2/2/24-2/5/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

2/2/24-2/5/24 Update, day 709-712 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Less than 1000 Wagner mercenaries remain in Belarus, and this benefits RU military efforts by forcing UA to maintain troops along its northern border. They're likely performing training missions.

Poland issued a navigational warning about the possibility of "unplanned military activity" for airspace users along the border with Russia and Belarus. This warning is in effect until May 5th.

UA is advancing a law which would expedite customs clearance for individuals bringing in vehicles, via the existing
"Diya" digital system.

UA amended existing legislature, stating now the maximum time a UA soldier can spend out of country for treatment cannot exceed 12 months.

The Hungarian Minister of Foreign affairs Peter Szijarto, stated that Hungary opposes additional EU sanctions against Russia's energy sector, stating that "the sanctions policy has failed so we don't see the point of adopting new ones". Viktor Orban claimed success in the EU funding for UA advancing, stating that if he had opposed it, Hungary would have been cut off from funding and said funding would have been sent to Ukraine anyway.

Poland purchased 300 MWh of surplus UA electricity from the grid for load balancing reasons, as temperatures warm across the country.


Kyiv/ Central Ukraine:

Zelensky confirmed he is considering replacing Zaluzhny, speaking about a new management direction for the country's leadership. Per Western media, Zelensky relented on removing Zaluzhny when information leaked to the press.

Zelensky reiterated that fair exemptions will be made to mobilization for workers in the defense industrial complex.

GUR Head Budanov requested decommissioned CRV7 missiles from Canada, who has a large stockpile of said air-to-ground rockets, stating these could be used for other methods then helicopter strikes. The 70mm rocket has considerable kinetic penetration (penetrating a T-72 at 3 km) and a maximum range of 4km when fired from the air. There were also apparent modifications done previously to allow it to launch from a land platform as a highly capable ATGM replacement. Canada states they are unsure about the stability and safety of the solid fueled rockets, which Budanov replied was a "issue you can let us worry about"

UA Parliament announced the cost for mobilizing 500,000 soldiers stands at $19.1 billion USD, approximately 22.5% of the entire budget and 41% of the defense budget. The General Freiding of the German Budeswehr stated that UA must mobilize more soldiers.

Over 3000 explosives have been defused in Ukraine since the start of the year by the State Emergency Service, for an overall total of 468,000 objects and 2900kg of explosives.

The UA State Security Service has made unspecified "personnel changes" following an inquiry into prolonged investigation of UA investigative journalists.

Two additional unspecified western air platforms have been delivered to Ukraine.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city region:

3 RU soldiers in a Recon unit were struck by UA mortars as they crossed the border into UA.

RU reportedly intercepted several drones over the Bryansk region overnight.

Kharkiv was shelled with S-300 missiles overnight.

RU continues to shell Vovchansk immediately near the RU border, damaging a number of houses with no reported casualties.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv/Kreminna:

RU continues to amass tanks and equipment for an assault towards East Kharkiv, and is taking large losses. RU lost 200 soldiers and 45 pieces of equipment in the last 24 hours. Approximately 40,000 RU troops are arranged towards Kupyansk along with approximately 500 tanks and 600 APCs. Given the disposition of UA drones here, it remains to be seen whether RU will collect these vehicles into sufficient mass to large massive strikes, or if the smaller assaults will continue with losses.

RU has heavily utilized airstrikes towards Kyslivka N of the ceded UA positions near the highway at Tabaivka. RU has overall doubled its artillery fire in this region, firing up to 800x a day as compared to 400 previously.

RU did not conduct any assaults towards Kupyansk over the last day. 3 assaults were recorded toward Terny.

RU continues to advance towards Terny in the Zherebets river valley, losing vehicles along the way. RU is approximately 3.2 km away from the main highway controlling the region, having made similar distance gains over December/January.

A talented German Medic, Diana "Snake" Wagner, was killed when artillery struck her evacuation vehicle in this region. The Carpathian Sich unit held a memorial service for her that was well attended.

RU continues to shell into Kupyansk, dropping two glide bombs into the downtown area that thankfully did not explode.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

UA HIMARs shelled an LPR meeting in Lysychansk, killing several former rebel commanders dating back to 2014.

RU launched 3 assaults towards Bohdanivka and Klischiivka. Heavy RU drone attacks NW of Bakhmut have been noted, as UA FPV's continue to strike into Bakhmut city proper.

UA advanced slightly from their positions in the hills NW of Klischiivka, pushing back the ground taken by RU in December. UA tank activity has increased S of here, pounding RU posiitions in Kuryumivka.


Avdiivka:

The situation in Avdiivka has deteriorated, as RU forces appear to have made considerable gains to the N of the city and smaller ones to the SW. These are supported by heavy RU airstrikes, newly contesting a wide area of the N residential districts. UA soldiers in the region have expressed concern about the situation, stating it is becoming untenable.

950 people remain in the city. Evacuation is incredibly challenging. 40 barrages are recorded a day.

RU launched 31 attacks towards Avdiivka and 13 attacks towards Pervomaiske in the last 24 hours, or a new assault every 35 minutes.

Reportedly M1A1 tanks attached to the 47th Brigade are expecting action in this region.

RU shelled Pokrovsk, damaging heating infrastructure for about a day before repairs.


Donetsk/Luhansk/Occupied areas:

RU attempted 14 attacks towards Novomykhalivka and Georgiivka over the last 24 hours.

RU reportedly plans to institute a UAV assembly course for students in the occupied territories.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU fired 144 barrages on 20 settlements in the south, as well as 27 UAV attacks in the last 24 hours.

On Feb 2nd, RU launched 24 Shaheds towards the Dnipro region. 11 were destroyed, and 7 intercepted via EW for a total of 18/24 interception. It's noted that UA allegedly has developed a nationwide EW jamming system of unknown scale and effectiveness, believed to be built on a GPS/INS (GNSS) jamming system.

UA repelled 2 RU attacks near Robotyne, as Zelensky and his staff made a visit to troops in the area this weekend.

The German public television channel ZDF gave a special report on the situation in Mariupol, which was condemned by UA public media and others for being one-sided and revisionist in advancing an RU Narrative of "life is normal here and better for RU-speaking citizens".

5 RU FSB agents were detained in Zaporizhia, Odesa, and Donetsk. They had provided scouting reports on ZSU movements and ammo depots.


Kherson:

UA EW continues to impede RU activity near Krynky, where RU attacked 3 times in the last day. The lack of coordination between disparate RU units here is apparently contributing to their losses.

RU shelled the center of Kherson, destroying a humanitarian collection and distribution that services thousands of people per day. Approximately 90,000 people remain in Kherson city currently. 4 people were later killed in separate shelling/

Two french volunteers were killed and several others wounded during an RU attack on Beryslav. The UA government has imposed a "red zone" prohibition on foreign volunteers traveling among several areas of NE Kherson Oblast following this strike, and continued UA efforts to force locals to evacuate from the region.

RU continues to specifically target emergency services with drones across the river.

The former director of the Nova Kahkovka History Museum is charged with collaborationism with occupying RU authorities.

700 pieces of UXO were defused in Kherson region last week.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

One submarine is active in the Black Sea, carrying 4 Kalibr missiles.

To date, 661 ships have exported 20 million tons of grain and other cargo through the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea

Russia:

Georgia reportedly intercepted a shipment of 14kg of C4 explosives sent from Odesa to Voronezh in Russia, hidden in car batteries. Note that previously UA used Georgia to import explosives into RU for the truck bombing of the Kerch Bridge.

RU Major Oleg Stegachev, a TU-95 bomber commander, was shot in Engels Russia. It's unclear if he survived. UA claimed responsibility.

Reportedly RU prisoner-conscripts have found their "6 month contracts= amnesty" automatically extended, stating "If you sign up now, be prepared to die"


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 5 airstrikes and RU forces 43 air strikes (including drones) and 1 missile strikes. 51 RU MLRS strikes were additionally recorded as RU redoubled its efforts in the East.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
810x troops (389,560 in total)
4x APC
5x Tank
1x Air defense
18x Artillery (0x MLRS)
0x Aircraft
19x vehicles
0 x UAV

Over the last week:

The Russians lost:
6640 troops
63 tanks
147 APC
234 artillery systems
7 MLRS
3 SAM
1 ship
290 vehicles
43 units of special equipment.


Overseas:

The US has announced they currently have a production rate of 36,000 155mm shells per month, with expectation of 70,000/month by end of year.

The EU draft of the $50 billion euro package was announced, with 39 billion Euros for state budget, 8 Billion euros for covering risks in priority sectors of the country, and 3 billion in technical support and loan interest coverage.

Armenia wants to establish closer ties with the US and EU rather then RU, per the Armenian PM, due to RU letting them down with regards to CSTO commitments in the past.

Spain is training UA officers in Patriot battery maintenance.

The Netherlands are preparing 6 additional F-16 for transfer to Ukraine, bringing the total to 24.

The US Senate may vote on the aid package to UA as part of the omnibus border/UA aid package as soon as Wednesday Feb 7th after Senate leader Chuck Schumer moved to end debate on the matter. House republican leadership Mike Johnson appears reluctant to bring the bill to a vote, stating it is "dead on arrival". The proposed bill provides
$20 billion USD for replenishment of US military stocks
$14 billion USD for replenishment of UA military stocks from US production runs
$15 Billion USD for military training, intel, and other support measures
$149 million USD for the Nuclear Security Administration "to respond to the security situation" in Ukraine.

The newest EU Sanctions on RU are the weakest thus far, seeking unanimous consent among partner nations.