ks112

Confirmed, we have been reducing Canadian exposure for years now in both residential and commercial.


1. is not true, there is no guarantee of future appreciation, for anyone owning an investment property the decision of cashing out now or waiting to potentially make more money is real. This will especially be true if the market begins to soften, I had the exact issue in 2018/19 and was considering on selling. In fact there were numerous posts on this forum of “bag holder” sales that were made during that time. 3, demand is so high currently but again once it slows down then it will be a different story. 5. overpopulation, this must be a recent thing because no one was talking about this during 2019 when the market was slowing and i doubt we had that much of an increase since.
2.



My perspective is that rents will be at where the market will bear, but the market will bear more of an increase if the minimum wages are increased.


Leo, any thoughts on the rise in minimum wage (33 percent in the last 4 years) contributing to rising rents which also attributes to rising home prices. I mean people are making 18-20 bucks an hour working at subway and Tim Hortons now after accounting for tips.


I would never put a coin operated in my suite, i view the landlord-tenant relationship as one that is more mutually beneficial. If you give out the impression that you are trying to extract every dime out of the tenants, you are likely going to have more problems.


What kind of cheap ass landlord has coin operated laundry in their basement suite?? This gives good landlords a bad name.


Grace,
what we are talking about is vice versa from your situation. I think a person whom is used to Victoria will probably find Qualicum quite boring.
Given the price point of Victoria cost of living, the people whom do retire here usually are fairly financially well off. They most likely made their money in a much larger city and will be used to luxuries and amenities that are simply not available here in Victoria.


I am simply summarizing by what’s been said here and it goes as follows:


Bulls – Everyone in Canada wants to move to Victoria for retirement, so always will be crazy demand for homes here.


Facts – Most out of towner Canadians that buy homes in Victoria are from Alberta and Vancouver.


I just think the folks that live here are a little biased about how attractive Victoria really is. Victoria is great don’t get me wrong, but I can definitely see someone who’s used to a big city get instantly bored retiring here. I have been lucky enough and travelled to quite a few metropolitan city in the world and man just the lack of good dining choices alone in Victoria will prob make lots of folks think twice. For example, to get proper omakase sushi or any premium grade/cuts of steak you would need to travel to Vancouver.


Most of the people I have come across from larger cities loves visiting Victoria but would never live here permanently. But who knows maybe they’ll just buy a home here and leave it vacant for most of the year.


Ok so with all the comments on the issue then I guess it’s safe to say that the argument bulls make about how Victoria is THE place for retirement is false. It’s mainly the Albertans that want to come. Vancouverites will come only if a significant arbitrage opportunity exists.


What about the people from Toronto? They are not cashing in their homes and buying here like the Vancouver folks?


Well in that case then I guess the narrative of Victoria is appealing to all Canadians should be modified to Victoria mostly appeals to Vancouver and Alberta residents.


Whats the fascination with only Vancouver and Alberta buyers? Why not Saskatchewan, Manitoba or Ontario buyers? I thought Victoria is THE place where everyone in Canada wants to live?
If u want to capture how Victoria real estate doesn’t correlate to local incomes then u would want to cover as many external factors as possible.




Barrister,
I am confused, isn’t the whole point of retirement where you stop working (this having an income) and live off of what pension and savings you have accumulated in your working life?


Barrister, they have the house paid for and has 40k a year on top of OAS and and CPP, I think they are living just fine.
As for as deposit protection, I believe any BC credit union has unlimited protection for your deposit, not like a schedule A bank where u are only protected to 100k




I think the more interesting question would be how many forced sellers will be required in order to have a > ~7% correction annually? Because technically if you are not a forced seller then you don’t have to accept a lower price than what you have listed.


Ok gotcha! But ya I agree with the advice Barrister gave, if homes here are too expensive for what you make @ your chosen occupation then there are several choices:
-Get a second job (legal)
-Get as many tenants/roommates as you possibly could (assume you have the down payment and can get financing)
-Get a second job (illegal)
-Find partner whom already has a home or has the means to purchase a home when combined with your income
-Pray for an unlikely >25% correction
-Move




Lol how do we know Josh is a renter now ? I mean, if I had to bet then I would probably also bet that he is but I am wondering how you came up with that (other than his obvious disgust towards high home prices)?
As far as driving up housing costs in Victoria, I would say the hardworking FOMO folks that bought in the last 3 years had just as big of hand in it as the speculators…
@ local fool
I am waiting for the bulls to jump on you for mentioning the word “cycle” when referring to real estate 🙂 Oh wait, even Patrick has agreed to the concept of real estate cycles!!!


Totoro, that is a cherry picked 7 years, you could have picked 2007 to 2014 which would show a different result. I would circle back to Leo’s affordability chart as that seems to be the best indicator of how local prices, incomes and interest rates behave together over time.




Don’t agree with that, you can be underwater and still rent the place out and make your mortgage payments if you move somewhere else for a new job. You may not be cashflow neutral or positive but I don’t think the economics are that terrible provided the rental market is still in tact. You have a paper loss in the same manner as the paper gains everyone who bough before 2021 currently have, doesn’t mean much until you cash out.
Unless you are talking about not being able to buy another house if you move because you don’t want to sell at a loss on the current house?




All I am just saying is that worker bees in private sector trades aren’t paid as much as “Umm really” thinks where they can all afford SFH currently, majority of trades workers working in the private sector won’t become successful entrepreneurs, so they look around and think well maybe I should work for the public sector where the wage are similar but better job security, benefits, vacation and DB pension.
Vic Landord, do you think it is likely that a carpenter (none owner) working on a project for Expansion Properties would turn down a trades job from say the City of Victoria?
In bigger cities, private sector trades could provide a better career path because of large companies like PCL, Ledcor, Graham etc. but Victoria there aren’t that many large players and career paths at smaller shops are limited so I think most worker bees are attracted to the public sector (work the 35 hours and maybe do some cash jobs on the side)


Why is it so confusing? Prices dropped from late 2017 until early/mid 2019, Leo already made a chart on that already.






How the hell do they even know what your house looks like on the inside or what the lay out is?
Marko, do you every ask your clients why they are buying now instead of last summer or anytime in the previous 2.5 years? Why now?


I know some people in trades and I don’t think the worker bees are getting that much $, maybe 35 bucks to 40 bucks an hour after trade ticket with no pension and probably minimal benefits. Most try to get into public sector trades work (i.e. the city, BC transit, BC Ferries, etc.)




Newhomeowner, I think median/average income is useless now when talking about detached home prices. It is about the absolute number of people with high income jobs here versus the absolute number of SFH’s and one of those numbers is static.
I would caution that sentiment changes pretty fast, just go look back at the posts in late 2018/early 2019 on this forum. no one was scared of getting priced out and everyone was posting examples of bag holders that bought in 2017.


went to a couple of fast food places this weekend for some treats, lol inflation is definitely very apparent there.


Cadbro, have you or your partner been actively trying to look for better paying jobs or additional sources of income? I understand that is hard with kids but hustling to get ahead is a must in a capitalistic society.


Jeremy, more higher income people have come to Victoria and that has pushed prices higher even though the average income may not show it. Because the SFH supply is fixed, the prices have to go up. If say Victoria’s current average income is 70k and a 100 new people move here with 20 of them making 150k while the rest make 50k,
then the average income of all these new people is still 70k, so on paper this doesn’t affect the average income in town but in reality there are now 20 additional higher earners in the market that can outbid the average income person for that fixed SFH supply.
Then you got CIBC doing these types of mortgage promotions…..
Marko, I thought you would have preferred that two unit connected penthouse at Bayview instead??


JS, I would just buy a one bedroom if u don’t get a roommate assuming you don’t need the space. See Marko’s prior posts, one bedroom condos provides much better flexibility and returns if you end up trying to rent it out later.


I don’t think everyone in banking over 40 is above 150k or 200k. Victoria banking is limited to retail and lower level commercial banking. Only people over 200k are the market/area VPs and there is probably one per bank. Senior managers doing commercial banking is probably around 135k after bonus in Victoria and retail banking is lower. There are numerous investment advisors making over 200k though but that’s much more like running your business.