Mafia talk 2/12/17

<Shroom> 8:38 PM rip two blues
<Pseudo> 8:39 PM well yellows
but yeah this is bad
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:39 PM We are screwed
This is very bad
<Shroom> 8:40 PM it was the worst thing that could happen but still we are not screwed
remember, we've got someone who's practically invincible because they're both immune and confirmed innocent
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:40 PM Yeah
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:40 PM we've still got this
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:40 PM Not all hope is lost
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:41 PM just gotta belieeeeeeeve
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:41 PM We will need to get leads though
<Pseudo> 8:41 PM yeah if the augur is dead alliance can't really happen though
except maybe with golem
gonna have to be more trust though
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:41 PM Hopefully the augur wasn't one of them
Pseudo - Today at 8:41 PM
yeah
if augur is still alive this can still be ez money
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:42 PM
In this case our plan is fucked
If the augur died
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:42 PM we can still be bizzarro
it'd be pretty nice if someone could get the golem to confirm to someone without looking horribly suspicious
the second someone being the same as the first someone
<Shroom> 8:46 PM well, apart from alliance-forming the Golem's ability isn't a big deal (after that he's pretty much a confirmed townie)
so he can reveal himself to anyone, even if they're scum
and if the person he reveals himself to doesn't speak
Golem can claim and push
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:47 PM but if he does claim to the enemy
then our method of forming an alliance is outta here
unless equally so is the augur still alive
we have two methods of confirming here
and i doubt we'd be so unlucky that both are gone night 1
<Shroom> 8:48 PM well, why is claiming to the enemy a problem?
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:48 PM if the golem claims to the enemy then the enemy can kill the golem that night
<Shroom> 8:49 PM that's why it all has to happen during the day
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:49 PM after that it means the golem can't claim to a potential yellow
eh???
<Pseudo> 8:49 PM yeah if the golem claims to mafia they're either going to be killed or worse, exploited then killed
golem should be careful
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:49 PM yeah definitely
let's hope the mafia is too dumb to exploit
<Pseudo> 8:49 PM yeah
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:49 PM maybe we could get like
a conduit somewhere
<Shroom> 8:50 PM well I've said that getting the golem killed wouldn't be worse than a normal townie being killed IN CASE the remaining two yellows are allied
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:50 PM obviously there's no way of confirming it, but...
it's terribly unlikely that yellows are allied right now
<Pseudo> 8:50 PM nah shroom cause the golem can still claim to suspected townies
after the yellows are together
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:50 PM for the golem to fuck up now would cause significant issues in putting the team together
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:50 PM I just hope the augur is alive, because if he is dead, forming an alliance will be hard as hell
<Pseudo> 8:50 PM if augur is dead, golem is our only hope
golem should not sacrifice itself unless absolutely necessary
<Shroom> 8:51 PM excuse me but I still don't get the use of his ability after revealing for the first time
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:51 PM Hopefully we aren't unlucky to the point where the golem tells his role to a villain
<Pseudo> 8:52 PM the golem can prove its role beyond any doubt
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:52 PM the golem can use its ability as many times as it wants
<Pseudo> 8:52 PM as long as it only targets good guys, it can make a big, confirmed alliance
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:52 PM that's how revealing to enemy would be a problem
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:52 PM Only the acolyte should claim
<Pseudo> 8:52 PM ^
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:52 PM aye
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:53 PM If the medic is dead, any non immune yellow that claims WILL die
<Pseudo> 8:53 PM the golem should work behind the scenes, role should be unknown to anyone who hasn't been golemed
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:53 PM of course this is all under the assumption that the augur is even dead
<Pseudo> 8:53 PM ya
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:53 PM i think it's worth taking the risk
<Shroom> 8:53 PM then how can the golem find people who aren't scum
if he works behind the scenes
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:54 PM If the augur survived the plan continues
<Pseudo> 8:54 PM if golem publicly claims it ruins the whole point of the role
golem should contact people it trusts
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:54 PM if acolyte claims publicly, we could get lucky and the guard is still alive to protect
<Thehelmetguy1> 8:54 PM But do we wanna take this risk?
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:55 PM then if no one dies that night, the guard can contact the acolyte
equally so can the potentially alive golem contact
and then through the acolyte, that's three units together
what i'm saying is
1) Acolyte claims now
2) Today, Golem reveals to Acolyte
3) Tonight, Guard protects Acolyte
4) The next day, Guard contacts Acolyte
counterclaims could be an issue
but maybe the mafia won't take that risk
<Pseudo> 8:56 PM guard need not protect acolyte, acolyte is immune to night kills
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:57 PM oh shit you're right
then uh
what would the guard do in that case
<Pseudo> 8:57 PM idk
may be dead anyways
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:57 PM yeah that's true
<Pseudo> 8:57 PM but should try to contact golem/acolyte in general
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:57 PM but as it is we have no way of knowing who is alive
<Pseudo> 8:57 PM /augur
yeah
<Shroom> 8:58 PM and what do we do if the GOLEM is dead
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:58 PM rely on the augur
<Pseudo> 8:58 PM it's highly improbable that both golem and augur are dead
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:58 PM and if they're BOTH dead?
well
we just look for suspicious activity
<Pseudo> 8:58 PM not impossible, but we can sort of assume one is alive
<Megyro Zeppeli> 8:58 PM if they're both dead, a yellow alliance is nigh impossible to form
<Shroom> 8:59 PM there's a 1/6 chance that they're both dead, and that's the worst case scenario
<Megyro Zeppeli> 9:01 PM i forget how probability works
but i'm pretty sure
it's way lower than that
<Pseudo> 9:02 PM wait so like
3/5 yellows are left
uh
idk
<Shroom> 9:06 PM 2/4 yellows are left because Acolyte is alive
and 4 choose 2 = 6
<Thehelmetguy1> 9:07 PM Possibilities:(I will use numbers because it is easier)
1 and 2 died
1 and 3 died
1 and 4 died
2 and 3 died
2 and 4 died
3 and 4 died
So yeah, the chance that both the augur and the golem are dead is 1 in 6 as shroom said
We can't be that unlucky
<Megyro Zeppeli> 9:08 PM uh
there are five yellows
<Shroom> 9:10 PM and again we can ignore the Acolyte because we know them to be alive
if the Acolyte wasn't immune, the probability of "Golem+Augur dead" would be 1/10th
<Megyro Zeppeli> 9:10 PM oh right
keep forgetting the immunity thing