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electoral college

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May 12th, 2017
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  1. Electoral college vote weighting by state was not
  2. responsible for the difference between the popular
  3. vote and then electoral college marigins.
  4. The difference was due to variance induced by
  5. all-or-nothing state point allocations.
  6.  
  7. State ECVotes %Trump %Clint Vote Allocation
  8. Alaska (3) 3 37.6 23 1.128 0.69
  9. Alabama (9) 9 34.6 62.9 3.114 5.661
  10. Arkansas (6) 6 33.8 60.4 2.028 3.624
  11. Arizona (11) 11 45.3 49.6 4.983 5.456
  12. California (55) 55 61.5 33.2 33.825 18.26
  13. Colorado (9) 9 46.9 44.8 4.221 4.032
  14. Connecticut (7) 7 53.9 41.7 3.773 2.919
  15. DC 3 92.8 4.1 2.7 0.123
  16. Delaware (3) 3 53.4 41.9 1.602 1.257
  17. Florida (29) 29 47.8 49.1 13.862 14.239
  18. Georgia (16) 16 45.6 51.3 7.296 8.208
  19. Hawaii (4) 4 62.2 30 2.488 1.2
  20. Iowa (6) 6 42.2 51.8 2.532 3.108
  21. Idaho (4) 4 27.6 59.2 1.104 2.368
  22. Illinois (20) 20 55.4 39.4 11.08 7.88
  23. Indiana (11) 11 37.9 57.2 4.169 6.292
  24. Kansas (6) 6 36.2 57.2 2.172 3.432
  25. Kentucky (8) 8 32.7 62.5 2.616 5
  26. Louisiana (8) 8 38.4 58.1 3.072 4.648
  27. Massachusetts (11) 11 60.8 33.5 6.688 3.685
  28. Maryland (10) 10 60.5 35.3 6.05 3.53
  29. Maine At Large (2) 2 47.8 45.1 0.956 0.902
  30. Maine District 1 1 53.9 39.5 0.539 0.395
  31. Maine District 2 1 41.1 51.5 0.411 0.515
  32. Michigan (16) 16 47.3 47.6 7.568 7.616
  33. Minnesota (10) 10 46.8 54.4 4.68 5.44
  34. Missouri (10) 10 38 57.1 3.8 5.71
  35. Mississippi (6) 6 39.8 58.3 2.388 3.498
  36. Montana (3) 3 36 56.5 1.08 1.695
  37. North Carolina (15) 15 46.7 50.5 7.005 7.575
  38. North Dakota (3) 3 27.8 64.1 0.834 1.923
  39. Nebraska (4) 4 34 60.3 1.36 2.412
  40. Nebraska District 2 1 45.4 48.8 0.454 0.488
  41. New Hampshire (4) 4 47.5 47.3 1.9 1.892
  42. New Jersey (14) 14 54.8 42 7.672 5.88
  43. New Mexico (5) 5 48.3 40 2.415 2
  44. Nevada (6) 6 47.9 45.5 2.874 2.73
  45. New York (29) 29 58.8 37.5 17.052 10.875
  46. Ohio (18) 18 43.5 52.1 7.83 9.378
  47. Oklahoma (7) 7 28.9 65.3 2.023 4.571
  48. Oregon (7) 7 51.7 41.1 3.619 2.877
  49. Pennsylvania (20) 20 47.6 48.8 9.52 9.76
  50. Rhode Island (4) 4 54.9 40.3 2.196 1.612
  51. South Carolina (9) 9 40.8 54.9 3.672 4.941
  52. South Dakota (3) 3 31.7 61.5 0.951 1.845
  53. Tennessee (11) 11 34.9 61.1 3.839 6.721
  54. Texas (38) 38 43.4 52.7 16.492 20.026
  55. Utah (6) 6 24.8 46.8 1.488 2.808
  56. Virginia (13) 13 49.9 45 6.487 5.85
  57. Vermont (3) 3 61.1 32.6 1.833 0.978
  58. Washington (12) 12 56.2 37.9 6.744 4.548
  59. Wisconsin (10) 10 46.9 47.9 4.69 4.79
  60. West Virginia (5) 5 26.5 68.7 1.325 3.435
  61. Wyoming (3) 3 22.5 70.1 0.675 2.103
  62. Total 256.959 253.401
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