[05:11:57] George S. [Disaster Area]: I blame david cameron
[05:12:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: for calling the referendum
[05:12:14] George S. [Disaster Area]: it's one where the leave campaign automatically have the advantage and the media will
[05:12:19] George S. [Disaster Area]: control the debate in that method
[05:12:26] George S. [Disaster Area]: because
[05:12:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: leaving is arguably better for big business
[05:12:38] George S. [Disaster Area]: that wants to screw everyone over
[05:12:41] George S. [Disaster Area]: so they tilt the debate
[05:12:45] George S. [Disaster Area]: and then
[05:12:50] George S. [Disaster Area]: the leave campaign are free to offer
[05:12:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: a campaign of either hope or fear
[05:13:00] George S. [Disaster Area]: whilst the remain
[05:13:04] George S. [Disaster Area]: are forced to say effectively
[05:13:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: the status quo is fine
[05:13:09] George S. [Disaster Area]: which it isn't
[05:13:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: and everyone knows it
[05:13:15] George S. [Disaster Area]: so the argument they have to make
[05:13:19] George S. [Disaster Area]: is so much more complicated
[05:13:21] George S. [Disaster Area]: they have to say that
[05:13:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: the status quo is fucked but leaving the EU will make it worse not better
[05:14:50] George S. [Disaster Area]: what's even worse is
[05:14:55] George S. [Disaster Area]: that any endorsements
[05:14:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: of remain
[05:15:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: have the capacity to backfire
[05:15:02] George S. [Disaster Area]: e.g.
[05:15:13] George S. [Disaster Area]: we have the majority of economists on the side of remain
[05:15:16] George S. [Disaster Area]: but
[05:15:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: the media made it appear that there was a majority of economists
[05:15:27] George S. [Disaster Area]: who supported austerity
[05:15:34] George S. [Disaster Area]: even though that's false, that's how the country sees it
[05:15:35] George S. [Disaster Area]: so
[05:15:41] George S. [Disaster Area]: that's why people will ignore those experts or
[05:15:45] George S. [Disaster Area]: even actively work against them
[05:15:48] George S. [Disaster Area]: the trouble is with
[05:15:49] George S. [Disaster Area]: gove saying
[05:15:53] George S. [Disaster Area]: people are fed up with experts
[05:16:00] George S. [Disaster Area]: obviously that's an insane position BUT
[05:16:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: in some cases you can't blame them

-

[05:16:28] George S. [Disaster Area]: this is not really a referendum just about racism and immigration
[05:16:32] George S. [Disaster Area]: if it were just about that leave would have lost
[05:16:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: it's because our pm started a referendum that he was on the side of not changing things
[05:17:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: where the media can frame it in a way that is against him
[05:17:27] George S. [Disaster Area]: where people won't listen to the experts because of how the media has framed expert opinion in the past
[05:17:53] George S. [Disaster Area]: where the leader of the opposition is made to look unprincipled and the issue itself is incredibly complicated
[05:18:16] George S. [Disaster Area]: where the side of the status quo was forced to make much more complex arguements
[05:18:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: the leave side say, leaving will solve our problems
[05:18:36] George S. [Disaster Area]: the remain side have to say, leaving won't solve our problems they'll make them worse
[05:18:52] George S. [Disaster Area]: and it's a lot more complicated an argument to make
[05:19:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: because the status quo right now
[05:19:04] George S. [Disaster Area]: doesn't work for people
[05:19:17] George S. [Disaster Area]: so if your argument is effectively seen as arguing for the status quo
[05:19:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: it's hard to change that framing from
[05:19:48] George S. [Disaster Area]: arguing for the status quo into arguing against an argument against the status quo because it's a negative not a positive change
[05:20:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: so the leave side from the start have a simpler argument to make
[05:20:14] George S. [Disaster Area]: and secondly leave's arguments go much more after the heart and remain after the head
[05:20:34] George S. [Disaster Area]: obviously the heart wins out
[05:20:40] George S. [Disaster Area]: because of the reasons I described
[05:20:52] George S. [Disaster Area]: and all of the remain campaigning
[05:20:55] George S. [Disaster Area]: appeared half-hearted
[05:21:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: because none of the leaders actually like the EU
[05:21:06] George S. [Disaster Area]: they just know we're better in than out
[05:21:16] George S. [Disaster Area]: whereas the people arguing against it
[05:21:20] George S. [Disaster Area]: have passion and fervour
[05:21:28] Noodle: From what I understand- the "bloody immigrant" numbers are close to something like .002 %? and yet Britain acts extremely xenophobic
[05:21:34] George S. [Disaster Area]: so the emotional argument wins over the logical one
[05:21:50] George S. [Disaster Area]: 0.5% immigants
[05:21:56] Noodle: ah- still extremely low
[05:22:00] George S. [Disaster Area]: the fewer immigrants the more xenophobic a country
[05:22:14] Chris Radelet: That's still pretty high tbh; one in 200 people.
[05:22:20] George S. [Disaster Area]: yea
[05:22:22] Noodle: No see
[05:22:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: people are worried about
[05:22:25] George S. [Disaster Area]: the strain on
[05:22:25] Noodle: the US is 13.3 percent
[05:22:27] George S. [Disaster Area]: stuff like
[05:22:29] George S. [Disaster Area]: the NHS
[05:22:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: caused by immigrants
[05:22:35] George S. [Disaster Area]: but the fact is
[05:22:42] Chris Radelet: Yeah, but your country is fucking moronic. The UK is a real country.
[05:22:46] George S. [Disaster Area]: you're more likely to have an immigrant working in it than using it
[05:22:52] George S. [Disaster Area]: and blaming the issues on imigration
[05:23:00] George S. [Disaster Area]: skirts the real issue
[05:23:02] Noodle: I'm saying like- in comparison that's extremely low- so it means Britain is more xenophobic per immigrant than the US
[05:23:05] George S. [Disaster Area]: which is the government underfunding it
[05:23:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: one advantage of the US system over the UK system btw
[05:24:03] George S. [Disaster Area]: is choosing the party leader before the election rather than after
[05:24:20] Noodle: nods
[05:24:30] George S. [Disaster Area]: with that one change in the UK, the conservatives would have not gotten
[05:24:31] George S. [Disaster Area]: a majority
[05:24:48] George S. [Disaster Area]: their majority was incredibly slim as it was

-

[05:40:02] George S. [Disaster Area]: 'Arguably yesterday's vote would have been different if we had same-day or automatic voter registration.'
[05:40:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: just made that as a facebook status
[05:41:00] Chris Radelet: Automatic (universal) voter registration is the ideal.
[05:41:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: whilst campaigning I did meet at least a couple of people
[05:41:14] George S. [Disaster Area]: who would have voted remain if there were same-day registration

-

[05:45:21] George S. [Disaster Area]: anyway this looks like we'll definitely have a Scottish referendum and maybe have an irish one too.
[05:46:19] George S. [Disaster Area]: we might also have another general election
[05:46:21] George S. [Disaster Area]: but that's uncertain
[05:46:29] George S. [Disaster Area]: will have to see how the next week plays out
[05:46:43] Chris Radelet: Lots of political action is a good thing though, right?
[05:46:48] Chris Radelet: Just less so much this one.
[05:47:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: eh maybe
[05:47:36] George S. [Disaster Area]: the UK will suddenly be short half of its countries though
[05:47:51] George S. [Disaster Area]: not sure how plaid cymru did in the last election but
[05:48:05] George S. [Disaster Area]: at least the fact wales and England voted roughly the same way
[05:48:13] George S. [Disaster Area]: means there's less calls for any welsh referendum
[05:48:58] George S. [Disaster Area]: and w.r.t.
[05:49:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: another general election
[05:49:03] George S. [Disaster Area]: right now
[05:49:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: the conservatives are a mess
[05:49:12] George S. [Disaster Area]: labour are a mess
[05:49:18] George S. [Disaster Area]: snp have Scotland on lockdown anyway
[05:49:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: the lib dems are on a downward spiral
[05:49:37] George S. [Disaster Area]: and the greens aren't really relevant yet
[05:49:39] George S. [Disaster Area]: so basically
[05:49:43] George S. [Disaster Area]: ukip are going to fill the power gap
[05:49:49] George S. [Disaster Area]: unless labour surprises
[05:49:54] George S. [Disaster Area]: I think we'll have
[05:49:59] George S. [Disaster Area]: a conservative/ukip coalition
[05:50:04] George S. [Disaster Area]: if we have another general election
[05:50:08] George S. [Disaster Area]: there's a small possibility instead of a
[05:50:18] George S. [Disaster Area]: labour/snp/maybe+green/plaid cymru
[05:50:24] George S. [Disaster Area]: coalition
[05:50:29] George S. [Disaster Area]: if labour does better than I expect
[05:50:42] George S. [Disaster Area]: their party is a mess but their leader is arguably very popular
[05:50:48] George S. [Disaster Area]: but the media frames it as the opposite
[05:51:04] George S. [Disaster Area]: what isn't deniable though is that the majority of his party is 1 to the right of him and 2 doesn't really agree with him very much
[05:51:13] George S. [Disaster Area]: because fuck tony blair and his legacy
[05:51:18] George S. [Disaster Area]: giving us 2 mainstream right wing parties