SpanishCovid19POV

(A Google translated transcript of a Spanish doctor's perspective of the coronavirus crisis and public health
risk from Barcelona.)

Why is COVID-19 extremely dangerous? The danger level of an infectious agent depends on the combination of 3 factors: the "vector of contagion" (how it is transmitted), morbidity and mortality.

COVID-19 has a contagion vector between 1.5 and 2.5, that is, 3 times higher than influenza.  Which implies that its spread is geometric: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256 ... but worst of all, unlike influenza and SARS, the last coronavirus epidemic in 2003, this is also spread during the two weeks of incubation, before even having symptoms (ed: average incubation thought to be ~5 days).

As for the morbidity-mortality, it is as follows.  One thing must be clear: WE ARE ALL GOING TO BE INFECTED BY COVID-19 in the next three months (ed: other data disagrees with this).

Of every 1000 people who are infected, 900 will pass it asymptomatically, including children and young people.  100 will show symptoms.  Of those 100, 80 will feel it like a very screwed up flu: dry cough, headache and muscle. That is, two or three weeks at home feeling worse than a dog.  Of the remaining 20, 15 will develop bilateral pneumonia with difficulty breathing, which will require hospital admission to administer bronchodilators, corticosteroids, and oxygen.  The remaining 5 will develop pulmonary fibrosis that will require immediate admission to the ICU with assisted breathing.  Of those 5, 3 will die.  And the two that are saved will present sequels that will possibly force a lung transplant.

These are the figures that are currently handled in the western scientific community. The data in China is worse because its health system was not prepared.

Seen like that, it doesn't seem that serious, does it?  The problem is that, unlike the flu, to which a part of the population is vaccinated and also attacks progressively throughout 5 months of the year, this infection is a wave (See Italy). So in two-three months all infections will occur.

So we already have the data to do the math.  Of the 40 million Spaniards, only 4 million will have symptoms.  Of which 3,200,000 will have a bad flu at home.  600,000 will need hospital admission with oxygen.  And 200,000 will need ICU.  The problem is that in Spain there are, between the public and private health systems, only 200,000 hospital beds and 3,800 ICU beds.  Do you see the problem?

The real problem is not the disease itself, despite the fact that it has a significant morbidity and mortality, but, due to its epidemiological characteristics, it comes in a wave infecting a whole population that has no previous immunity in a matter of 2-3 months,  COLLAPSING THE SANITARY SYSTEM ... !!!!

This means that when hospital beds and ICUs are full, it will be necessary to apply what is known as War Medicine. That is, when for each bed that is free there are 7 people waiting, the professionals will have to decide who they already attend  who are sent home saying that they will send them a doctor and an oxygen cylinder, which will never come because they will also be finished.  That decision will be made based on age and general condition.  That is, the youngest will be chosen, who will have a better chance of survival.  This without counting the rest of serious and urgent pathologies: heart attacks, strokes, traffic accidents, etc. All this without beds and without ICU.

This looks like a science fiction movie, but this is happening RIGHT NOW in northern Italy.  A country that two weeks ago was like us (Spain) now, let us not forget.

Healthcare in Madrid has already collapsed.  They are telling the population that if they have symptoms, do not go to hospitals or health centers or call 112, but rather call 900 102 112. There are people who have been calling all morning and cannot get their phone picked up  .  It is expected that, at the rate it is spreading, Spanish Health will collapse in early April.

This is the situation.  What to do then?  Let's see. This is a lottery: every time you go outside or touch surfaces or go to gatherings, you buy tickets. The more tickets you buy, the higher chance you have of "winning" your prize: infection.  Therefore, what you must do is NOT BUY BALLOTS.

In other words, for the next few weeks, go exclusively to work (ed: or not, if possible) and buy from the supermarket when necessary.  Do not eat outside, do not go to any gathering of people, do not use public transport.  It will only be a few weeks.

You may be wondering: if we are all going to take it, why isolate ourselves so much?  As you will see, whether a person suffers the disease asymptomatically, such as the flu or needs hospital admission, depends fundamentally on the age and immune status of the patient.  But also of a concept called "viral load", that is, the number of millions of viruses that have entered our body at the time of infection.  The higher that viral load, the more damage the virus can do to our lungs as our defenses organize and make the antibodies to defend themselves.  Obviously it is not the same to kiss an infected person, directly breathe infected moisture droplets from an infected person or touch an object where those droplets have fallen 3 hours ago and then touch our faces.

So we must all try to ensure that, when we get infected, the viral load is as low as possible.  That is why it is recommended not to attend meetings of people or public places.