NXT/AEW 11/27 Observer

NXT scored a decisive win in viewers on 11/27 and came close to AEW in the 18-49 demo, more because of the decline by AEW than an increase in NXT.

Normally I would say to throw night before Thanksgiving numbers for comparisons with previous weeks out, although the NXT edge under any circumstances, pulling 810,000 viewers (1.31 viewers per home) to 663,000 for AEW (1.35 viewers per home), is a major story, and not at all for NXT, but very much for AEW.

Both shows drew lower numbers because of the holiday, but the gap is not affected in the sense both were on the same bad night. AEW has dropped the past two weeks notably in viewers per home from when they were highest of every show up until that point.

The key is that AEW had usually been second to the NBA in 18-49 in its time slot in the demo, and has now fallen behind War of the Worlds Challenge on MTV. This show’s 0.26, down from 0.39 the week before when they went head-to-head with stars from all three WWE brands, fell behind Real Housewives of New Jersey on Bravo, BlackInk Crew 8 on VH-1, A Hallmark movie on Hallmark, Forged in Fire on The History Channel and The Oval on BET. So going from No. 2 or No. 3 to No. 9 in the time slot is a decline vs. competition, meaning it’s a lot more significant than just a bad night for viewers in an age group.

In 18-34, AEW’s edge was 115,000 to 87,000 while in 35-49, NXT was ahead 221,000 to 218,000 which has never happened before. With numbers that close and USA being in more homes than TNT, that’s really a dead heat in a demo AEW had been dominating.

NXT gained a lot coming off being the focal point of the Survivor Series and the strong Takeover show. On a normal night both shows probably would have had more viewers and NXT would probably have been the same or up. But for AEW, it was not good and there are no excuses past NXT gained momentum and AEW has lost momentum, badly, with its PPV follow-up. But the story isn’t so much NXT getting hot, because they were down everywhere, but AEW losing viewers so heavily in what was its strongest demo.

NXT won in viewers in every quarter, with only the main event coming close with the beginning of Tommaso Ciampa vs. Finn Balor at 699,000 to 684,000 for Chris Jericho vs. Scorpio Sky. NXT, after AEW ended, gained 151,000 viewers for the last eight minutes, likely mostly being AEW viewers.

NXT’s median viewer age was 55.2 years old, among its oldest to date, while AEW’s was 45.6, its oldest to date. The night before Thanksgiving definitely impacted the younger audience more than the older audience and did hurt AEW more because it skews younger, but the closeness of the demo and the level of losses in that demo by AEW to that level is more than just it being the biggest bar night of the year except New Year’s Eve for those 18-49.

In the segment-by-segment, AEW opened with 730,000 viewers and 394,000 in 18-49 for the Chris Jericho celebration while NXT had 916,000 viewers and 349,000 in 18-49 for its quick celebration and the Roderick Strong (replacing Bobby Fish) & Kyle O’Reilly vs. Dominik Dijakovic & Keith Lee tag title match.

In quarter two, AEW lost 37,000 viewers over and 45,000 in 18-49 for Best Friends vs. Pentagon Jr. & Rey Fenix. NXT lost 53,000 viewers and 34,000 in 18-49 for the continuation of the tag team match. So this wasn’t people switching shows as much as people switching off.

In quarter three, AEW lost 34,000 viewers and 32,000 in 18-49 for Bea Priestley & Emi Sakura vs. Hikaru Shida & Kris Statlander. NXT lost 11,000 viewers and gained 23,000 in 18-49 for the finish of the tag title match and Mansoor vs. Shane Thorne. This was the first quarter that NXT has ever won in 18-49, by a 338,000 to 317,000 margin.

In quarter four, AEW lost 43,000 viewers and lost 10,000 in 18-49 for Cody vs. Matt Knicks and the debut of The Butcher & The Blade. This was not good because it was a Cody quarter. NXT lost 67,000 viewers and 39,000 in 18-49 for Dakota Kai vs. Candice LeRae, so AEW was ahead 307,000 to 299,000 in the key demo.

In quarter five, AEW gained 40,000 viewers and 18,000 in 18-49 for Kenny Omega vs. Pac. NXT gained 27,000 and 7,000 in 18-49 viewers for the end of Kai vs. LeRae, the post-match, and start of Lio Rush vs. Akira Tozawa.

In quarter six, AEW lost 6,000 viewers but gained 11,000 in 18-49 for Adam Page vs. MJF in the battle for the diamond ring. NXT lost 66,000 viewers and 28,000 in 18-49 for Rush vs. Tozawa.

In quarter seven, AEW lost 32,000 viewers and 31,000 in 18-49 for the Dustin Rhodes promo and the Inner Circle attack and Young Bucks save. NXT gained 26,000 viewers and 25,000 in 18-49 for Xia Li vs. Vanessa Borne. AEW had 305,000 viewers in 18-49 during the quarter with two commercial breaks while NXT had 303,000 with one commercial break.

In quarter eight, AEW gained 66,000 viewers and 28,000 in 18-49 for Jericho vs. Scorpio Sky while NXT lost 84,000 and 37,000 in 18-49 for the beginning of Balor vs. Ciampa.

In the overrun, NXT gained 151,000 viewers broken down as 4,000 teenage boys, 4,000 teenage girls, 9,000 18-34 women, 15,000 18-34 men, 13,000 35-49 women, 46,000 35-49 men and 55,000 over 50 men.

As far as the show itself and who it appealed to, NXT came out much stronger with teenagers but it reversed as the show went on. NXT won the first 45 minutes and AEW won the last 75 minutes. With women 18-34, NXT won the first 45 minutes and it reversed from there and the Omega-Pac and Jericho-Scorpio matches doubled NXT with that demo.

With teenage boys, and this was a bad one for AEW which usually dominates, NXT won the first 45 minutes and AEW won from there, with NXT doubling in quarter two and AEW doubling in the main event.

Page vs. MJF was the peak with 18-34 men blowing away everything on both shows.

Over 50 it wasn’t close, with NXT having a 504,000 to 293,000 edge in the first quarter and a 405,000 to 292,000 edge in the battle of main events.

AEW was down 25.8 percent from the prior week in viewers and even worse, 33.3 percent in 18-49. It was down across the boards, but took the biggest hits where they used to be the strongest, under 50. Perhaps the AEW audience went more heavily into DVR mode because of the night, but again, that should have affected non-live shows in comparison as much or worse besides a Hallmark special movie.

My thought going into Wednesday was that AEW was coming in flat even with the great build-up skit for the Chris Jericho vs. Scorpio Sky title match and a Kenny Omega vs. Pac match. NXT came in with Adam Cole, Rhea Ripley, Keith Lee and the brand itself hot, which hurt. AEW had a weak first hour, with the Jericho skit feeling like something out of WWE, and while NXT opened with a celebration, they quickly moved to a tag title match while AEW had nothing that appeared big until the second hour.

AEW did a 0.11 in 12-17 (down 31.3 percent), 0.16 in 18-34 (down 36.0 percent), 0.36 in 35-49 (down 36.8 percent), and 0.25 in 50+ (down 13.8 percent).

The audience was 63.5 percent male in 18-49 and 62.5 percent male in 12-17, so from a percentage basis in that regard, that was little change.

NXT was down 11.6 percent, staying steady in the over 50 age group and actually equaling AEW in the 35-49 demo, which AEW had been handily winning. The teenage audience was almost identical and AEW’s only winning group was 18-34.

NXT did a 0.10 in 12-17 (down 23.1 percent), 0.12 in 18-34 (down 36.8 percent), 0.36 in 35-49 (down 12.2 percent) and 0.40 in 50+ (staying the same as the prior week.

NXT viewers were 64.6 percent male in 18-49 and 71.8 percent male in 12-17.

The reality is that younger viewers were significantly down, especially those under 35 across the board, but NXT came closer to maintaining its 35-49 numbers while AEW did not.