1/22/24 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

1/19/24-1/22/24 Update, day 695-698 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Per UA, Belarus is simply used as a distraction, and there is no observed threat.

Per UA, 60% of RU intel ops occur via public social media rather then individual agents.

Romanian farmers ended their blockade at the UA border.


Kyiv/ Central Ukraine:

Polish PM Donald Tusk visited Kyiv for a reportedly productive meeting, with a defensive package expected to be announced in the near future. UA proposed a regulatory system for outgoing agricultural shipments through Poland, in line with existing structures used in Romania and Bulgaria.

UA mobilization efforts remain unclear at this time, as Zelensky and the Rada seem unwilling to commit to the new 500,000 mobilization number.

Zelensky invited Donald Trump to UA, stating "If you can stop the war in 24 hours, you can come to Kyiv any day I'm here."

UA Pm denys Shmyhal stated that UA is willing to serve as a "gas safe" for europe and expand current storage agreements from 2.5 > 10 billion cubic meters.

UA and German NGO Sequa are implementing a free jobs training program for veterans and immigrants. The certifications will focus on infrastructure maintenance, such as welding, electricians, and commercial drivers/mechanics.

UA investigative journalism paper Bihus has determined that someone bugged their employees hotel rooms and public sauna, in a journalism suppression case that has already prompted UA government condemnation.

UA has raised $464,000 USD for construction of more permanent fortifications at the front line, as they shift to a more defensive footing.

UA reported that 135 medical facilities in the Kyiv region were damaged or destroyed since the war began.

US and UA inspectors audited a supply of weaponry and equipment provided to UA thus far.

Zelensky submitted a law to Parliament which would provide for dual citizenship of Ukrainian citizens.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city region:

UA drones attacked an RU oil depot in Bryansk, causing a significant fire.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv/Kreminna:

RU has increased their volume of assaults towards Lyman and Kupyansk, and is carrying out large scale offensives. 21 assaults towards Kupuyansk and 15 towards Lyman were reported in a single day, as RU used 30 kamikaze drones and 21 airstrikes.

RU is emphasizing assaults towards Lyman these days, compared to other sectors of the front.

Over the day, RU lost 13 tanks and 17 APCs, as well as 250 soldiers.

RU is reportedly integrating more armored vehicles in their "meat assaults" towards Lyman, with the RU 20th Motorized Rifle Regiment apparently expending the bulk of its resources here.

Since the beginning of January, 120 tanks, 218 BMPs, 178 artillery systems have been destroyed along with 7,055 RU casualties in the Kupyansk region.

RU has apparently made gains SE of Kupyansk along the main highway, near Krokhmalne. RU is apparently seeking to clear the SE Zherebets river valley area.
UA claims that their forces withdrew to more prepared defensive lines, stating that the "several hundred meters of already destroyed village were not significant"

A UA National Guardsman reportedly killed an old woman and her daughter, and 2 responding policemen in Lyman. The accused was detained.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU attempted a breakout from Bakhmut, but failed and lost 5 APC and 2 T-72 tanks in a single assault.

It is noted that while the situation around bakhmut remains challenging, RU has reduced its offensive posture here.

Over the last week, RU has increased shelling by 27% and has seen its losses of equipment increase by 88%, the loss of tanks by 95%, and reported casualties increase by 15%.


Avdiivka:

RU maintains approximately 40,000 troops around Avdiivka.

RU continues assaults towards Avdiivka and the surrounding area, with gains reported to the SE of the city as RU seeks to enter the suburban residential area.

RU additionally has tried to cut off the "Zenit" position SW of avdiivka, a heavily reinforced concrete soviet-era air defense site located on high ground. RU was unsuccessful in the attempt, but claimed to have taken the site anyway.

Reportedly RU forces attempted to cut off parts of SE Avdiivka by crawling 150 soldiers through a 0.8m/2.6 ft diameter pipe, emerging behind UA defensive positions near the Tsarska Ohota restaurant (used as a UA defensive position) immediately before the SE suburbs. UA drone strikes were recorded on the area, and  its unclear whether RU was able to hold the territory.



1000 people remain in avdiivka, with <10 evacuated per day. There are approximately 40 barrages in the city per day, and the main road into the city is under constant shelling.

Humanitarian aid has broadly stopped coming in, as UA had built a several month stockpile prior to the latest RU incursion.



Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

27 people were killed and 25 wounded when a missile struck a downtown market. UA denies involvement, and RU is demanding a UN meeting.

RU continues to shell frontline towns with S-300 missiles in the Donetsk region, damaging a number of schools and apartment buildings.

RU launched 7 Shahed drones from Luhansk overnight, with 4 being physically intercepted and 3 reportedly "not reaching their targets".


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU is noted to be moving additional forces around Mariupol as they build new training bases. These bases are reportedly protected by a trio of constant helicopter patrols around Mariupol.

RU conducts 1-2 assaults across the whole southern front, instead more consistently using mortars and drones.

RU is reportedly recruiting retired pensioners in Zaporizhia to spread propaganda and report on any anti-RU activity.

RU continues to emplace minefields around the ZNPP.


Kherson:

SW Ukraine intercepted 8 Shahed UAV's overnight.

RU continues to shell into Kherson oblast and city, causing civilian casualties. There is no observed change at Krynky.

RU skilled drone operator Moses was killed around Krynky. He had been responsible for several hundred drone ops, and his last post before being killed was discussing the miserable situation around Krynky.

RU has intensified its usage of artillery and drones towards the UA Naval base at Ochakiv.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:


UA claimed that they are targeting the RU energy grid in Crimea, which has experienced localized blackouts as of lately.

UA Atesh partisans in Crimea determined the location and resupply routes for the Onyx anti-ship missiles which were used in bombarding UA. These supersonic missiles are highly difficult to intercept once fired. They additionally identified an RU repair depot for T-62, noting the increased RU vehicle losses.

Atesh further located an RU military recruitment/training point in Sevastapol.

Atesh additionally confirmed the past sinking of an RU Tarantul Patrol ship, which had been sunken in late december.

RU retains a single frigate with 8 Kalibr missiles out of harbor in the black sea.

Bulgaria stated that the joint Romanian-Bulgarian-Turkish demining operation in the Black sea may become operational in April, pending Turkish ratification.

The son of a Lviv businessman who is accused of a multi-million corruption scheme in providing poor quality gear to the ZSU was arrested in Odesa, allegedly preparing to skip the country.

Moldova is reportedly increasing duty taxes on Transnistrian businesses, as they seek to economically pressure the RU-controlled enclave. Moldova additionally has lodged complaints regarding recent Transnistrian military exercises.


Russia:

UA drones attacked an RU factory and gas plant near the Baltic sea, causing massive fires. Additional long range drones attacked Tula, Smolensk, and Oryol manufacturing sites for such things as AA Pantsir systems.

A coal terminal at a Leningrad port is on fire.

RU has resumed A-50u flights over Krasnodar, further than the shootdown site, as they seek to bolster their long range radar capabilities while minimizing risk.

RU has reportedly completed prototypes of a cheaper domestically produced Shahed variant, with a range of 350 km.

RU stated that the NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 training exercise, taking 90,000 soldiers from 32 countries, is a provocation. The exercise will run in Europe until May.

Pro-RU hackers successfully penetrated Microsoft corporate email servers. A massive DDoS attack on the UA Monobank server (a very popular mobile banking service) was successfully dealt with.

At least 12 RU strategic bombers have taken off, and missile strikes across UA are expected tonight.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 9 airstrikes and RU forces 102 air strikes (including drones) and 4 missile strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
830x troops (376,860 in total)
23x APC
11x Tank
2x Air defense
21x Artillery (1x MLRS)
0x Aircraft
29x vehicles
25x UAV


Overseas:

Per the UA air force, UA pilots are already amassing flight hours alongside instructors in F-16s.

Slovakian PM Robert Fico stated his opposition to UA membership in NATO, and that UA can only end the war by ceding territory to RU. The Slovakian Ministry of Culture resumed cooperation with RU and Belarus. UA's Minister of Foreign affairs rejected this, stating any compromise on territorial integrity was impossible.

Fico will meet with UA PM Denys Shmyal this week, and is expected to announce humanitarian aid and the cancellation of direct military aid.

210k UA refugees have arrived in Canada thus far  under the emergency travel authorization program. 1.2 million people have applied for this visa, with 936,000 currently approved. Current visa holders have until April to come to Canada to take advantage of the program.

French President Macron urged the french defense industry to increase production, stating that "Russias victory will mean the end of European security".

The EU has proposed a 20 Billion Euro plan over the next 4 years, compensating EU countries for providing supplies and training to UA.

There are strikes planned in Finland at an ammunition plant over the next few days, as part of a broader labor strike in Finland.

UA tennis player Marta Kostiuk defeated Russias MAria Timofeeva to advance in the Australian Open tournament, the first time 3 UA players have made it into the semifinals.