theunpromisedone3

Trapwire Stratfor Email 30

Aug 10th, 2012
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  1. Re: [alpha] Trapwire on Kabul Hotel Attack
  2.  
  3. Released on 2012-08-09 18:00 GMT
  4. Email-ID 83568
  5. Date 2011-06-29 16:14:18
  6. From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
  7. To burton@stratfor.com, alpha@stratfor.com
  8. List-Name alpha@stratfor.com
  9. This makes sense, they don't know anymore than we do on the targetting.
  10. But the other thing is to compare their capabilities with available
  11. targets. They may simply have not thought they could exploit a
  12. vulnerability at the Serena, so chose the next most high profile target.
  13.  
  14. Did not see this before I sent out last Insight questions, but I had seen
  15. this earlier insight-
  16.  
  17. Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
  18. gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).
  19.  
  20. Can we confirm that? Once they got to the gate, which I assume is farther
  21. away from the hotel at the bottom of a hill, how did they get through the
  22. next checkpoints?
  23.  
  24. On 6/29/11 8:22 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  25.  
  26. Two schools of thought on this at the moment:
  27.  
  28.  
  29.  
  30. 1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
  31. transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as
  32. much as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly communicated
  33. to their Taliban planners during the operation that they were going
  34. door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or not this was
  35. Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression they were
  36. head-hunting foreigners.
  37.  
  38.  
  39.  
  40. 2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs
  41. were staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true, there
  42. were some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could have been
  43. the Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still strong, and
  44. that no decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur without them.
  45. In other words, a pure intimidation op.
  46.  
  47.  
  48.  
  49.  
  50.  
  51. Mike, Who do you think the target was? Thanks
  52.  
  53. --
  54.  
  55. Sean Noonan
  56.  
  57. Tactical Analyst
  58.  
  59. Office: +1 512-279-9479
  60.  
  61. Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
  62.  
  63. Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
  64.  
  65. www.stratfor.com
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