------- Tuesday, January 2, 2018 -------
04:48 thb: Happy and prosperous New Year to you Titans of the Mind numbing thought.
04:48 thb: I erad that physical traders were making a comeback as computers are not cutting it.
05:00 stevie_s: hny
05:20 Mobius: thb - Where'd you read that - Mother Earth News of Field and Stream?
05:25 thb: Mobius, some trusted reading sources,...unfortunately I don't recall. Now prevalence of Algos is overwhelming, but that said, the article mentioned performance by top traders was a comeback.....ya can't get rid of the computers now that they are in every brokerage house?
05:28 Paris: thb - hello there, nice to see you here. I was in St Malo over the holidays. Back to work now. Best of luck in 2018
05:29 thb: Paris welcome back to sanity. I haven't left Liguria for holiday and that's fine for me, easier instead of hustle and bustle, travel, crowds, etc. Thanks for your contribution and healthy prosperous New Year.
05:31 thb: Iparis, hope it was warm, but we have had "Climate Change," for the winter,...hehe.
05:32 Paris: thb - in a word - supportable
05:33 bigworm: Happy new year!!!!
05:33 bigworm: did you drink whiskey over the weekend Mobius?
05:33 thb: Bravo,....at least a dramatic area,....foie gras, wine, maybe? Maybe not but you were here,.....welcome here.
05:34 bigworm: I bet youre a makers mark kind of guy right
05:35 neo_theone: yes global warming in full swing. lol
05:40 Nube: Bigworm, you're making me thirsty.
05:42 bigworm: haha
05:42 bigworm: I always liked jack daniels
05:43 bigworm: Im trying not to drink as much though
05:46 Nube: Dat Janiels!
05:46 bigworm: haha
05:46 bigworm: what did you do over the weekend nube
05:46 bigworm: where in the country are you
05:47 Nube: Minnesota. Mostly chores.
05:48 bigworm: yeah i just read a bit and then drank a bit
05:48 bigworm: read up on VAR models, transfer functions, and ECM models.  Super exciting!
05:51 Nube: VAR was always something a person would use to fool themselves into thinking they are taking less risk than they really are, but it never caught on with the trading public.
05:51 Nube: Always something *I thought a person
05:51 bigworm: are you talking about value at risk models?
05:51 Nube: Yeah.
05:52 bigworm: oh i am talking about Vector Auto regression models
05:52 bigworm: VaR I think is value at risk
05:52 bigworm: im going to use it in my next strategy
05:53 luby: HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of you and wishing a new beginning wih good health and spiritis.
05:53 bigworm: I think its the best for forecasting
05:55 Nube: Ah, a different VAR
05:56 bigworm: The next project I am goign to take on after im done with pairs is going to tear apart the leading economic index
05:56 bigworm: just really see what is relevant and if they are even significant anymore
05:57 bigworm: try to find more variables using VAR to forecast
05:58 luby: Does any one has a script to find the previous bar which has lowest high on the daily chart and previous bar with highest low on daily chart? thanks in advance.
06:00 Nube: Big, Conference Board one?
06:00 bigworm: yeah
06:00 bigworm: I did a study on it in my undergrad and I didnt have the statistical toolbox that I had now
06:00 bigworm: have
06:01 bigworm: basically I found that the LEI had false positives in recession prediction and didnt catch every recession.  Most likely due to the types of indicatros they used.
06:02 bigworm: I mean they are good, but not always relevant as economy innovates
06:02 bigworm: and moves from different types of sectors like manufacturing
06:07 Nube: That index does change from time to time. If I recall correctly they made some changes to it after the last recession.
06:08 Mobius: big.. Don't get too wrapped up in the numbers of economics and lose sight of the reality of physics. There are only two types of economies - Producing and Consuming. Those that produce eventualy outperfom those that consume since those that consume must pay those that produce. Second Law of Thermodynamics. In a closed system all things degrade unless acted on by an outside force.
06:09 bigworm: which would you conisder us?  We seem to have a large amount of producing and consuming
06:10 Nube: Net consumers
06:10 Anonymous so far: We produce services...no.more major production of actual things
06:11 Mobius: The best predictive models are not those that rely on static past data but those that use past data to learn what will most likely occur with typical change. Neual Nets and Genetic Algorithms.
06:12 Mobius: Neural too
06:13 bigworm: I was reading up on how engle and granger developed their critical values for their test so that I can create a monte carlo simulation for my own test.  Am I using simulated data as well for what you were talking about in deleting certain stocks from my list?
06:13 Mobius: US is net consumer market. And will have to revert to net producer or go the way of every other power that lost it ability to either conquer or produce.
06:13 bigworm: I think youre a physics prof Mobius lol
06:14 bigworm: you mean net to the world or just confined to US?
06:14 Mobius: We are now a Global Market and there's no way to reverse that. Although Trump would like to be an isolationist
06:15 Heikin Guy: We have a global trade deficit and services net surplus if you look at GDP.
06:17 Heikin Guy: sorry meant balance of trade
06:18 bigworm: would I simulate stock data to the parametrs I want for monte carlo and reject the ones that arent within the confidence?
06:19 Mobius: Better for us little retail traders to find a way to ride the waves of the big traders than to try and compete with them in data mining. Big data is just to expensive to cultivate.
06:19 bigworm: well wouldnt data mining tell us the way they may be trading?
06:19 bigworm: hmm what about forecasting the big companies movements instead
06:20 Mobius: no not really. We can easily find their wake with much more traditional tools
06:20 bigworm: ok well I wont ask too much on that right now because I can only spread myself so thin on what I am focusing on
06:21 bigworm: I read alot this weekend but I can only retain what I learn if i do projects with these different models and functions.
06:22 Mobius: You develop your list of attractive companies and what their reasonable valuation is to you.. Then wait to the time to enter. There's always going to be a next good time to enter. That's the nature of the beast. It's forcing the "right" time that's costly in engineering
06:24 bigworm: Mobius, could you explain just a bit on trhe process of the monte carlo test for pairs?  I think I am using simulated data and just creating my own distribution from repetition and rejecting a stock that is outside of that.
06:25 Mobius: big.. Thats a pretty tall order for a chat window.
06:26 bigworm: haha ok
06:26 bigworm: you had said using volatility to delete offenders
06:26 bigworm: are we talking volatility of the profit line?
06:28 bigworm: I wish I had gottem more done over winter break but unfortunatly I had setbacks when I wanted to add ECM into my model.
06:28 Mobius: If you take Monte Carlo Simulation down to a binary outcome 1 for trending the desired direction and 0 for NOT then your be able to make good use of it in pairs
06:28 bigworm: had to read up and brush up on everything that gets one to that part of understanding of that type of econometrics
06:29 bigworm: right so im trying to develop a discrete distribution
06:30 bigworm: like a binomial distribution
06:30 Mobius: It always goes back to a Normalized Distribution yes.
06:35 bigworm: because of central limit theorem
06:36 bigworm: so would we say 1 is a trending profit line and 0 is not?
06:53 bigworm: Have you found a lot of pairs in the retail sector? alof of pairs I have found are from this sector
06:57 AlphaInvestor: Big - that is because all the retailers suck together right now
06:57 bigworm: haha
06:58 bigworm: i dont care if they suck... just as long as I can short and go long on a pair.
06:59 Mobius: big the only sector I stay away from in pairs is technology I've found good pairs in all other sectors with great pairs in retail, oil, manufacturing and banking
07:01 bigworm: did you make a program that scans for pairs or do you just do everything searching a program?
07:02 Mobius: When I started years ago I used  program to find pair candidates then perfected that list using algorithms for backtesting. Now I just review the list by performance
07:03 bigworm: so when you scan for pairs once a year, you already have a list that you just pull from?
07:03 harndog: FYI - I had a missing position and a unauthorized position in an account this morning
07:03 harndog: check your positions for errors..
07:03 bigworm: I feel like the program I have is good at finding pairs, just need to feed it a good list with every sector seperated
07:04 Nube: Yowsers, harn!
07:04 Mobius: I don't need to scan any more. I have my list. I just keep track of performance and if a pair stops performing I dig in to find out why
07:05 bigworm: Nice hopefully it will be easy to maintain once I sift out the bad ones
07:05 AlphaInvestor: Somebody had the wisdom to Put me SWKS*^ on Friday - bet they are kiicking themselves this morning
07:07 bigworm: my amazon and target positions are doing really well
07:23 marshall2020: Does anyone have pre-written script to find the difference between study values? I would greatly appreciate any help you can provide.
07:26 fgsdh: Good question
07:30 harndog: Double Drive Bye... with a vending request - Happy New Year
07:34 Mobius: marshall.. This would be the difference between two study values

plot MACD_Diff = MACD()."Value" - MACD()."Avg";
07:35 AlphaInvestor: Mobius - that is what I was thinking - as long as they are built-ins - just Reference the studies - they don't even need to be the same study
07:45 Nube: Alpha, Vix Yield: a) do you have any favorite ways for measuring skew? Was thinking of looking at some sort of kurtosis measurement as an accompaniment.
07:49 JC_: Mobius can you give us an example of one of your pairs?
07:51 AlphaInvestor: Nube - I like the 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution, with its Shape, Location, and Scale parameters ... but probably overkill for most things
07:52 Nube: VixFix of ViXma perhaps like a vol of vol.
07:52 AlphaInvestor: Kurtosis is a measure of "peakedness" not skew
07:55 Nube: I do realize they're not the same, just looking for a distribution measurement of some sort.
07:59 AlphaInvestor: Nube - Mobius has a script with Heinz 57 ways to calculate skew
08:10 bigworm: if youre going to look at a pair to develop something JC_, XEL / CMS is a good one to reference off of.
08:10 marshall2020: Mobius: I am not very good at using the TOSscript. I am trying to find increasing difference between DI+ and DI- for 1 day back and 2 days back. I have tried to copy and past your code suggestion but am unable to complete it so it works. Additional assistance (like the script to do that) would be very helpful. Thanks.
08:10 bigworm: mmm henize
08:14 binny: MY moving avg crossover sms alerts dont work. can anyone help?
08:17 AlphaInvestor: Marshall - here is an example that uses DI+/DI-
plot DIdiff = DMI()."DI+" -  DMI()."DI-";
08:19 Nube: I should have checked there first. Of course Mobius does.
08:20 AlphaInvestor: If you don't find it on myTrade ... I gots a copy
08:27 marshall2020: Hi Alphainvestor: I used your script in my scan and reduced the number of stocks but I am not sure what the script yields and I want to show that the difference between the DI+ and the DI- is 2 days after the cross over and it was 1 day after the cross over. In other words the DI+ is getting larger while the DI- is getting small. Thanks for your additional help.
08:28 JC_: Thx bigworm
08:29 Nube: Crossover which direction, marshall?
08:29 marshall2020: DI+ cross over DI-.
08:29 AlphaInvestor: Marshall - All I posted was the DI difference - because I didn't have those other details
08:30 AlphaInvestor: your post at hh:27 was the first to mention crossover
08:30 marshall2020: Understood.
08:31 marshall2020: Sorry for lack of details.
08:32 Nube: Marshall, if you plot the snippet AI posted, you'll see the difference between the two plots so you'll see the crossover and the subsequent values
08:32 AlphaInvestor: do you really find value trading using DI+ / DI- ?   I have never been able to glean anything useful from them except ADX
08:35 marshall2020: Nube: I simple do not know how to do that. Although I am an experienced trader, I am new to TOSscript. So, I am not sure how to do that plot and where to look for it to evaluate.
08:35 harndog: Marshall What are you trying to do? "I want....
08:36 marshall2020: I find the DI+ XO the DI- to be a very valuable indicator of change in trend and increase in price...given lots of other considerations.
08:38 harndog: Yes, Wells Wilder created a lot of good indicators... what are you trying to do? I want idenifty turns?
08:38 marshall2020: I want to screen for stocks that have an increasing difference between DI+ and DI- on days 1,2,etc. after the DI+ crosses above / over (XO) the DI-.
08:38 marshall2020: Hope this makes what I want to do clear.
08:39 harndog: No... Indicator cross with oscilator value expansion
08:40 harndog: MACD[2} > MACD
08:40 willie5: Does anyone have an indicator for PPO with Histogram
08:40 harndog: MACD > MACD[2}
08:41 harndog: MACD today > MACD value 2 days ago
08:41 harndog: Willie - MYTrade/ Mobius/ Look through his scripts for PPO
08:42 marshall2020: harndog: very succinctly put. I will copy and paste into a study and see what I get. Thanks.
08:42 willie5: Thanks
08:42 harndog: I went through and commented about the script title if missing...
08:50 richard9354: Hope it's OK to askt his here. I don't want to be rude by posting if not appropriate. I did the "show patterns" for Candlesticks on my charts, but darned if I can figure out how to make anything but an arrow appear below or above them. True I recognize the patterns on  most, but it  would be nice if the name would appear on a hover somehow.  The list above is so long that the "yes" is lost next to the name. Does anyone have a solution? Or am I missing something? Thanks in advance if anyone replies.
08:53 fox_technicals: richard - What would you rather have instead of an arrow?
08:53 marshall2020: harndog: I tried DIPlus [1] > DIPlus [2] but it was not accepted. Your comment would greatly help.
09:02 FrankB3: Anyone need a Mr. Scripts fix::: on Trader_TV
09:15 Mobius: marshall... Use the Scan Wizard
Select Add Study Filter
Click the pencil next to "D" on the right side
Delete Study
Add Condition
Add Study
Scroll to DIPlus and add
Center Column click Greater Than
Right Side Click Add Study
Scroll to DIPlus and click
Ofset 1
Set Aggregation Period
Select Scan In list
Select Intersect with List
Scan
09:27 beergas: Happy UnNew Year you guys   sort of nice to be back!?
09:28 Nube: It's great to be back.
09:28 Nube: I just flew into town.
09:28 Nube: And boy are my arms tired
09:31 nextrade: Henny Youngman lives on  :)
09:38 marshall2020: Mobius: Thanks, I will try this.
09:40 Shizznet: Missing buffer from open to 6:15AM PST. I'd greatly appreciate a pb or something similar.
09:43 bigworm: mobius, I dont think ECM is good for pairs trading.
09:44 bigworm: backtest doesn t look good.  weight against SPX seems to be better results
09:47 MTS1: Zhizz; /fZrG4gU3 Central Time
09:47 MTS1: *Shizznet
09:47 neofryboy: I'm currently on the 3 min and want to  count highs and lows on the 1 min and dump it into a label.  It seems TOS doesn't like it when I go down in Aggregation from the current timeframe.  Is there a way to do that?
09:48 Mobius: no
09:49 neofryboy: :(
09:49 publiclytraded: Question: How can I adjust my grid so that I have one on the top and two on the bottom?
09:50 harndog: Have you done a free platform tour?
09:50 publiclytraded: No
09:50 harndog: Great - Live support - Ask for platform tour
09:50 publiclytraded: OK. Will do. Thanks.
09:51 bigworm: yea ECM weight is super volatile.
09:51 harndog: A Google search answer the question in 10 seconds
09:52 bigworm: maybe because ECM is more for economic measurments
09:52 bigworm: shocks to the pair really probably arent consistent enough for that but the movement to the SPX is
09:55 bigworm: I wasted a whole week!
09:59 AlphaInvestor: did you learn anything?
10:00 bigworm: Yeah I did.  Not complete waste I guess.
10:01 AlphaInvestor: ^^
10:16 Nube: Progress is a set of stairs with a very short rise and very deep step
10:17 Nube: Sometimes the next riser is over the horizon, but it's there somewhere
10:19 Shizznet: Thanks, MTS1.
10:21 richard9354: fox_technicals: A pop up label from the arrow.
10:23 AlphaInvestor: That cannot be done in thinkscript, you could change it to a Bubble tho
10:32 bigworm: youre right !!!
10:56 rx75: i am having trouble with the mobile trader;  it does not load my previous charts and all i get is a straight line
10:56 rx75: anyuone know how i can fix this?
10:57 Mobius: reboot
10:58 rx75: how to reboot?
10:59 Nube: Not sure if serious
11:00 Mobius: Yes I'm serious. Mobile devices often have multiple programs eating their limited memory and with open objects eating the heap the best first option is to reboot them
11:01 Nube: I meant the how to reboot question
11:01 Mobius: ah.. Well that's what I get for jumping to conclusions
11:02 AlphaInvestor: My recommendation for questions like that - ask your grandkids
11:03 Mobius: Pick the device up carefull swing it around your head counter clockwise screaming like a rooster. If that doesn't work I'm lost.
11:05 Nube: In all seriousness, I'm sort of hoping for a something to better manage memory in mobile devices. I'm not a coder so I don't really understand heap management, but that seems like an easy place for everything to go wrong on those devices.
11:06 Shizznet: Nube not a coder. lol
11:08 AlphaInvestor: Nube - Android or iPhone?
11:09 Nube: Both, actually. Android I would suspect more so than ios.
11:09 JF638NYC: Anyone see teum
11:10 AlphaInvestor: Nube - Clean Master for Android memory cleaner, cache cleaner ...
11:10 Nube: JF, I'll sell ya some long calls in that penny stock.
11:10 Nube: Thanks, Alpha
11:11 AlphaInvestor: JF638 - please move that conversation to the Penny Stock Pumper's Lounge
11:32 JellySkater: What is the way to calculate an average of bid price? Tried average(bid,10).
11:33 Shizznet: If you can tell me how that makes you a better trader, I'll lead you to the door...
11:35 Mobius: jelly.. bid is not a fundmental data field but part of the close data

close(PriceType = "BID")
11:36 AlphaInvestor: Only works on intraday charts I believe
11:36 Mobius: yep
11:40 JellySkater: how about using in a custom scan?
11:40 Mobius: isn't in scan
11:42 JellySkater: How about by reference to a study that does the calculation?
11:43 Mobius: are you using data from a chart to scan or data found in the scanner's data base
11:44 JellySkater: I'm in Stock Hacker. How does one distinguish chart or scaner's database?
11:44 Mobius: you don't. The scanner uses it's own data with it's own limitations.
11:45 JellySkater: So it works in a chart but not the scanner?
11:45 Mobius: yes
11:46 JellySkater: Is there any reference doc on scanner limits?
11:46 Mobius: have you read the manual
11:47 trader990: Happy new year everybody ,quick question, can i calculate the arithemtic mean of Open and Close of the candle , meaning i want to be able to plot on the candle the midpoint between the open and close ,any help would be appreciated thanks a lot
11:47 Lily: Hi all, a stupid quesiton. how can I get alert when a watchlist(scan) results chage? Thanks!
11:48 JellySkater: A few times, the online at tlc.thinkorswim.com.
11:49 Mobius: trader... the mean you want is

def mean = (open + close) / 2;
11:49 rx75: is live support working today?
11:49 Mobius: Lily see Dynamic Watchlist Alert in the manual
11:50 Lily: Thank you, Mobius!
11:52 trader990: Thanks a lot Mobius , appreicate it man
11:52 Mobius: Jelly.. then you have access to all there is to know about TOS supported functions and limitations.
11:52 Mobius: yw
11:53 AlphaInvestor: Well, all except for a few super double secret functions
11:54 Mobius: We've had a 50% variance in AD today with near 0 variance in price. What the hell over!
11:56 Nube: I would guess that means it was a good day to hold supercap stocks.
11:57 Mobius: /YM is underperforming /ES and /NQ by a bunch.
11:59 Nube: Time for that FANG index future
12:00 Mobius: I'm looking for /ES to head back to 2684 and short it at 2692 on a runner.  And not willing to wait around too much longer.
12:11 Mobius: Well that's that. Guess the market showed me.
12:12 Nube: Might have just been looking for it a minute too soon
12:14 Mobius: I've been short since about 9:30 this morning. Took profit on 2 contracts at 10:30 thinking I'd let one run. Thought it'd go ahead and break to a new low with AD dropping in half.
12:16 Mobius: Guess we're too close to 2700. The big round number is just too strong a pull
12:18 Nube: Round numbers do seem like magic sometimes.
12:19 Nube: Even if they are like any other price level, people pay attention to them.
12:19 harndog: AI - guess - no Mr. Script today - meeetings
12:20 Nube: NQ did away with a week of pullback today. Someone wanted some stocks today
12:20 AlphaInvestor: harn  +1
12:22 harndog: Does "I have a quick question, that I did not ask a search engine...." move me to +2?
12:23 bigworm: does anyone like AMD around this level?
12:23 AlphaInvestor: no, but asking us to vend you a script moves you to -50
12:24 harndog: lol
12:25 AlphaInvestor: big - my calculated Intrinsic Values for AMD is 1.14 and 3.63 for thisYR and nextYR earnings ... so no
12:25 bigworm: im looking to add a semi
12:25 bigworm: was looking at MU also...
12:29 AlphaInvestor: MU*^ is better, but do you really want to buy after a 5.5% move today?
12:29 bigworm: no
12:29 bigworm: just researching
12:29 bigworm: on the pullback
12:29 bigworm: I might get into some GLD as well
12:34 Mobius: look at those companies that profit from multiple sectors that are coming back in favor. Like chemical compaines that support oil and gold mining such as MON and CC
12:35 Mobius: cc
12:43 bigworm: im pretty heavy into finance and energy
12:45 Nube: Ew GLD. Never been a pure play person
12:46 Nube: More attracted to BBL or VALE etc than then metals themselves
12:46 bigworm: it would just be to hedge a bit
12:47 bigworm: if inflation ticks up, which it will, im sure GLD would do alright
12:47 bigworm: just not sure when inflation would be at the point when people buy into metals
12:48 bigworm: alot of hype, but we still arent that awsome in the econ numbers yet
12:48 AlphaInvestor: Gold is not a good inflation hedge, sorry to deflate your buble
12:49 bigworm: people dont buy gold when inflation goes up
12:49 bigworm: not just up but up to a point past fed targets
12:50 AlphaInvestor: do a correlation between inflation and GLD
12:51 bigworm: I dont think you could strictly do that, I mean more when inflation is hitting higher than the fed target.  Not neccesarily just when inflation rises.
12:52 bigworm: so i would have to model it with something other than inflation.  Maybe subset when it was greater than inflation target or near it
12:52 AlphaInvestor: oh, so you mean gold isn't a good inflation hedge ... gotcha
12:53 bigworm: only when inflation is a worry
12:54 Nube: Worm, trouble is, even if that's true, you still don't have a way to know when inflation is a worry enough for investors to drive price up.
12:54 bigworm: sure you do
12:55 bigworm: you could estimate it
12:55 bigworm: wages are a main driver to inflation
12:55 AlphaInvestor: So, your statement posted at 15:47 ET is not true
"15:47 bigworm: if inflation ticks up, which it will, im sure GLD would do alright"
12:56 bigworm: well that wasnt my full thought
12:56 bigworm: I was thinking about when inflation becomes a worry, near or past fed target rate.
12:57 Mobius: I think you should look at /GC again. It's been "doing alright" for 3 weeks now and no end to "alright" it sight
12:58 Mobius: in sight
12:58 AlphaInvestor: must be all the inflation from the past 3 weeks, eh   ;-)
12:59 bigworm: or expected
12:59 bigworm: why do you think its doing so well mobius
13:00 Mobius: because large traders are afraid
13:00 Shizznet: Pencils down.
13:00 steelerfan: will this work...If I wanted to see an indicator when it went from down to up i.e. created a V....can you do plot testvar = indicator[-2] > indicator[-1] and indicator[-1]<indicator[0] then (25) else Double.Nan;
13:01 bigworm: do you not think gold is a good trade for higher inflation mobius?
13:02 Mobius: i don't think gold is good for anything but hedging against fear of political unrest on a large scale
13:02 AlphaInvestor: Steeler - those candles are all in the future
13:04 steelerfan: ok then same but with positive numbers?  same concept though as i tried both and i can get data for each part but not joined with the and
13:04 Nube: Bigworm, wages are not a driver of inflation.
13:05 Mobius: Time to go. See you folks later
13:05 Nube: The 70's refute that theory pretty handily
13:05 Nube: Later, Mobius
13:07 steelerfan: also is thete still a thinkscript class on Tuesdays?
13:07 bigworm: bye mobius
13:09 AlphaInvestor: Steeler - yes, that will work if you use 2, 1, and 0 instead of the negative numbers
13:09 Shizznet: 2
13:10 beergas: Neil Young, Tom Petty Publisher Sues Spotify for $1.6B -- Market Talk
13:14 bigworm: some of books I have read maybe they arent that great then or talk of basic concepts.  Im reading on wage growth and inflation meow
13:14 bigworm: this looks like something easy to model real quick actually the data is on the FRED
13:14 steelerfan: if i do plot testvar1 =indicator[2]>indivator[1] iget data and the separately plot testvar2 = indiicayor[1]< indicator[0] i get data but nothing when i join them with an and statement
13:16 bigworm: im going to model it as well as inflation and gld!
13:16 Shizznet: Then indicator[2]>indicator[1] and indicator[1]<indicator[0] is not true ever at all on the current chart you're testing it out on, steelerfan.
13:17 Shizznet: Sounds like the logic is there. You just don't like it. Try a different symbol/ticker perhaps that matches the criteria?
13:17 steelerfan: i see data for each on the same bar when i keep it sepatate
13:19 stevie_s: .
13:20 Shizznet: Try posting a share link of the study.
13:21 bigworm: so I read a study that uses CPI and it says real wages but I think I will use PCE and real median household income
13:21 steelerfan: i will later...away from screen...on mobile...thanks
13:21 bigworm: do you think those are ok NUBE
13:21 steelerfan: ?
13:23 bigworm: this study says it used the ratio of compensation of employees to total non farm employees
13:23 AlphaInvestor: Big -real median household income is not wage inflation - people get added and subtracted from wage earners in the household - also household income includes more than just wages
13:25 AlphaInvestor: why not use something like
Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers
13:26 bigworm: compensation of employees recieved, wage and salary disbursments
13:26 bigworm: is what they used for this other study
13:26 bigworm: ill look up the index you mentioned
13:26 AlphaInvestor: its part of FRED
13:26 bigworm: yea it only goes back to 2001 though
13:29 Shizznet: When 17 years of info isn't enough...
13:29 bigworm: you guys are probably right but im going to do these things in a bit then ill show you the results later.  Good practice for me and it will help me understand things more.
13:30 AlphaInvestor: Probably right?
13:30 bigworm: I will also model when gold is less than and greater than inflation targets for fed.
13:30 bigworm: yea probably right... I like to see numbers
13:31 AlphaInvestor: a simple google search will confirm, but if you need the experience ... go for it
13:31 Nube: Big, if you're looking for a general inflation measure, I don't think it matters which one so much as you use the same one. As for wage inflation, that might be tricky.
13:31 bigworm: I really dont know anyones background in here and if someone says something and im proven wrong by me looking at the numbers then whats wrong with that
13:31 bigworm: well google says wages and inflation are possitivly correlated
13:31 bigworm: have been in the past
13:32 Nube: Well sure, so are prices and inflatiin
13:32 Nube: Inflation also
13:32 bigworm: yea I just want to model to see which one comes first using granger causality
13:32 Nube: Wages as a driver of inflation is what isn't true. Stagflation couldn't have happened if that was the case
13:33 bigworm: if I question anyone in here its not anything disrepectful, its just me confirming and not taking anyones word for anything.  Id rather see the numbers myself ya know
13:33 bigworm: and I believe youre probably right.  Im curious to see if they ever were though.
13:34 bigworm: why my textbooks say things like this
13:34 bigworm: sometimes what they teach you in your undergrad is bs
13:35 bigworm: just like an idea of how something should work but when you see real world numbers you find out not everything is perfect into what they say in class
13:35 bigworm: noty so much general inflation NUBE, mostly what the fed uses for their analysis
13:38 Nube: Big, economics unfortunately isn't an exact science, it has trends like most any soft science. Demand Side economics is all the rage now, but Supply Side used to be. 2 decades from now it won't be Demand Side people are talking about, it'll be something else.
13:40 Nube: What's emphasized in a textbook at any given decade isn't so much wrong as just not complete. I want to be clear that I'm not saying the texts are wrong
13:40 bigworm: Yeah I’m seeing more and more of that. I think the metric portion of my schooling is the only useful thing.
13:44 Nube: And that will be more than worth the other stuff you might not use.
13:44 bigworm: That and programming it looks like
13:44 Nube: As for which inflation measure, you will have to decide if you want to exclude food and energy, if so, PCE
13:45 Nube: Coding is the literacy of the modern age. You can never know enough
13:46 bigworm: I read something this weekend on models and stationary variables. If one is stationary and the other isn’t, I read that the interpretations of the model will not be accurate.
13:47 bigworm: If one is stationary, do i have to make the other one as well? For an ols model?
13:47 Nube: Personally I'd like to see food but not energy. Government has enough impact of food prices that its arguably not just market fluctuations impacting price and therefore can't be excluded.
13:48 AlphaInvestor: Univesity of Chicago professors regularly talk about the Efficient Market Hypothesis as if markets are perfectly efficient ... but we all know they are not (and so do they).
"In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not." -- Einstein
13:48 bigworm: Ok is that information in fed ?
13:49 AlphaInvestor: Big - P.S. I realize you are not trying to be disrepectful, I hope you realize that I am not either
13:50 bigworm: I know i just didn’t want people to think I don’t believe them i genuinely find this room to be helpful.
13:50 bigworm: More than my instructors that leave me with more questions lol
13:51 bigworm: It’s hard to unlearn wrong things haha
13:55 Nube: Big, regarding OLS and non stationary variables. I dunno for sure, I'm over my head here, but I ~think~ you aren't supposed to use OLS with non stationary variables.
13:56 Nube: So the short answer is, to my extremely limited knowledge, you should stationaryfy it first
13:57 bigworm: Ok thanks
13:58 bigworm: So you think I should exclude energy
14:00 Nube: I would. Commodities more than anything abide the rule "high prices are the cure for high prices and low prices are the cure for low prices
14:01 Nube: So Amy impact they have now either upward or downward is will be gone in a few years time.
14:01 Nube: *any
14:03 AlphaInvestor: Big/Nube - don't take this decision lightly - OIL and GOLD are sometimes correlated, so by excluding energy from your inflation measure, you miss part of the correlation (or lack thereof)
14:04 bigworm: ill run it with both, if they are easy to seperate
14:07 bigworm: yeah ill run those in a bit.  I dont know if I can use OLS if one is variable is stationary and one has a unit root.  probably will have to difference or use an AR model
14:19 Nube: The results might turn out to something a trader might be okay with, it I sort of thought the whole purpose of least squares is defeated if one of the variables isn't stationary
14:21 bigworm: Yeah i just read that i would have to difference
14:21 bigworm: Most likely have to add some lags as well
14:22 bigworm: I have to put food in me before I tackle this lol
14:30 AlphaInvestor: Nube - an example of analysis paralysis - sometimes you can use regressions even if the data ain't perfect
14:33 bigworm: Plus it’s time series so I’m sure there will be autocorrelation
14:34 AlphaInvestor: yup
14:57 ddemann: Does anyone know if there a way to add a current working order in TS?   I am writing a simple peiece of code that displays the percentage loss for the current working stop loss order on a stock position. I need a variable that returns the current stoploss value for GTC order. Is that possible??
15:01 AlphaInvestor: Open orders are not accessible in thinkScript - so no. BUT, if it was one of the more complex stop loss types (trailing stop, % trailing stop) it could be replicated
15:03 ddemann: gotcha thanks
15:09 bigworm: I should probably test for a model structure break
15:11 RayK: Hi. My buffer is missing from 15:11 to 15:56 EDT. Can someone please PB it to me? Thanks.
15:21 bigworm: I see two large structure breaks in this model
15:23 bigworm: one in 1997
15:25 bigworm: oops wrong configuration for dates.  r is so touchy sometimes
15:36 bigworm: so the strucutre break is acutally in 1985 with inflation as the dependent and wages as the regressor, both in terms of percentage monthly
16:24 bigworm: you there NuBe
16:36 Nube: Yep. I'm around.
16:36 bigworm: I got a good model fit
16:36 bigworm: now I just have to test which comes first
16:37 Nube: Good. You're making quick progress on this one
16:37 bigworm: mostly just saved code
16:37 bigworm: cut and paste
16:38 Nube: Wise. Why write the same code over and over and over again
16:38 bigworm: yea thats not good for anyone
16:39 bigworm: so when im done should i just post my r results code on my page?
16:39 bigworm: and a little write up
16:44 Nube: Yeah, I think a lot of people would like that
16:44 bigworm: ok.  It wont be beautiful though just a little writeup and my results
16:44 UpTheCreek: yep, put a link to it on your MyTrade