoff DFS at the beginning. All three of us have experienced a nice level of success in Playoff DFS over the last couple years, and we ended up sharing some basic thoughts this week – early in the pod – about the differences between playoff DFS and regular DFS. It’s worth a listen if you have never played playoff DFS before, or if you are looking for ways to improve your Playoff DFS play (jump to the five-minute mark if you have absolutely no interest in the three of us joking around at the start of the show…).
With that out of the way, let’s dive into this week: a four-game slate that provides a lot of opportunity for chalk…and a lot of opportunity to sneak in some different directions than the field.
Raiders at Texans

Vegas-Implied Total: Texans 20.0, Raiders 16.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Texans Run D – 17th DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 15th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D – 5th DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 4th DVOA / 20th Yards per pass attempt
Raiders Run D – 18th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O – 27th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D – 25th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Texans Pass O – 30th DVOA / 32nd Yards per pass attempt
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Let’s start with this:
This is one of the lowest Over/Unders we have seen all season. In fact, I can only recall one game all year that was pegged lower than this one (there may have been a few more than one, but there weren’t many). This obviously tells us that this is not a premium spot for DFS goodness this weekend – but it also tells us that most people will be staying away from this spot. As such, we are going to look at a few elements that may be usable in this game – a few elements that may turn into the types of low-owned, high-scoring plays that end up winning you an NFL Playoff DFS slate.
The first thing we should note here, of course, is that each team is likely to lean heavily on the run. The Raiders cannot stop the run (25th in yards allowed per carry, 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game, and 25th in rushing touchdowns allowed), while the Texans are going to get a healthy Lamar Miller back on the field, and are stuck playing Brock Osweiler at quarterback again. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders’ season has rapidly changed: two weeks ago, they were locked into a strong chance for a first-round bye, and a solid shot at the #1 seed; they were one of the top four or five “teams to beat” for the Super Bowl this year. Then, they lost Derek Carr they lost Matt McGloin…then they lost to the Broncos. Now, they’re the #5 seed, going on the road with a rookie third-string quarterback who had never even practiced some of the plays he had to run on the field this last week. That’s the bad news for the Raiders. The good news is that they have a strong offensive line, and run defense is the relative weakness of this Texans defensive unit. Unless the Texans jump out to a big lead, we can expect the Raiders to lean heavily on the ground.
Can the Texans jump out to a big lead? I say no – not to such an extent that the Raiders will be forced to abandon the run, at least. This is an important question to ask yourself, however (ask yourself if you disagree with me on this point), as the complexion of this game changes if the Texans do jump out to a big lead. In that instance, the Raiders’ run game would become far less attractive, and the Raiders’ pass game would become a sneaky bet for production (more on that in a bit).
While the Texans are expected to lean run-heavy, it is not as if they are going to abandon the pass completely. We should still see around 30 to 35 pass attempts for Brock Osweiler – which can provide some value for pass catchers, particularly in full-PPR scoring. Over the last few weeks, the Texans have renewed their focus on scheming the ball to DeAndre Hopkins (with the exception being their game against a Bengals defense that absolutely does not allow targets to wide receivers). This matchup presents a bit of a middle ground for Nuk; the Raiders are strong on the outside (they rank Top 12 in DVOA on both the right and left sides of the field; they rank 27th over the middle), and they are mediocre against wide receivers (presenting a fairly neutral matchup). Nuk is a dart throw this week, though he’s one I don’t have a high amount of faith will actually hit.
Will Fuller, on the other hand, has the kind of speed that has burned the Raiders’ big corners this season, but he does not possess the sort of shiftiness that really gives them fits. He’s also a dart throw – one who won’t cost you as much as Nuk, but also won’t see as many targets. He’s the sort of boom-or-bust play that could make or break your weekend – but while I think he could certainly hit in this spot, we can be fairly sure he won’t post the kind of weekend that will leave you with no path to first place if you don’t have him.
The best place to look in this matchup is right over the middle – which leaves you with a choice between the Texans’ little-used slot receivers (Keith Mumphery, with Wendall Williams playing 17 snaps last week and looking poised to steal a bit of work), or the Texans’ tight ends. I am most intrigued by the tight ends this week, with C.J. Fiedorowicz in particular stepping into a good matchup with a solid amount of expected usage.
The ground game is easy to like for the Texans, and because we can safely project that the Raiders’ offense will not leap out to a big lead, we can also safely project a heavy workload for Lamar Miller. A healthy Miller stepping into a large workload against a bad run defense is a recipe for high ownership on a small slate, but it’s also a recipe for a big game. You cannot avoid the chalk completely on a slate this size; instead, you need to be strategic about the chalky spots you side with and the places you pivot to move away from chalk. Miller is certainly a chalky play I won’t mind finding on my roster this weekend. If you want to get sneaky, you could also roster Alfred Blue; I expect the Texans to be comfortable giving 26 to 28 touches to Miller in a playoff game, but if you think they’ll hold Miller to 20 touches (or if you think the Texans will hold a lead all game), Blue could easily see 10 to 12 touches of his own, making him a sneaky value play.
While there is a slim chance the running back touches are divvied up on the Houston side, there is a near-100% certainty that the running back touches will be divvied up on the other side, where the last three weeks (starting with the most recent) have seen Latavius Murray receive touch totals of six, 17, and 14, while DeAndre Washington has seen nine, 13, and six, and Jalen Richard has seen four, nine, and 10. Over the last two weeks, snap count rankings have looked like this:
47 snaps – Latavius
46 snaps – DeAndre
27 snaps – Jalen
It is worth noting that the Texans have been poor at the line of scrimmage against the run, but have been solid at the second and third levels. This plays more toward the strengths of Latavius than of DeAndre, though I think there is a strong chance DeAndre (who out-snapped Latavius last week – though, granted, DeAndre is a more dangerous pass-catching threat, and the Raiders fell down big early) will see extra work this week. He has been the most valuable asset in this run game over the last few weeks. In tourneys, DeAndre Washington makes sense as a solid-floor (point-per-dollar) play with tourney-winning upside. If recent usage holds, he’s unlikely to do a massive amount for your team, but he should be able to keep from hurting your team, too; and if his usage increases, he could be a game-changer. Latavius is obviously in play as well, as he could easily see 20 touches this week (especially if the Raiders are able to keep this game close), and he finished the season tied for fifth in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard-line. You could even use Jalen Richard as a long-shot, large-field-tourney play, as he has the ability to bust a long touchdown any time he touches the ball.
Only four teams in the NFL allowed fewer catches to wide receivers than the Texans allowed this last year. Only five teams allowed fewer touchdowns to wide receivers, and only one team allowed fewer yards. This is not even remotely the same matchup the Raiders had last week against the Broncos, as the Broncos’ pass defense was legendarily good against wide receivers this season (for example: the Texans rank sixth in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, at 13; the Broncos rank first, having allowed only seven; every other team in the NFL allowed 11 or more). Still, it’s not an easy matchup.
With that said, ownership is likely to be low on Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree this week. Houston is stronger over the middle than they are on the outside, so while Connor Cook would surely like to be able to check down to Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, the Texans are sure to try to take away the run and the checkdown options. I don’t have much faith in Crabtree and Cooper this week, even with each guy sure to be peppered with targets, but each guy still needs to be strongly considered for your rosters, given that each guy is an elite talent and will see relatively low ownership on this slate.
Finally, it is worth noting that the Texans rank second in DVOA against the tight end and fifth against the pass as a whole…but they rank 28th in DVOA against running backs out of the backfield. Add another check mark to the columns for Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington as tourney fliers this week.
Lions at Seahawks

Vegas-Implied Total: Seahawks 25.5, Lions 17.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Seahawks Run D – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O – 25th DVOA / 27th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D – 13th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Lions Pass O – 13th DVOA / 14th Yards per pass attempt
Lions Run D – 23rd DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O – 23rd DVOA / 24th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D – 32nd DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Seahawks Pass O – 16th DVOA / 6th Yards per pass attempt
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I find it interesting that we will see a ton of excitement this week over the Steelers’ passing offense…but will see very little excitement over the Lions’ passing offense. Yes, the Steelers are at home, and the Lions are traveling to a tough road environment. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger generally has a higher ceiling than Matthew Stafford. But…matchup? Don’t even talk to me about the Steelers “clearly having a better matchup.”
Let’s take a look:
The Seahawks’ pass D ranks 13th in DVOA and 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Dolphins’ pass D ranks 14th in DVOA and 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Seahawks have allowed 204 catches and 2,627 yards to wide receivers this year.
The Dolphins have allowed 199 catches and 2,607 yards to wide receivers.
Quarterbacks have passed for 4,066 yards against the Dolphins, while they have passed for 3,884 against the Seahawks. The big difference is touchdowns. The Dolphins have allowed 30 through the air (with 18 to wide receivers), while the Seahawks have allowed only 16 touchdowns through the air (13 to wide receivers).
Granted, that’s a big “difference.” Touchdowns are important in DFS. Also, if Byron Maxwell misses this week for the Dolphins (which is looking more and more likely), the matchup for the Steelers becomes enormously better. And even if Maxwell returns, the Steelers have a better matchup than the Lions – no question about it. But the gap in “matchup” is not as great as most will automatically assume, and on a four-game slate where you are looking to find the low-owned play that is likely to pop off for a big game, the Lions are a strong place to look. The Seahawks’ pass defense has been especially susceptible since losing Earl Thomas, and they rank 22nd in DVOA against the short passing game (which is good for PPR and even half-PPR, and is good for the Lions’ passing offense that is built around short passes). Marvin Jones will run the majority of his routes at the weakest part of the Seahawks’ secondary (away from Richard Sherman), Golden Tate will be peppered with targets, and Anquan Boldin finished the season ranked third in the NFL in red zone targets; he’ll provide a solid floor this week from the short targets he’ll see, and he is always the best bet on this team for a receiving touchdown.
The other guy to mention in this pass game is Eric Ebron, who sees very little red zone usage, but has seen target totals over the last five weeks (starting with the most recent) of six, 12, seven, five, and six. He’ll provide a nice floor in a decent matchup. I’ll almost certainly stay away from Matthew Stafford, as the overall upside of this passing attack is much lower than can be found in other spots, but there is certainly a strong chance that one of the individual pass catchers from this team pops off for one of the stronger games on the weekend at their position.
While the Seahawks are strong against the run and are strong at defending running backs out of the backfield (fourth in DVOA against the position), there is something to be said for cheap usage at the running back position. On paper, Zach Zenner is not a strong play, but he should see close to (or over) 20 touches as the clear lead back in this offense, and he should see four or five targets. There is certainly a path to a 20-point game from Zenner this week.
The Seahawks have a wasted running game at this point, and if I miss out on a big game from Thomas Rawls because of this belief, so be it. While the Lions’ surface numbers against the run look exploitable, they have allowed only five rushing touchdowns to running backs this year (second-best in the NFL; in fact, half the teams in the NFL have allowed more than double the rushing touchdowns the Lions have allowed to running backs). The Lions also don’t invite rushing attempts, as only three teams in the NFL have faced fewer rush attempts. Finally, it is worth noting that Rawls was losing touches to J.D. McKissic, Marcel Reece, and Alex Collins before the Seahawks started “resting starters” last week. I’m off Rawls this week (I’ll let you know if that changes), but if you want to use him, the case that can be made goes something like this: “He’s a starting running back against a team that can be had on the ground; he’s a home favorite, and he has the ability to put up a big game.”
The Seahawks’ pass game is far more interesting, as we should see Russell Wilson asked to take over this game for this currently-treading-water version of the Seahawks. Detroit is beatable at all levels of the field, and with all positions. This is a bit of a bummer, honestly, as it does not narrow down our field of options for us (it’s always great to find a defense that can be specifically attacked in one particular area, against an offense that is adaptable enough to attack in that particular area; because most of our DFS counterparts do not bother to dig in that deep, it provides a great opportunity to gain an edge – whereas a spot such as this brings in a lot more guesswork than we would optimally like). I expect the Seahawks to lean most heavily on Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham (whom – from things Pete Carroll has said, and from last week’s usage – they seem to want to get going again), and I also think we’ll see Paul Richardson receive the six to eight targets that would have gone to Tyler Lockett (making him a high-upside play this week). With Baldwin playing primarily in the slot, he’ll largely avoid Darius Slay, and with Richardson being a speed threat, the impact of Slay’s coverage is minimized. You could even make a case for Jermaine Kearse in this spot, simply because everyone in this pass game has a solid matchup this week. I prefer Russ, Jimmy, Baldwin, and Richardson as plays over Kearse, but I wouldn’t hate it if you wanted to take a shot on a guy who sees six or seven targets each game…and who somehow has only one red zone catch all season in spite of a whopping 14 targets. Regression has to be coming at some point – right?
Dolphins at Steelers

Vegas-Implied Total: Steelers 28.0, Dolphins 18.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Steelers Run D – 11th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O – 16th DVOA / 8th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D – 12th DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Dolphins Pass O – 17th DVOA / 7th Yards per pass attempt
Dolphins Run D – 22nd DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O – 8th DVOA / 15th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D – 14th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Steelers Pass O – 8th DVOA / 13th Yards per pass attempt
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Of course, the perception of the Steelers having a far better matchup than the Lions is not the only thing that will drive ownership this direction. There is also the fact that the Steelers have a Vegas-implied total that is more than 10 points higher than that of the Lions.
The big question this week, of course, is not whether or not you should roster the Steelers’ players (the Steelers, after all, are projected to score at least eight more points than five of the other seven teams on the slate), but is instead: “Which Steelers players are the best ones for me?”
Part of the discussion here has to be that the Steelers are fairly likely to take (and hold) a big lead in this game. If we ignore their record, “the Steelers at home” probably stand alongside the Patriots as the team to beat in the AFC – and that’s the position the Steelers find themselves in this week (for Chiefs fans: you have an argument as well, though given that I don’t hate a “Steelers at Chiefs” matchup for the Steelers next round, and I don’t hate a “Chiefs at Patriots” matchup for the Pats, it’s tough to call the Chiefs the other “team to beat”; I expect we will see the Patriots and Steelers in the AFC Championship game). At the same time, this doesn’t mean that the Steelers will automatically be taking their foot off the gas early. Furthermore, if the Steelers take a big, early lead, there is a good chance it comes as a result of the pass game putting up big, early points. While Vance Joseph is a great defensive coordinator and has done an excellent job with this unit, I’ll be looking for a way to fit Antonio Brown into my lineup if Byron Maxwell is set to miss this game. If Maxwell plays, we should note that the Dolphins rank top six in DVOA on both the left and right side of the field, and only have a (relative) weakness over the middle. I won’t ever bet against Brown having a strong game, but given that we will have to pick some appealing, high-priced guys to fade this week, Brown will probably be one of the guys I will choose if Maxwell plays.
Furthermore, Maxwell playing would swing me more heavily onto Le’Veon Bell, who is a strong bet for production either way, but is even more valuable if the Steelers have a less-than-easy time through the air. You will see above that the Dolphins finished the season ranked 31st in yards allowed per carry; what that number does not tell you is that there was no 32nd-ranked team this year, as the Dolphins managed to tie…with the “historically bad” 49ers run defense…for dead last in yards allowed per carry. While we have talked about how the Dolphins tighten up their defensive front near the goal line, it’s tough to ignore Le’Veon Bell against the worst yards-per-carry run defense in the NFL. Add in the fact that Bell runs plenty of wide receiver routes over the middle (where the Dolphins’ pass defense is weakest), and he projects as the strongest raw-points play on the slate.
Tight ends have also gone to work on the Dolphins, as they rank 21st in DVOA against the position, and only two teams in the NFL allowed more receiving touchdowns by tight ends this year than the Dolphins allowed. Their 916 yards allowed to tight ends also ranks 12th-worst. This is a strong spot for Ladarius Green as he returns from his concussion.
Editor’s Note: Ladarius Green is still in the concussion protocol and is unlikely to play this weekend.

Eli Rogers and Cobi Hamilton are afterthoughts in this offense when all other pieces are healthy, though Hamilton certainly has splash play potential (same goes for Sammie Coates – who is returning this week and is expected to be behind Hamilton, but could be a sneaky bet to jump back on the field in three-wide sets). I think we can do better than these guys, but they certainly deserve mention.
While Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards against the Steelers earlier this year, this is not the same Dolphins offensive line that faced the Steelers that week, and – perhaps even more importantly (given that the current Dolphins O-line helped spring Ajayi for a second 200-yard outing against the Bills a couple weeks ago) – this is not the same Steelers run defense. Even in spite of that 200-yard game, the Steelers finished the season 18th-best in rushing yards to running backs (not a great number, but a solid mark when a 200-yard game is part of the mix). The Steelers have allowed a non-elite 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs, while ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in catches allowed to running backs. There is certainly a case to be made for Ajayi, but he’s likely someone I will only end up on myself if ownership projections start creeping down closer to the weekend. Game flow is not expected to be in his favor, and we also need to keep in mind that Ajayi has only one game in his last six over 61 yards.
It is likelier that the Dolphins will be forced into a pass-heavy game plan as the Steelers take a lead, and while Matt Moore is expected to be under center, this really isn’t a huge downgrade from what we could have expected if Ryan Tannehill were healthy.
The Steelers have been above-average, but non-elite, defending all areas of the field. The bigger question, then, becomes target distribution – and the first thing that should stand out to us is that someone seems to have pressed the wrong button on the price for Jarvis Landry on DraftKings. Given Landry’s lower touchdown upside and the overall softer pricing on FanDuel, he’s not as appealing over there, but on DraftKings, Landry represents another “likely chalky play I won’t mind sticking with on my roster.” He should see double-digit targets, and he always has the ability to bust a big gain.
In Moore’s three starts, we have seen target counts shake out as follows:
22 – Jarvis Landry
18 – Kenny Stills
17 – DeVante Parker
(Dion Sims has seen eight targets; no one else has seen more than that.)
These are noteworthy numbers – particularly in that Stills and Parker have seen their targets hold pretty steady from game to game – as Stills and Parker should both go fairly overlooked by the field. Keep an eye on ownership projections closer to the weekend, and feel free to jump on either guy in tourneys if you like what you’re seeing. The floor here is low, in a non-easy matchup with a backup quarterback, but both of these guys have serious upside in this spot.
Giants at Packers

Vegas-Implied Total: Packers 24.5, Giants 20.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Packers Run D – 14th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O – 26th DVOA / 30th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D – 22nd DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Giants Pass O – 21st DVOA / 24th Yards per pass attempt
Giants Run D – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 5th DVOA / 7th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D – 4th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 7th DVOA / 16th Yards per pass attempt
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This is an interesting situation, in that on the one hand we have Aaron Rodgers at home in a playoff game…but on the other hand, we have a Giants pass defense that finished the season:
Fourth in DVOA
Seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt
Second in passing touchdowns allowed
Fourth in interceptions
Third in passing touchdowns allowed to wide receivers
The one thing in this matchup that does swing interest more heavily toward the Packers’ passing game for me is the fact that Ben McAdoo fell face-first into the “up-tempo is automatically better” fallacy – which has left him running a fast-paced offense in spite of having one of the most ineffective offensive units in the NFL…and has led to the Giants ranking 27th in opponent plays per game. Consequently, the Giants faced the eighth-most pass attempts in the NFL – and given that the Packers have all but given up on running a balanced offense, we can feel comfortable predicting that Aaron Rodgers will A) have the ball plenty, and B) pass a lot.
From a game theory perspective, the Packers are actually pretty hands-off, as current projections in RotoGrinders Premium have:
Aaron Rodgers as the highest-owned quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings
Jordy Nelson as the highest-owned wide receiver on both sites
Davante Adams as the third-highest-owned wide receiver on both sites
In one of the toughest matchups a passing offense can have, that’s a bit silly. But then, game theory is not everything, and there is a reason these guys are projected to be so highly-owned: All three are consistently good, even in difficult matchups.
As I work on rosters this week, I will be starting my “fades” with the Packers’ passing game, but I will also work on plenty of teams that include one or two (or three) elements from this passing attack. Again: the matchup is difficult enough (the Giants rank fourth in DVOA over the middle, second in DVOA defending the deep ball, fourth defending the short passing game, and 10th outside the numbers on both the left and right side of the field) that fading high-owned guys makes a lot of sense. But it also makes sense – particularly on DraftKings, where late swap is available – to use these guys (with late swap, you could swap to lower-owned guys if you need a late boost, or could stick with the higher-owned guys if you are sitting pretty). As for usage, there isn’t much to break down here: Jordy should see his regular double-digit targets, while Davante should see his regular six to eight looks. Aaron Rodgers finished the regular season behind only Drew Brees in red zone pass attempts, while Jordy finished first in red zone targets and inside-the-10 targets, and Davante was not far behind him.
If Randall Cobb plays, he’s an enormously difficult sell as a guy who has seen his usage plummet, and will be playing hobbled against a strong pass defense – over the middle of the field, where they are toughest. If Cobb sits, Geronimo Allison should be somewhat popular after he punctuated the winning Millionaire Maker lineup this last weekend, but he also makes for an intriguing flier, as the Giants are sure to focus on taking away Jordy first and Davante second. “Trust” is a huge factor in the Packers’ pass game, and we have seen for years that guys Rodgers does not “trust” do not see the ball; this last week, Rodgers talked about how much trust he has in Allison.
Finally, realize that the Giants rank Top Seven in DVOA against all three wide receiver positions (as well as against running backs out of the backfield), but they rank 26th against the tight end. Jared Cook is never going to be the first guy Rodgers looks to in the red zone, but the Packers have put Cook on the field plenty lately when facing teams that are poor against the tight end, and we should expect a high snap rate (and a solid number of targets) this week. He’s a potential game-changer this weekend.
The Packers’ run game is a tougher sell for me, as the Giants are just as good against the run as they are against the pass, and the Packers are going to win or lose this game on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, not on the legs of Ty Montgomery (if the Packers lose because Rodgers has a bad game, no one will blame them for leaning on the former MVP; if the Packers lose because they relied too heavily on Montgomery instead of letting Rodgers take over, it will haunt the team and their fans all offseason). Montgomery has fallen out of the pass game rotation lately, and the Giants are strong defending running backs out of the backfield. I love Montgomery as a player, but I don’t love him as a DFS play this week.
The running back situation on the other side of the ball is a lot more worthy of our attention, as Paul Perkins has seen 71 snaps over the last two weeks (compared to 69 for Rashad Jennings), and has seen 37 touches (compared to 32 for Jennings). The Giants need to give up on the idea of Rashad, and I don’t think they have fully realized this yet; but it does seem things are trending toward Perkins being the lead back this week, which gives him some strong, sneaky upside against a middling Packers run defense.
Of course, the big guy to look to on the Giants is the NFL’s target leader, Odell Beckham. One year after I rarely rostered Beckham because he rarely saw double-digit targets, he took over the Giants’ offense, seeing double-digit targets in nine games this year. The only reason this hasn’t received more attention is because Eli Manning may have had the worst season of his career. Beckham did finish sixth in the NFL in yards after catch, however, while the Packers finished in the bottom-third of the league in preventing yards after catch. This is a great spot to fire up Beckham – especially if you expect the Packers to storm out to an offensive explosion, which will require the Giants to pass a ton to keep up (basically, if you roster Rodgers, you should be looking for a way to roster Beckham as well).
Elsewhere on the Giants, Victor Cruz should see around four targets, while Sterling Shepard should see around five; either guy could spike a bit higher if this turns into an unlikely shootout. But for me, the focus on this offense is primarily on Beckham and Perkins (with a sneaky chance Eli Manning busts out for a big playoff game as well, in a favorable spot) – without a ton of interest anywhere else.
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Thanks for hanging out. I’ll see you back here next week – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JM Tohline (JMToWin)
JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.
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