I've got a couple other thoughts that have been kicking around my head over the past weeks. The Kurds have decided to ally themselves with Syria, which means Russia by proxy. This thus puts Russia and Turkey at odds (more so) as Turkey campaigns against the Syrian/Kurdish forces.

In the words of Ned Stark, "Winter is Coming," and Russia's ports are about to ice over. If they grind the Turks' gears enough, the Turks will close off all access for Russian shipping from the Black Sea... and pretty much nobody can do anything about it.

Erdogan has already threatened to drop 3 million Syrian refugees on Europe's doorstep should they dare to condemn his current incursion into Syria. Given the already tenuous situation in many European governments due to Merkel and Co's prior open door migrant resettlement policy, that mass move would lead to the immediate collapse of several European governments to be replaced by hard-line nationalists. The EU experiment would be over at that point, as every nation would look out for its own interests and do whatever needed to be done to avoid absorbing a major portion of those 3 million refugees. Brexit would seem a minor nuisance by comparison.

The Turks would likely take that migrant resettlement opportunity to settle some old scores with the Greeks, forcing many of the migrants into Greek territory. Greece already struggles mightily to function as a state; it may cease to function as a state at all with a million or more Syrian refugees trying to find food and shelter within its borders.

The United Nations is in no position to help with this refugee crisis. As was noted last week, due to general disinterest from the nations of the world in financially supporting its mission, the UN is close to running out of money. They've scaled back from fancy dinners and global travel to focus on only "essential operations." There's no money in the UN kitty to mitigate the effects of a heightened Syrian refugee crisis come to Europe.

So.... that was a long, roundabout way of saying that the EU isn't going to tell Turkey to allow Russia to navigate through the Bosporus and Dardanelles. Several EU governments, some EU states, and the entire EU itself might be the cost of making such a statement. Russia's winter sea access is currently at risk. The next few weeks of negotiations between the Syrians and Kurds, Turks and Russians are critical to avoid that.

Should the Turks convert the Black Sea into a lake by cutting it off from the Mediterranean, the Russians would likely act militarily. The thing is, that relic of the Cold War, NATO, has got them pretty well boxed in. Should they seek to improve their sea access to the West, which is the only direction which is practical, they would have to attack a NATO country (there is the alternative of attacking Finland, but the Russians want none of that Finnish action again). The Russians could go after more Baltic waterfront in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, or they could try and force the straits in Turkey. Either way, they would be kicking down NATO's door.

Who will be there to answer? The Turks may be trying to have their cake and eat it, too, right now, using their threat of refugee dumping as a means of buying European compliance, yet simultaneously holding the threat of NATO solidarity and military action as a means of limiting a Russian response. The European NATO members would likely show up in defense, as they've all been expecting this Russian attack ever since the Soviets re-branded. They also know that if they don't and Russia gains any type of strategic advantage from such an attack, that it will simply kick off a series of Russian attacks and land grabs designed to give Russia narrower, more defensible borders and warm water ports (see Zeihan's first book for what this might look like).

So, the Europeans will answer the NATO call. The question is - will the Americans? I'd like to think so, but it would certainly be an ironic twist to see us move 51 soldiers out of Erdogan's way only to turn around and commit forces and materiel to fight a much larger campaign against a much larger (but fading) power.

Well, that's as far as my mind has gotten on this. It's a rabbit hole for sure, and I hope I'm the only one in it, otherwise, there's about to be a lot of pain in a lot of places in Eurasia.