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Elrevolver

Pokemon Crystal Manipless Encounter chance up to Falkner

Elrevolver
Mar 19th, 2025 (edited)
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  1. Chance for Encounters up to Falkner in Pokémon Crystal Manipless
  2.  
  3. Encounters Chance Sum
  4.  
  5. 0 2,92503E-06 2,92503E-06
  6. 1 5,09471E-05 5,38721E-05
  7. 2 0,000421687 0,000475559
  8. 3 0,00220738 0,002682939
  9. 4 0,008204991 0,010887929
  10. 5 0,023052117 0,033940046
  11. 6 0,050878491 0,084818538
  12. 7 0,0905211 0,175339638
  13. 8 0,132194162 0,3075338
  14. 9 0,160542197 0,468075997
  15. 10 0,163692036 0,631768033
  16. 11 0,14111164 0,772879673
  17. 12 0,103367322 0,876246995
  18. 13 0,064566421 0,940813416
  19. 14 0,034466923 0,975280339
  20. 15 0,015742603 0,991022941
  21. 16 0,006153621 0,997176562
  22. 17 0,002057331 0,999233893
  23. 18 0,000587489 0,999821382
  24. 19 0,000142988 0,99996437
  25. 20 2,95783E-05 0,999993948
  26. 21 5,1817E-06 0,99999913
  27. 22 7,65467E-07 0,999999895
  28. 23 9,48695E-08 0,99999999
  29. 24 9,80624E-09 1
  30. 25 8,39644E-10 1
  31. 26 5,90902E-11 1
  32. 27 3,38756E-12 1
  33. 28 1,56586E-13 1
  34. 29 5,76683E-15 1
  35. 30 1,66842E-16 1
  36. 31 3,72707E-18 1
  37. 32 6,2893E-20 1
  38. 33 7,78429E-22 1
  39. 34 6,77375E-24 1
  40. 35 3,87732E-26 1
  41. 36 1,29467E-28 1
  42. 37 1,88972 E-31 1
  43.  
  44. Average 9,731988215
  45.  
  46.  
  47.  
  48. Some stuff I used to calculate These numbers
  49. I assumed that the Chance of encountering a Pokemon is 25/256 per step and after every Encounter you get 4 steps of Encounter immunity.
  50. I divided the Path into 11 Disconnected* Patches of grass. *Disconnected means, more than 4 steps apart (assuming movement that minimizes encouter tiles)
  51.  
  52. for These Patches I got:
  53.  
  54.  
  55. Patch 1 Patch 2 Patch 3 Patch 7 Patch 4 Patch 5 Patch 8 Patch 6 Patch 9 Patch 10 Patch 11
  56. Tiles 11 7 6 3 7 6 3 9* 9 9 8*/9*
  57. Max Encounters 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 3
  58. Encounterless 0,32291793 0,487084267 0,539799015 0,734710157 0,487084267 0,539799015 0,734710157 0,396595819 0,396595819 0,396595819 0,439517444
  59. 1 Encounter 0,533169569 0,486168149 0,450664242 0,265289843 0,486168149 0,450664242 0,265289843 0,454900891 0,525334486 0,525334486 0,491405538
  60. 2 Encounter 0,142981178 0,026747584 0,009536743 0,026747584 0,009536743 0,137153808 0,078069695 0,078069695 0,068145695
  61. 3 Encounter 0,000931323 0,011349482 0,000931323
  62. Average 0,821925892 0,539663317 0,469737728 0,265289843 0,539663317 0,469737728 0,265289843 0,763256953 0,681473876 0,681473876 0,630490896
  63.  
  64. Patch 1, Patch 2 and Patch 3 are the grass Patches of R29, 4,5 and 6 are the Patches you have to pass on R30 to get to Mr Pokemon.
  65. 7,8 and 9 are the remaining Patches on R30 Right before and after Fighting Mickey.
  66. 10 and 11 are the final Patches before violet.
  67. Average is additiv. For example: The Average amount of Encounters from the start until Mr Pokemon is 0,821925892+0,539663317+0,469737728+0,539663317+0,469737728+0,763256953=3,603984935 (Sum of averages from Patch 1 to 6).
  68.  
  69. Mostly useless Information, but might be interesting for some :)
  70.  
  71. R32 stuff ^-^
  72.  
  73. 4 different ways to go through the route:
  74. Bottom repel, Leftside
  75. Bottom Repel, Rightside
  76. Top Repel, Leftside
  77. Top Repel, Rightside
  78.  
  79. fastest possible route is getting repel from the top and taking the left path
  80. lowest encounter chance is bottom repel and rightside (Spinner pass!!!)
  81.  
  82. Likely optimal to change approach based on pace/Encounters.
  83. Getting the super potion for safety in exchange for extra spinner pass can be a factor as well.
  84.  
  85. Patch 1,2b,3L,4
  86. Encounters Chance Sum
  87. 0 0,030384248 0,030384248
  88. 1 0,144399591 0,17478384
  89. 2 0,282393044 0,457176883
  90. 3 0,293897647 0,751074531
  91. 4 0,175666144 0,926740675
  92. 5 0,060655807 0,987396482
  93. 6 0,011521441 0,998917923
  94. 7 0,001050162 0,999968085
  95. 8 3,16183E-05 0,999999703
  96. 9 2,96701E-07 1
  97.  
  98. Average 2,673557631
  99.  
  100.  
  101. Patch 1,2b,3R
  102. Encounters Chance Sum
  103. 0 0,094092788 0,094092788
  104. 1 0,291814642 0,38590743
  105. 2 0,34965093 0,73555836
  106. 3 0,20170208 0,937260439
  107. 4 0,056249815 0,993510254
  108. 5 0,006375781 0,999886035
  109. 6 0,000113965 1
  110.  
  111. Average 1,853784694
  112.  
  113.  
  114. Patch 1, 2t,3L,4
  115. Encounters Chance sum
  116. 0 0,024739592 0,024739592
  117. 1 0,125650879 0,15039047
  118. 2 0,263954148 0,414344618
  119. 3 0,297130874 0,711475492
  120. 4 0,194393824 0,905869316
  121. 5 0,075201536 0,981070852
  122. 6 0,016804958 0,99787581
  123. 7 0,002014413 0,999890222
  124. 8 0,000108221 0,999998443
  125. 9 1,5569E-06 1
  126.  
  127. Average 2,814345185
  128.  
  129.  
  130. Patch 1,2t,3R
  131. Encounters Chance sum
  132. 0 0,06237986 0,06237986
  133. 1 0,23419457 0,29657443
  134. 2 0,34214159 0,638716019
  135. 3 0,248123944 0,886839964
  136. 4 0,094097126 0,98093709
  137. 5 0,017752196 0,998689285
  138. 6 0,001310715 1
  139.  
  140. Average 2,135863352
  141.  
  142.  
  143. Overall average Encounters Start to Union cave is between 11,58577291 and 12,5463334 depending on R32 strat.
  144.  
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