10/28/23-10/30/23 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

10/28-10/30/23 Update, day 612-614 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

RU instructors have continued to increase their presence in Belarus, specifically training Belarusian drone operators.This appears to specifically be recon drones such as the Supercam, up to the S350 model which has an operating range of approx 240km. It is suggested that RU may attempt to recruit Belarusian drone operators in the future.

There continue to be no significant operational threats from Belarus, although they are almost on the 80th week extension for their ongoing April 2022 exercises.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

In the aftermath of a heavy storm in central Ukraine, several people were killed by debris, and power infrastructure in 16 oblasts was damaged and taken offline by the wind.

There has been a noted lack of air launched cruise missiles for over a month now, and it is believed RU is stockpiling missiles to attack the energy grid over the winter. There were a dozen Shahed drones, and 2 missiles launched overnight. All were intercepted.

Zelensky and his staff had a sobering interview with TIME today, which expressed his administrations concerns regarding equipment shortages at the frontline, the world "getting bored of the war, like its a rerun" and the shifting international focus to the Israel/Gaza war. Concerns were also raised about the aging demographics of the ZSU, with the average age of soldiers over 42.

However, the UA government has been making statements implying that those who seek local police employment as a way to "dodge the draft" will no longer be exempt from mobilization in the future.

Following civilian protest and petitions, the Kyiv Government is positively responding to requests to divert more of its funds to the UA military, after a rash of apparent corruption centered around purchasing extravagant luxuries for bomb shelters, rather then more efficient usages of money.

The UA Minister of Foreign affairs stated that by the end of this week, UA will work to make substantive progress in EU membership negotiations.



Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

RU forces continue to shell the border settlements of NE Ukraine, and reinforce their own side of the border with mines and other impediments.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

While RU forces continue to launch attacks from the NE Kuyansk direction, there is likewise no significant change. The terrain between Lyman Pershyi and Kupyansk, towards Petropavlivka, is very exposed to UA fire and as such UA has maintained control. The poor weather conditions have led to a reduction in drone and helicopter operations on the RU side.

RU forces are continuing attempts to advance west from Yahidne, though the ground control over the fields NE of the major regional highway remains unclear.

UA appears to be conducting a number of strikes to the highway SW of Svatove, with drone footage showcasing a number of RU vehicles destroyed.

Further south, near Makiivka, RU is continuing to make slow progress across the fields over the last several weeks. It appears RU is still fixated on regaining control of the Zherebets river as a natural terrain feature to both reinforce, and an attempt to freeze the conflict in Luhansk oblast. Continued assaults towards Torske (further S) also support this.

220 families with children in 21 settlements in the Kupyansk district are being forcibly evacuated, after a long process and one former mandatory evacuation. Police are being given the power to refuse entry to families bringing children into said conflict zones, and humanitarian organizations are standing by to assist in transport.


Kramatorsk:

South of Bakhmut, UA forces continue to make strikes towards Kuryumivka along the river, in broader attempts to retake the southern access to Bakhmut.

RU forces are reportedly strengthening their forces here per the UA general staff, and moving from defensive to offensive operations.

Representatives from the republic paid special attention to Lysychansk, and spoke about "reassigning" housing for incoming workers from Russia.


Avdiivka:

Russian forces have continued to make small advances around NW and SW Avdiivka, at great cost. Currently, the NW contact line is at the main highway leading into the town, and it appears the bulk of RU forces are concentrated here.

To the SW, RU forces continue to make intermittent progress across the fields, but the advances here from Vodyane have been minimal in comparison.

UA defense officials claim that RU has lost 6500 soldiers in the Avdiivka offensive in the last 20 days since the offensive began.

Airstrikes and artillery fire continue in the city and main roads leading into it, but an RU SU-25 was shot down. This is the 6th RU aircraft shot down since the offensive began.

Should RU forces continue to make progress from the north, they will likely attempt to secure control over the western road leading into Avdiivka- the main supply route. The massive losses of RU forces over the last weeks, due in large part to an appropriate amount of UA artillery ammo, will complicate RU plans, equipment, and morale.

Reportedly, Wagner forces are being introduced as well as Storm-Z units, who are being used in highly costly infantry assaults. Either due to a lack of RU artillery resources or caring, these infantry assaults go unsupported by RU artillery, and result in massive losses. Due to the destruction of heavy RU equipment previously following failed assaults, and the encroaching winter, it remains to be seen how many more of these "meat assaults" will be fed to the grinder.

Ukrainian doctors successfully extracted a pencil-eraser sized piece of metal from a soldier's heart following a long and complex surgery. The patient is expected to recover.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU forces executed a family of 9, including two young children, in Volnovas when they refused to turn their home over to them. After local outcry, the occupation government arrested 2 RU soldiers from the far east.


Russia has decided to place Luhansk oblast under the control of the Republic of Tartarstan, in terms of continued re-education of local youth into paramilitary programs. At least 200 youth have already been taken to said camps.

RU forces are apparently reaching out to prisoners in the occupied territories, who were incarcerated prior to the war, to enlist.

RU is also attempting to settle former soldiers in the occupied zone, which has led to increased concerns about lawlessness and crimes committed.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

Ua forces continue to launch strikes on RU equipment near Novodonetske and Staromlynivka, in the general Vuhledar area of Western Zaporizhia/Donetsk. There is apparent gain towards the river W of Robotyne.

RU forces have intensified their drone strikes on the southern axis over recent days, with up to 35 daily attacks across the "counteroffensive zone" reported. The increased activity of RU FPV drones has lead to a noted increase in causalities, and more stand-off fighting, as well as losses to APCs during assaults.

RU forces also continue to launch drone strikes from Enerhodar and the area of the Zaporizhia NPP, across the river into Nikopol.

Family members of soldiers who have been enlisted for more then 18 months staged a peaceful protest today in front of the Zaporizhia administration building, demanding a response to their 3rd petition. They claim that due to the lack of clarity on demobilization, morale is suffering, and long-serving soldiers are not being given the necessary time to recover after progressive deployments.

Similar small protests occurred around the country, with government officials coming out to meet the protestors, and promising to communicate their concerns.

Currently, there is no official position regarding demobilization during UA's period of martial law, and no maximum or minimum timeframe.


Kherson:

Following RU shelling, electricity supply to the area around Berislav has been interrupted, and it is unclear when it will be restored. RU forces also shelled a popular library in the city, but the fire was extinguished. Several injuries are reported from general shelling.

Per the Kherson Government, more then 600 children remain in areas that are critically unsafe along the contact line. He entreated family members to evacuate said children to safer areas.

UA forces continue to skirmish with RU troops on the S bank of the Dnipro river, with continued evidence of UA long range fires or drone strikes. There does not appear to be a sizable contingent of UA forces across the river at this time, although UA has advanced further south from their bridgehead at the Antonovsky bridge where they had maintained it for several weeks.

UA forces are alleged to be fighting in Krynky, just across the river from Ivanivka, as RU forces complain about at lack of supplies.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU has recently targeted the Odesa ship repair factory with missiles and drones.

Oleg Tsarev, a former UA parliamentarian and later separatist official, was shot in an SBU assassination attempt in Crimea as confirmed by the agency. He is currently in the hospital in critical condition.

In Odessa, there was a protest demanding the city government divert more funds to the armed forces, and less to discretionary city projects.

Per UA TG channels, RU air defense forces in Olenivka, Crimea, were struck by long range missiles. This comes after last nights large UA drone strike attempt, and reported UA naval drone activity in sevastopol.


Russia:

The RU Afip oil refinery in Krasnodar (just across from Crimea) was attacked by 2 UA drones. This site processes a sizable quantity of fuel for the RUAF.

There continues to be fallout from the heavily anti-Semitic demonstrations in Dagestan, with protestors breaking into an airport and attempting to board a jet from Tel Aviv, looking for jewish passengers. While the RU government blames this on "UA influence ops", the more likely culprit is entrenched divise RU propaganda. 20 people were injured, with 2 remaining in serious condition due to TBI's.

RU political personnel have expressed concern that if such demonstrations spread from the Dagestan region, it could lead to greater divisions in society among the RU populace.

Likewise, there are increased reports of ethnic conflicts brewing between the Tuvan minority and ethnically russian soldiers in the RU military. Many times these are due to the unequal distribution of equipment, and have resulted in fights and deaths.


General:

UA forces conducted 21 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 47 air strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

860x soldiers (Total 299,940)
17x APC
15x Tank
1x Air defense
14x Artillery
23x vehicles
1x Aircraft
20x UAV

Overseas:

Germany provided UA with a new package of military aid, including another IRIS-T air defense system.

Training F-16 jets are expected to arrive from the Netherlands to Romania within the next two weeks.

Norway has stated they are ready to provide assistance to Ukraine in medical treatment and rehabilitation for injured fighters.