Spading Shen (Again)

Theory:
Shen #1 guaranteed on first turn in the zone
Shen #2 available on turn 5 (~50% chance) and guaranteed on turn 6 (100% chance)
Shen #3 available on turn 10 (~50% chance) and guaranteed on turn 11 (100% chance [probably])
Shen #4 available on turn 14 (~50% chance?) and guaranteed on turn 15 (100% chance)

1 Shen #1 intro (took turn)
(got snake)
2 fan dancer
3 waiter
used 10 disguises(no shen)
4 bartender
5 used a bunch of disguises and got Shen #2 (4 turns of delay and ~50% chance of superlikely, going to 100% after another turn)
(got snake)
6 waiter
7 penguin
used 10 disguises
8 ninja
9 used a disguise then killed a penguin by accident
10 2 disgusies and Shen ##3#
(got snake)
11 fan girl
disguises (10) no shen
12 bartender
disgusies (10) no shen
13 waiter
disgusies (10) no shen
14 bartender
15 a few disguises and got Shen #4 (this is just a 50% reroll between 2 100% Superlikelies)

1 Shen #1 intro
(got snake)
2 fan
3 waiter
4 penguin
5 3 rerolls into Shen #2
(got snake)
6 penguin
7 ninja
8 a bunch of disgusies and then bartender
9 disgusies (10) fan
10 4 disguises before Shen #3
(got snake)
11 penguin
12 bartender
(tons of disguises here)
13 dancer
14 Shen #4 after like 7 disguises

1 Shen #1
(got snake)
2 ninja
3 dancer
4 combat
5 bartender
6 Shen #2
(got snake)
7 bartender
8 waiter
9 dancer
10 Shen #3
(got snake)
11 ninja
12 fan
13 penguin
14 20+ disguises and Bartender
15 Shen #4