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- ### Likelihood of getting 3 heads out of 8 flips given a fair coin
- n = 8
- k = 3
- steps = 10001 # Non zero ending to get likelihood; best if > 10000
- p_grid = seq(0,1,length.out = steps)
- prior = rep(1, steps)
- likelihood = dbinom(k, n, prob = p_grid)
- # unstd.posterior = likelihood*prior
- # posterior = unstd.posterior/sum(unstd.posterior)
- # plot(p_grid, posterior)
- plot(p_grid, likelihood)
- abline(v = .5, col = "red")
- gridFind = cbind(p_grid, likelihood)
- findProb = .5
- gridFind[which(abs(p_grid - findProb) == min(abs(p_grid - findProb))),]
- # .2187 likelihood
- # Combinations of 3 heads in 8 flips out of 2^n flips
- (factorial(n)/(factorial(k)*factorial(n - k))) / ( 2 ^ n )
- # 0.21875 likelihood
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