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Monday, April 25th

Happy Monday everyone! Mondays are oftentimes a hit-or-miss MLB day, as we see teams get days off somewhat regularly. However, we have a healthy 13 game Monday slate this week, so let’s get right down to business!
Bold Call Winner

Well, I tallied up all the bold calls from the Friday slate, and we had a couple of close ones — though nobody necessarily hit it 100% on the nose.
From “Mpfanfave7” – Quintana will be the top pitcher tonight! Shuts out the Rangers 5 – 0. Pitches 8 innings, with 8k`s, no walks and 3 hits.
Quintana pitched seven shutout innings on Friday night and gave up just four hits. PLUS, the final score was exactly 5-0! That’s close enough for me, even though the strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t as glorious as Mpfanfave7 predicted. Well done, sir.
Honorable mention goes to bono6699 for predicting that the Arizona stack would outscore the LA and Colorado stacks in Coors. Arizona kept pace with the Dodgers, scoring seven runs on the night.
If we’re keeping tally here, Mpfanfave7 definitely gets the victory for Friday night. Want to try again? Leave your Monday bold call in the comments section! Now, let’s get to these Monday games.
Taking Advantage of Pricing

We don’t always get situations like this, but they are imperative to notice when they do occur. DraftKings has dynamic pricing based on matchups (FanDuel does not — at least not to the extent of DK), and when DK released the pricing for today’s slate, Chris Sale was listed as the probable starter for the White Sox. However, the White Sox have moved Sale back to Tuesday and will be calling up Miguel Gonzalez to make the start. Here are the prices for the Blue Jays’ regulars:
C – Russell Martin ($3,000)
1B/DH – Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200) / Justin Smoak ($2,700)
2B – Ryan Goins ($2,000)
3B – Josh Donaldson ($4,700)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki ($3,400)
OF – Jose Bautista ($4,500) / Kevin Pillar ($3,400) / Ezequiel Carrera ($2,400)
If you compare those prices to the Sunday prices on each player, you will notice that most of them are between $500 – $900 cheaper on Monday. That’s the Chris Sale factor. Miguel Gonzalez is no Chris Sale. In 26 major league starts for the Orioles last year, Gonzalez compiled a 4.91 ERA, a 4.51 SIERA, and allowed hard-hit contact almost 29% of the time. He also walked more than three batters per nine innings. The only word of caution is — if you believe in pitcher vs. team history — Gonzalez does sport a 6-2 career record with a 2.12 ERA against the Blue Jays.
Now, the question becomes, how do we attack this? Let’s start with cash games. I see no reason to avoid the Toronto bats at those prices, though I certainly don’t think you need to stack them in cash games. After all, there are 13 games tonight, and that includes a game at Coors Field. I would maybe pick two (or three at most) Toronto bats for my cash game teams. Carrera has been red hot in place of the injured Michael Saunders, and it will be hard to pass on him at $2,400 if he leads off again. My preferred route would maybe be to pir him with Bautista or Encarnacion to get one of the big boppers in there as well.
As for tournaments, I expect people to catch on to this pricing mishap. The game is being played in the most hitter-friendly park in the American League, and Toronto’s bats have come alive over the last two days. Expect a hefty dose of ownership on this team, especially because the Coors Field players have seen their prices inflated for this slate. If you want to stack the Jays, you can fit in a couple of elite arms. It certainly makes sense, and I will likely do that on some teams. As I generally multi-enter DK GPP’s, I will certainly take a few chances at fading Toronto, as well. If I was a single-entry player, I would likely take my chances with the fade.
Coors Field (Again!)

Monday Morning Edit – I will not remove the analysis below, but Chad Bettis (a RHP) is starting for the Rockies now, not Jorge De La Rosa. You can safely remove Jordy Mercer from consideration against a RHP. John Jaso and Gregory Polanco get a boost with this news.
When I first discussed this last Friday, the circumstances were much different. DraftKings missed the mark and failed to price up the players going at Coors Field. That mistake has quickly been corrected, though pricing doesn’t matter if we see another 12-10 game like we saw on Sunday. We have two left-handers going today, with Jorge De La Rosa pitching for Colorado and Jeff Locke pitching for the Pirates.
Pittsburgh Bats

De La Rosa has been the Colorado pitcher that has historically had the most success at Coors Field (that’s not saying much), though he has scuffled to start this season. Pittsburgh also has plenty of right-handed thump. The worry for me is that Pittsburgh played a grueling 13-inning affair against the Diamondbacks on Sunday in a game that lasted almost six hours. We have seen road teams struggle in the first game at Coors Field in the past, and I think we might see that from the Pirates here. Their cheapest regular checks in at a hefty $4,200, with only $900 of salary difference between the cheapest and most expensive option. If you are targeting the Pirates, you have to look at the expensive hitters given that minimal split. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte are fine outfield options, while Jordy Mercer gets a bump against a LHP — especially if he is hitting in a prime lineup spot. Again, I do worry about the lengthy Sunday game, and this is a prime GPP fade spot for me this evening.
Colorado Bats

The Rockies are facing their third left-hander in the last four games (Scott Kazmir, Alex Wood, and now Jeff Locke). As I discussed on Friday, Nolan Arenado has whopping career stats at home against left-handed pitching, and wouldn’t you know that he took Kazmir deep in that Friday game. His career wOBA against LHP at Coors Field now sits at an absurd .469. He’s cheaper than both McCutchen and Marte, and he would be the first player I would look to take in this game. Jeff Locke has massive control problems and has been horrendous to start the 2016 campaign with 13 walks and just seven strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. That is not a recipe for success at Coors Field. I definitely prefer the Colorado side in this game, with no travel involved and a wild lefty opposing them. Their lineups are somewhat of a wild card against LHP, so keep an eye out for any changes today. Ryan Raburn is $4,000 against a LHP, and that seems like a cheap price given the bump to everyone else.
Pitchers – Green Light

Madison Bumgarner ($12,000) vs. Padres (All formats) – Bumgarner obviously has elite stuff. We all know this. He also tends to go on stretches where he scuffles a bit, followed by stretches where he absolutely dominates. He had his best stuff so far this year in his last start, though he was saddled with a tough-luck loss. I toyed with putting him in the “yellow” column because of San Diego’s prowess against left-handed pitching, but I decided that would be foolish. Bumgarner is on another level from the lefties San Diego has had success against so far this season, and Bumgarner has racked up 10.72 strikeouts per nine innings against this Padres club over the past three seasons (77 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings, if you want to check my math).
Noah Syndergaard ($11,400) vs. Reds (All formats) – If you do worry about the splits of the Padres, a pivot from Bumgarner to Syndergaard is completely logical. In last Monday’s column, I mentioned several gushing things about Syndergaard’s pitches and his ability to generate swings and misses. The guy throws an off-speed pitch that sometimes touches 98 MPH! His fastball can top out in the 102-104 range. It’s disgusting. He has hit at least 29.6 DraftKings points in every start so far this year, and it would not surprise me one bit if he finishes the year as a top five fantasy pitcher. The ballpark is favorable, the Reds offense is beatable, and Syndergaard is quite possibly the best option on the slate tonight.
Danny Salazar ($10,700) at Twins (GPP) – Mr. Salazar is often frustrating for the daily fantasy player. His upside is immense, but the command sometimes escapes him. He is also a high-strikeout guy, and this can lead to him racking up 100 pitches in five innings far too often. Just look at his lines through three starts this year, as they are a perfect example: 11.29 K/9, 4.42 BB/9, 15.8% swinging strike rate. He has electric stuff, though his xFIP and SIERA in the mid-3.00’s suggest that his ERA south of 2.00 has been somewhat of good fortune. The good news is that the Twins played a sixteen inning game on Sunday, one where they blew a lead with two outs and nobody on in the 15th inning. They then had to travel home from Washington, D.C. These are spots where I absolutely love to target pitchers, and let’s not forget that Tanner Roark of all people struck out 15 Minnesota batters on Saturday. Stephen Strasburg also racked up 10 on Sunday. Salazar is an elite GPP option in this spot, but the price tag is way too high for me to consider him in cash games.
Ian Kennedy ($8,800) at Angels (All formats) – Ian Kennedy takes more heat than he should for his two years in San Diego. He wasn’t nearly as bad as many people would make him out to be, as he posted slightly better than league average numbers across the board. The defense in Kansas City will help him tremendously, as will a date with the Angels’ lousy offense. Their team wOBA against RHP this year is a meager .244, good for dead last in the league. As long as Kennedy doesn’t let Mike Trout beat him, he will be fine. He has consistently averaged more than 9.00 K/9 (a strikeout per inning) over the last three seasons, and he is a safe option in this favorable matchup.
Jordan Zimmermann ($8,200) vs. A’s (Cash) – On the ESPN broadcast during his last start, one of the analysts brought up a great point about Zimmermann. It was to the effect of him being built to be an American League pitcher. He doesn’t have to worry about getting pinch hit for when the spot comes about, and he is fully capable of pitching seven innings with regularity. He has yet to allow an earned run this season, though his SIERA is 4.09. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as Kennedy, but he does have a decent matchup against an Oakland offense that I believe has been playing over their heads to start the year. Kennedy is my preferred play of the two, but I don’t mind the zig to Zimmermann if you need to save the $600 in salary — especially since he is pitching at home.
Drew Pomeranz ($6,600) at Giants (GPP) – Pomeranz has always been an intriguing talent, and this could be the year where he puts everything together. He will get the benefit of pitching half of his games at the haven that is Petco Park, and the park in San Francisco is just fine for pitchers, too. On a site like DK where the win isn’t as important, his matchup against Bumgarner is less of a concern. The bigger concern is a date with the Giants offense, as they have plenty of pesky bats against LHP. That said, Pomeranz is coming into his own. His swinging strike rate was 8.4% in 2014, 11.0% in 2015, and now it is 17.4% in 2016. I love the GPP upside here, as most people will likely avoid him with a date against Bumgarner and the San Francisco offense.
Ross Stripling ($5,600) vs. Marlins (Cash) – If you are at this price range, you are not looking for a complete game shutout. You are simply looking for a serviceable, 20-or-so fantasy point performance that allows you to get some big bats. That’s exactly what you might get with Stripling. He has transitioned well to the big leagues and currently sits as a -145 favorite in this home matchup with the Marlins. He owns an encouraging 53.3% ground ball rate this year, and that will allow him to limit the “blow-up” damage when he doesn’t have his best stuff. As long as he can keep Giancarlo Stanton from going off, there’s no reason to be scared of Stripling at a very cheap $5,600 price point. There is a big difference between him at this price as a home favorite compared to the other guys in this price range, which consist of guys pitching at Coors Field.
Pitchers – Yellow Light

Chris Archer ($10,300) vs. Orioles – Was Chris Archer a one-year wonder? Fresh off his lights-out 2015 campaign, Archer has hit the skids so far this season. He has lost all four of his starts and has not pitched past the fifth inning in any of them. The one positive you can maybe take away from it is that he has faced some tough offenses – Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Boston – in those four starts. The problem? He gave up six runs and four home runs against Baltimore, and that’s who he has to face tonight. If he was priced in the $8,000-$9,000 range, it would be worth delving further. The $10,300 price tag makes it a really tough sell. I’d rather see him get back on track before taking the plunge. The upside is obviously there, though, as his strikeout rate is a healthy 29.6% and his SIERA is almost FOUR FULL RUNS lower than his ERA. That suggests massive improvement, but this isn’t necessarily the matchup for that to start.
Raisel Iglesias ($9,200) at Mets – Iglesias has a live arm and electric stuff, and he is easily the best pitching option the Reds have. He is starting to harness his command, walking less than two batters per nine innings so far this year. He also has solid strikeout upside with the potential to post a swinging strike rate in the double digits. The Reds/Mets game tonight has a total of just 6 1/2 runs, though that is largely in part to Syndergaard pitching on the other side. The win chances are low, but that’s not a major detractor on DraftKings. I like Iglesias as a low-owned pivot tonight, especially in GPP formats.
Taijuan Walker ($9,000) vs. Astros – Remember Walker’s first full season as a starter for the Mariners? It was just last year, and everyone was drooling over the chance to take him in DFS. He was a massive disappointment for the first month of the season, though he clawed his way back to league average respectability by the time the year ended. He is off to a better start in 2016, and it is mainly due to his improved command. He is pitching to contact more often, which has helped his walks but hindered his strikeouts. All told, the impact is likely a positive, because he pitches in a park that suppresses offense and he is able to pitch deeper into games. That said, I don’t think I want to take a chance against a Houston offense that has power bats up and down the lineup. This is the type of team that can give Walker problems, and I will likely leave him on the sidelines at an elevated $9,000 price tag.
Marcus Stroman ($8,700) vs. White Sox – In my opinion, Stroman is generally over-hyped by the public. He doesn’t profile as a guy that is going to be an elite strikeout arm at the major league level, even though his minor league numbers would indicate the opposite. In eight major league starts, he is striking out around 5.5 batters per nine innings. He does generate a lot of ground balls (63% ground ball rate so far in the big leagues), and he generally won’t get blown up. The White Sox also present a favorable matchup, as they rank 28th in the league with a .282 wOBA against RHP so far this season. Stroman is a decent cash game option here, but I think he will be over-owned and I am not in love with the price tag. That’s why he gets the yellow designation.
Rick Porcello ($8,100) at Braves – The Atlanta Braves have hit three home runs this season, as a team. Three. We’re almost to May. Oh, and by the way, two of those three home runs were on Opening Day. That’s right: the Braves have hit one total home run in their last 17 games. The offense is abysmal. Rick Porcello has been somewhat of a bad luck victim so far this year, as his strikeout and walk ratios (11.17 K/9; 1.40 BB/9) are both elite, yet he has a 4.66 ERA despite a 2.89 xFIP and 2.54 SIERA. His overall numbers should improve, and the Braves certainly are a matchup where he can improve those numbers. I won’t argue with you if you want to take him tonight, and he almost got the bump to the “green” category. I do think he will be a bit over-owned and will likely pivot to other options simply because of the game theory angle in GPP’s, so I am leaving him here.
Nathan Eovaldi ($6,200) at Rangers – Like Porcello, the hard-throwing Eovaldi has been somewhat of a tough luck victim so far this season with his 6.11 ERA through three starts. He has similar ratios to Porcello across the board, with 11.21 K/9 and 1.54 BB/9. He also has a 2.84 xFIP and 2.73 SIERA. All four of those ratios are very similar to what I just wrote for Porcello. However, Eovaldi checks in at $1,900 cheaper than the Red Sox starter. He also draws a tougher matchup in a hitter-friendly park against a better offense in the Rangers. I wouldn’t touch Eovaldi for cash games, as his career numbers have not shown enough to indicate that this high strikeout rate is sustainable. However, he is a very intriguing SP #2 option for GPP contests this evening.
Pitchers I Don’t Like But Really Don’t Want to Take Bats Against, Either

Should that whole thing be capitalized? It’s a very wordy header. Oh well. I am keeping it.
Zack Greinke ($9,700) vs. Cardinals – Even as a Cardinals fan, I must say I did not see the 2016 offensive outburst coming. Regression will likely set in at some point, but the Redbirds currently sport a league-leading .374 wOBA against RHP in 2016. Combine that with Greinke’s early season struggles and still-elevated price tag, and you have an easy pass. Greinke’s numbers will dip this year thanks to the shift to a hitter-friendly environment in Arizona. Even though Greinke is an easy pass, I am not sure I want to pick on him with St. Louis bats, either. The game does have a low projected total, and I do expect the St. Louis offense to slump at some point. I’ll likely just fade this whole spot entirely.
Garrett Richards ($8,500) vs. Royals – This is just the classic “MEH” spot to me. Richards is a talented pitcher, so I don’t really want to take any hitters against him. I also don’t want to take Richards against a Kansas City team that is always difficult to strike out. On a thirteen game slate with 26 teams in action, you can easily scratch off one matchup, and this would definitely be one of them in my book.
Doug Fister ($5,800) at Mariners – I never roster Doug Fister anymore, as his strikeout rate has been on the decline for several years now. He is also getting fewer ground balls, which means he is allowing a lot more fly balls. That’s a bad combination. However, I don’t necessarily want to stack against him, either. The Mariners are a hit-or-miss offense, and Safeco Field generally suppresses run totals. Tonight’s game does have a projected total of eight runs, so I can see taking some Seattle bats in this spot. Left-handers have a .499 wOBA against Fister so far this year (small sample size alert, though), so this could be a nice night to take a guy like Robinson Cano or Kyle Seager if you’re spending or Seth Smith) and Nori Aoki if you are looking to save a little cap space.
Pitchers – Red Light (Hello, Bats!)

Chad Bettis and Jeff Locke – Coors Field, obviously.
Julio Teheran ($7,200) vs. Red Sox – This is a great spot to talk about pitcher splits. Some pitchers simply can’t get guys out that hit from a certain side of the plate. Julio Teheran is one of those guys.
2015 – LHB’s = .386 wOBA against Teheran
2015 – RHB’s = .257 wOBA against Teheran
2016 – LHB’s = .413 wOBA against Teheran
2016 – RHB’s = .248 wOBA against Teheran
I have literally never seen splits that are that striking. The secret is out, too, as teams always load up as many lefties as they can against the Braves’ starter. Travis Shaw, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley, and Brock Holt all hit from the left side, and all are in play in this matchup. Ortiz is one of my favorite high-dollar bats of the day, and this makes a nice four-man GPP stack as well.
Tommy Milone ($6,200) vs. Indians – I have never been a fan of Tommy Milone, but his advanced metrics do indicate improvement. He has allowed an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this year, and that is bound to correct itself at some point. Still, he has always allowed a bit too much hard-hit contact for my liking, and the Indians have a pesky good offense (with new leadoff man Carlos Santana?) that obliterated Anibal Sanchez and Shane Greene over the weekend. I want no part of Milone in this matchup.
Cesar Ramos (Not available) vs. Yankees – Ramos is a journeyman pitcher that has bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors for the better part of a decade now. He put up serviceable numbers as a bullpen arm for the Rays and Angels over the past few years, but the Rangers stretched him out to be a starter this year. He also gets a downgrade in park as a pitcher in Texas compared to his previous two stops. This is a bit of a wild card, as he gets to face a Yankees offense that is worse against LHP. That said, I like New York’s prospects to score runs here in a hitter-friendly environment. Their bats are a sneaky stack, but keep an eye on the lineup. A-Rod left yesterday’s game early and you never know who the Yankees will start against a southpaw.
Kendall Graveman ($5,900) at Tigers – Call this a gut feel pick, but this could be the night where Detroit’s bats finally get going. Graveman is a league average arm, though he is a ground ball pitcher. He doesn’t overpower many hitters and the depth of Detroit’s lineup should give him problems. Nothing stands out as “awful” in his advanced stats, but as I said, I just feel like this is a “get right” game for Detroit. Sometimes, you just have to play those gut calls. If you think I am crazy, fire up Graveman at $5,900. I just can’t justify it when you have a similar pitcher in Ross Stripling that is $300 cheaper and pitching as a home favorite.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (fantasy alias STLCardinals84) is a leading RG contributor for NFL, NBA, MLB, CFB and golf. One of the game’s best, he is currently in the Top 10 in the 2015/16 Tournament Player of the Year race and has six live final appearances to his name, as well as a second place finish in the 2015 FantasyAces College Football Championship..