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events_and_chuusen_pool

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  1.  
  2. VRMasterToday at 1:36 PM
  3. Looking over a fan TL it's vaguer than I was led to believe. It certainly is keeping Mari's backstory where she left for a year and then came back. But even in a scenario where it's wholly Chika's idea, Muse still wouldn't be the inspiration for the group when they're contemporaries.
  4.  
  5. VRMasterToday at 2:59 PM
  6. oh, supplemental data point: checked in with my friend who, like me, also applied on the last day
  7. he also dekimasen'd with an application number of 912
  8.  
  9. starlightk7Today at 3:01 PM
  10. the conspiracy theory grows :eyes:
  11.  
  12. VRMasterToday at 3:01 PM
  13. the application numbers are obviously order received; I'm just not sold on it secretly being FCFS, because...why bother with the disguise of a lottery?
  14. just actually make it FCFS
  15.  
  16. starlightk7Today at 3:02 PM
  17. so that people dont get pissed off when you announced it while they were sleeping/at work / whatever
  18.  
  19. VRMasterToday at 3:03 PM
  20. actually pissed if the reason I'm SOL is because I took their claims of doesn't matter when you apply seriously and actually thought through if I could afford it
  21.  
  22. starlightk7Today at 3:03 PM
  23. if its to gaijin, its both hard to prove it wasnt random and hard to sue if you were pissed, so :AiAiShrug:
  24. (just throwing out conspiracy logic)
  25.  
  26. VRMasterToday at 3:04 PM
  27. it's not like you can sue anyway, just don't see the point in a charade when they clearly know how to do a random selection
  28.  
  29. starlightk7Today at 3:04 PM
  30. it seems like they do everything by hand shoddily. look at how the form was evolving in peoples screenshots, plus how the emails go out kinda sequentially. i wouldnt be surprised if they dont really have a lottery system
  31. its very amatuer and a lottery system actually costs money to develop or buy (which they obviously didnt buy, cause look at their site)
  32. if you had to be lazy when doing it manually, the easiest way would be sequential :Suhaha~2:
  33.  
  34. VRMasterToday at 3:07 PM
  35. I'd think the easiest way to do a cheap and dirty lottery would be to just use an RNG, set the possible outcomes to any number between 1-X and keep going until you're out of seats.
  36. though the only way to disprove it being FCFS is someone with a low application number with a dekimasen or someone with a high number getting selected
  37.  
  38. starlightk7Today at 3:08 PM
  39. yep
  40. :blobpopcorn:
  41. i dont disagree with your above statement, but its probably given to a low paid intern who isnt going to bother going the extra mile
  42.  
  43. MARUピョン💜✨Today at 3:09 PM
  44. Ask the salt room lol
  45. I also have a friend who applied late and dekimasen’d
  46. Idk how late tho
  47.  
  48. starlightk7Today at 3:10 PM
  49. imo, always just apply right away. you can always self dekimasen by not paying
  50. RNGs also have edge case bias usually
  51. so if youre among the last to apply, your chances are often lower. you generally are best off in the middle, which is most likely to be gotten in the heat of the moment during the rush
  52.  
  53. VRMasterToday at 3:11 PM
  54. at the time I thought it was like the others where you need payment data up front, so I was trying to be financially responsible and make sure I could afford the bloated price
  55. don't shame me for that
  56.  
  57. starlightk7Today at 3:11 PM
  58. oh im not shaming you
  59. sorry if you read it that way
  60. there are a lot of bias in PRNG systems that can screw you even if the lottery runner doesnt intend to
  61. for example, if names are alpha sorted before being put into the RNG, your actual name could give you a higher or lower rate on many algorithms
  62.  
  63. VRMasterToday at 3:13 PM
  64. oh yeah; just another "RNG isn't actually random" example
  65. it's a reasonable facsimile, but computers can't generate a number without an input, so...yeah
  66.  
  67. Kannazuki888Today at 7:33 PM
  68. Rng generators are everywhere in Japan. The hand crank ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if they used that because there were only a few thousand people
  69.  
  70. starlightk7Today at 7:35 PM
  71. disprove the conspiracy theory - find someone with reception number <587 that lost :Suhaha~2:
  72.  
  73. Erm🔜ANYC Lantis MatsuriToday at 7:38 PM
  74. There’s no way I was the 39th person to apply though
  75. You being the 16th I believe though :joy:
  76.  
  77. starlightk7Today at 7:53 PM
  78. pfffft dont rain on my conspiracy theory :AnchanPout:
  79. (when did you apply anyways)
  80.  
  81. Erm🔜ANYC Lantis MatsuriToday at 8:00 PM
  82. 10/20 at like 10:30pm is my confirm email
  83. From what I saw on Twitter it opened up like half an hour before I applied
  84.  
  85. MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:03 PM
  86. Could maybe be right then you never know
  87. Rip dekimasen niji
  88. Sorry star
  89.  
  90. starlightk7Today at 8:13 PM
  91. ill enter the open round
  92. and if that doesnt get it ill just scalp d1
  93. oh btw i still owe you money >.< ill send that over shortly
  94.  
  95. Kannazuki888Today at 8:16 PM
  96. If you go, cheer Akarin on for me
  97.  
  98. MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:17 PM
  99. Want me to try open round too?
  100.  
  101. starlightk7Today at 8:19 PM
  102. o right i can enter both accounts
  103. thanks for reminder :Suhaha~2:
  104.  
  105. MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:20 PM
  106. Lolol
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