DreamGateMaria

Autowin

Dec 2nd, 2017
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  1. DreamGate (mimic) drunk D
  2. Nova (drunk) (clear) village N
  3. betmen bomb B
  4. DalaiLama villager L
  5. FirePsychic villager F
  6. vilden disguiser V
  7.  
  8. V N3 options (with D Drunking L)
  9.  
  10. Kill D: For one, this is a bad idea in terms of gambling, simply because D didn't say what they were mimiced as, and the town prs kept softing that they were mimicked. But this would be best kill. 50% chance of bomb, in which case it would autokill mafia and make town win the game.
  11. But in reality, this is drunk. So killing drunk would make both N and L clear by assuming that D didn't GT. this makes a 50-50 lynch in F and V, with confirmation that guiser didn't guise. If F is lynched, V could either guise into N or L to save themselves, in which it is again a 50-50 lynch. This makes a 87.5% chance of loss in terms of gambling. But, it is a total of 75% chance of losing after the kill goes through, and finding out this is drunk.
  12.  
  13. Kill N: This is safest kill from V's perspective. Because N was clear, and 50% drunk, it was the absolute safest kill. But this would clear L, and make a lynch between V and F regardless of what N was. Say F is lynched, drunk V, and lynch them. Collect points.
  14.  
  15. Kill B: most unsafe kill: either he is villager or he is bomb. If he was villager and killed, there would still be two prs, and 2 mls with 3 clears. But since he is bomb, he would explode mafia and win game. Collect Points.
  16.  
  17. Kill L: This confirms that L was not mafia, and that nobody guised. Lynch F and drunk V. Kill V and win. Collect Town points.
  18.  
  19. Kill F: Dumbest idea with high potential. V would obviously say that F guised into L or whichever of the prs they read as blue. But odds are, if this were to happen, V would be lynched for guessing wrong. But, assume that L is lynched, and N is drunked, V is forced to nk, but it causes drunks for days into autoloss.
  20.  
  21. Guise D: Worst idea because D is confirmed pr. Either bomb explodes ftpov, or drunk is dead, confirming the guised D to be confirmed mafia.
  22.  
  23. Guise N/L/F: They would have to gamble that N is villager (50% chance ftpov), or else they would be drunk. If they did this, it would show V as being dead. Because from town's pov, L could be guised, there would now be 3 unclears: N, L, and F. Assume V guised into F. Assume D or B outs that N will be drunked and L will be killed. F (V) would be forced to nk into drunks for days.
  24.  
  25. Guise B: 50% villager, 50% bomb. Bad gamble. Since they are bomb, they explode, town wins, gg m8s.
  26.  
  27. No Kill: N, B, and D still remain clear. L would be automatically lynched, and say D says they will drunk F (worst case scenario), and so, V has one of two options, both actually leading to autoloss.
  28. -NK, and so F is lynched, Drunk V, lynch V, which makes a win.
  29. -Disguise into F, N, B, or D. 2 of these are prs, which would cause automatic loss if V guised into one of them. If they guised into F or N, then B and D can lynch one, drunk other, and then win.
  30.  
  31. 100(11/12) (Options 2-11, each leading into autoloss) + 100(1/12)(3/4) (3/4 chance of losing in Option 1) = 97.9166667% chance of autowin.
  32.  
  33. 97.9166667 percent, that is pretty high, especially considering that it is a bit higher because the only way to survive is by guising out, and because of gambling odds changing everything.
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