LEAK - STRATFOR Zaman Cihan Energy Report (GIFILES)

Re: Greetings from Washington, DC
Email ID: 92057
Date: 2010-03-08 09:50:51
From: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To: b.kenes@todayszaman.com


Mr. Kenes,
My schedule changed again, and it looks like I will be available to meet
you at 3pm today. I will also have my assistant, Emre Dogru, with me.
Looking forward to meeting you.
Best,
Reva

Sent from my iPhone
On Mar 7, 2010, at 5:19 PM, BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
wrote:

Dear Miss. Bhalla,



I will be at the office at 3 pm on Monday. It will be a great pleasure
for me to have a cup of coffee with youa*|



If it is suitable for you, please confirm that you will visit our
officea*|



Best,

BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Today's Zaman


Editor-in-Chief

Tel (212)
Faks (212)
E-posta b.kenes@todayszaman.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:32 PM
To: BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Subject: Greetings from Washington, DC



Dear Mr. Kenes,



I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as an
analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week and
he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a while
and your publication does very important work. It would be great to sit
down and chat with you if you have some time.



All the best,



Reva Bhalla

Director of Analysis

STRATFOR

www.stratfor.com

Director of Analysis

Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America

+1 (512) 699-8385




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Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today
Email ID: 92666
Date: 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From: bhalla@stratfor.com
To: A.Bilici@cihan.com.tr

Dear Hamit,
It was delightful to meet you today. Thank you again for taking the time
and for being so open. I learned a lot from our meeting, and it is my hope
that we can continue a cooperative dialogue. Will be in touch soon.
All the best,
Reva
----- Original Message -----
From: "Abdulhamit Bilici"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Sent: Monday, March 8, 2010 4:53:15 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today

Dear Reva Bhalla,
If it is ok for you, we can chat together.
best regards
hamit

On 08.Mar.2010, at 12:34, Reva Bhalla wrote:

Dear Mr. Bilici,
I will be meeting your colleague from Today's Zaman, Bulent Kenes, today
at your main office at 3pm. If you are available any time after that, I
would love to meet you while I am there.
Best,
Reva Bhalla
Director of Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
Director of Analysis
Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
+1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
On Mar 6, 2010, at 11:30 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

Dear Mr. Bilici,
I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as
an analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week
and he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a
while and your publication does very important work. It would be great
to sit down and chat with you if you have some time.
All the best,
Reva Bhalla
Director of Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
Director of Analysis
Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
+1 (512) 699-8385

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YASAL UYARI: Bu e-posta'nA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgiler (ekleri de dahil
olmak A 1/4zere) gizlidir. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-'nA:+-n onayA:+-
olmaksA:+-zA:+-n iAS:eriA:*i kopyalanamaz, A 1/4AS:A 1/4ncA 1/4 kiAA*ilere
aAS:A:+-klanamaz veya iletilemez . Bu mesajA:+-n gAP:nderilmek istendiA:*i
kiAA*i deA:*ilseniz (ya da bu e-postaa**yA:+- yanlA:+-AA*lA:+-kla
aldA:+-ysanA:+-z), lA 1/4tfen yollayan kiAA*iyi haberdar ediniz ve
mesajA:+- sisteminizden derhal siliniz. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-, bu
mesajA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgilerin doA:*ruluA:*u veya eksiksiz olduA:*u
konusunda bir garanti vermemektedir. Bu nedenle, bilgilerin ne AA*ekilde
olursa olsun iAS:eriA:*inden, iletilmesinden, alA:+-nmasA:+-ndan,
saklanmasA:+-ndan Cihan Haber AjansA:+- sorumlu deA:*ildir. Bu mesajA:+-n
iAS:eriA:*i yazarA:+-na ait olup, Cihan Haber AjansA:+- 'nA:+-n gAP:rA
1/4AA*lerini iAS:ermeyebilir. Bu e-posta bizce bilinen tA 1/4m bilgisayar
virA 1/4slerine karsA:+- taranmA:+-AA*tA:+-r.

DISCLAIMER: This e-mail (including any attachments) may contain
confidential and/or privileged information. Copying, disclosure or
distribution of the material in this e-mail without our Cihan News
Agencya**s authority is strictly forbidden. If you are not the intended
recipient (or have received this e-mail in error), please notify the
sender immediately. Cihan News Agency makes
no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information
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reflect the opinions of Cihan News Agency. This e-mail has been scanned
for all computer viruses known to us.




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Turkey update
Email ID: 221408
Date: 2010-09-02 14:24:58
From: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To: gfriedman@stratfor.com, bokhari@stratfor.com, emre.dogru@stratfor.com

Response from Ali Aslan from Zaman included below. He wants to meet with
George and have us publish a "clarification" op-ed on our web site before
they publish it in their newspapers..
George, how would you like to proceed? This guy is based in DC.

Sent from my iPhone
Begin forwarded message:

From: "Ali Aslan"
Date: September 2, 2010 7:33:30 AM EDT
To: "'Reva Bhalla'"
Subject: RE: Request

Dear Reva,
I'm writing this letter after my consultations with top editors of Zaman
and
Today's Zaman on how to pursue with Dr. Friedman's request. I
understand your representative in Turkey has also approached Zaman.
We appreciate Dr. Friedman's interest in writing an Op-Ed for us. In
principle, there should be no problem with that. But we think Zaman
should
not be the first avenue for such a clarification. The priority should be
given to Stratfor subscribers and other audience in the West who have
been
immensely misled with your report. They deserve a clarification and
hopefully a correction more than our audience in Turkey. We might always
republish Mr. Friedman's piece after it appears in your website and
circulated to your subscribers, provided that it meets our editorial
policy
standards.
My editors are taking this issue very seriously; hence they have
encouraged
me to meet with Dr. Friedman personally to convey some of our concerns
with
the report. We believe such a dialogue could help Mr. Friedman better
understand our position and kindly address them in his clarification,
setting the tone for future Stratfor reports which would strike the
right
balance. Please let me know if you can facilitate such a meeting or
advise
me how to proceed with this request.
Your report depicts Turkey divided into secularist and Islamist camps
and
you clearly put our newspaper in the latter category -which we strongly
reject- since you have labeled Zaman 'Gulenist' and in your eyes Gulen
movement is 'Islamist'. It's a gross injustice. Our newspaper and
readership
body may even suffer from legal implications both in Turkey and
elsewhere,
given the fact that 'Islamist' is a popular label often used for radical
movements and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden as well. That makes
Zaman a
direct party rather than a mere intellectual interlocutor in this
debate.
Therefore, we keep all our rights reserved.
I look forward to hearing from you on our meeting request with Dr.
Friedman.
Thank you for your help and cooperation in advance.
Best regards,
Ali Aslan
Washington Correspondent
Zaman
-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2010 10:58 AM
To: Ali Aslan
Subject: Request
Dear Ali,
I hope you are doing well. I am writing to you with a request. Dr.
George Friedman would like to write an op-ed for Zaman to explain our
position. Is this something you would publish?
My very best,
Reva





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RE: Confederation Projects for Turkey
Email ID: 274307
Date: 2010-03-18 18:50:55
To: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com

As I said yesterday you can introduce me by email and I'll handle the
explanation of what we are interested in doing etc...just think it would
be appropriate for you to connect us rather than me emailing them cold.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 3:05 PM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
cool, this helps
On Mar 17, 2010, at 3:03 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

This is not about published material, it's about a relationship where we
can ask questions when there's a critical event in a certain country.
Here is an outline of a draft initial letter I would send to someone who
doesn't know STRATFOR very well. I amend it and fit it to each case and
often leave out parts altogether. AS you can see there is nothing here
that would bring up the shadow cia reputation. We are clearly producers
of international affairs news.


We are looking to develop a relationship with a news organization in
Ukraine and thought Kyiv Post would be a good potential partner for
STRATFOR. We are looking for a news organization with which we can
exchange ideas, information and reports about items of interest to our
analysts at STRATFOR. In return we would offer you access to our
analysis, share information and reports and give some exclusive
interviews to your journalists at Kyiv Post. Ukraine is an important
country in the region and we would like to be able to access a better
level of information and understanding by working directly with some of
Kyiv Post's journalists.

STRATFOR focuses only on international affairs issues and we do not
cover areas that many traditional news organizations cover such as
sports, the arts or advertising. Our focus is on understanding global
events through the view of geopolitics. We also have a security team
that analyzes and collects information on issues of security that would
affect people traveling on business or leisure throughout the world.
That team focuses on terrorism, drug trafficking, kidnappings and things
of that nature relating to personal and corporate security.

What I propose is that we give you a complimentary account to
STRATFOR.com so you can read for yourself and get better acquainted with
our products. We would then offer access to a small group of your
journalists (who you would designate) and would exchange information,
research and analysis with them. We would provide one point of contact
here at STRATFOR to work with a main point of contact at your end who
you would designate.

The result we are looking for is a deeper understanding of Ukraine and
the region for STRATFOR's readers. We would hopefully provide your
readers with a better understanding of areas you are interested in as
well. This relationship can only increase the excellence of both our
products and will hopefully lead to further collaboration in the future
as we get to know and work with each other successfully. I see the first
stage as the "getting to know" each other phase and strengthening our
products to improve our news gathering and production.

If you are interested in moving forward on this idea I will send you a
draft agreement that you can look over and add your own comments or
revisions. Meanwhile, would you like to have a STRATFOR account set up
in your name so you can access our analyses and reports? If there is
someone else who should have access in addition to you please send me
their email addresses as well.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:54 PM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
sure, i was just asking how you explain the collaboration because the
zaman guys are an interesting case... we'll have to be careful with this
shadow CIA reputation
will also help me reach out to other potential confederation partners if
I can understand better how you explain the collaboration. otherwise a
lot of ppl come back with 'we publish everything on our web site'
On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:50 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

Introduce me as the VP of Communications for STRATFOR and say that I
would like to discuss with them the idea of a collaboration between
STRATFOR and X to exchange information, research and ideas that are
useful to our analysts and to their journalists. I'll get into the
rest. Does that work?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:42 PM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
yeah, it seems like you and George met with the nationalist/secularist
types, but the Gulen/AKP faction is extremely important as well. I'll
follow up with the Cihan/Zaman guys and the EnergyReport contact. can
you send me a quick brief on how you typically explain the information
exchange to these agencies? that will help me set this up for you.
On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:38 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

I'm going to follow up with David Judson then...and what about the
Today's Zaman guys? I just checked and of all the several dozen
journalists we met there and who interviewed George there were none
from Zaman. Do you want to email the main person thee who you think
I should follow up with and cc me and introduce us? You can do the
same with the best person at Energy Report as well.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:43 PM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major
Turkish media agencies
Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia,
TV6, IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others.
They have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South
America, Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza,
Kabul, Arbil.
Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
My contact: Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct
competitor to Hurriyet
Has partnership with British daily The Times
Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief
of Today's Zaman (both he and Bilici are extremely influential
within the Gulen movement.)
Additional contact: Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I
also know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more
explanation and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they
publish all the information that they get on their Web site. What we
would have to better explain is that we're looking for a direct
partnership. If we have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also
have a deal with Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
Dogan News Agency - owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
Political ideology: A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
nationalist/secularist camp
Contacts: Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and
Secretary-General of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
nationalist/secularists; David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet
- david.judson@tdn.com.tr; Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of
Hurriyet - taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr

Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was
hesitant before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has
been under attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax
evasion fines. They didnt want to also get branded as working with a
'shadow CIA'. Now he feels they have enough partnerships under his
belt to move forward with STRATFOR. My meeting with Haluk Tukel got
cancelled last minute, but we're in touch via email and I think I'll
be able to meet him when he's in DC in a couple weeks.
EnergyReport - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation.
Contacts: Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530
363 14 84); Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli,
who is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish
national security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy
negotiations on behalf of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from
the government to give him some flexibility. He and his assistant
are extremely well-connected. The magazine also has a lot of good
analysis and insider information. They are already planning on
publishing one of George's weeklies in their next publication. I'll
bring a copy of the magazine when I come to Austin next week. If we
set up a formal partnership with them, we can have regular access to
the best resources on Turkey's energy relations with Russia,
Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be extremely
useful for our source efforts. I met with Faruk and Fatma for lunch
while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will be
seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.





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Fwd: Confederation Projects for Turkey
Email ID: 1220919
Date: 2010-03-17 04:44:01
From: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To: richmond@stratfor.com

FYI, for your update
Begin forwarded message:

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: March 16, 2010 10:42:51 PM CDT
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major Turkish
media agencies
Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia, TV6,
IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others. They
have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South America,
Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza, Kabul, Arbil.
Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
My contact: Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct competitor to
Hurriyet
Has partnership with British daily The Times
Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief of
Today's Zaman (both he and Bilici are extremely influential within the
Gulen movement.)
Additional contact: Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I also
know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more explanation
and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they publish all the
information that they get on their Web site. What we would have to
better explain is that we're looking for a direct partnership. If we
have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also have a deal with
Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
Dogan News Agency - owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
Political ideology: A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
nationalist/secularist camp
Contacts: Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and Secretary-General
of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
nationalist/secularists; David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet -
david.judson@tdn.com.tr; Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of Hurriyet -
taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr

Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was hesitant
before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has been under
attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax evasion fines.
They didnt want to also get branded as working with a 'shadow CIA'. Now
he feels they have enough partnerships under his belt to move forward
with STRATFOR. My meeting with Haluk Tukel got cancelled last minute,
but we're in touch via email and I think I'll be able to meet him when
he's in DC in a couple weeks.
EnergyReport - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation.
Contacts: Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530 363
14 84); Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli, who
is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish national
security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy negotiations on behalf
of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from the government to give him
some flexibility. He and his assistant are extremely well-connected. The
magazine also has a lot of good analysis and insider information. They
are already planning on publishing one of George's weeklies in their
next publication. I'll bring a copy of the magazine when I come to
Austin next week. If we set up a formal partnership with them, we can
have regular access to the best resources on Turkey's energy relations
with Russia, Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be
extremely useful for our source efforts. I met with Faruk and Fatma for
lunch while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will
be seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.





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merging turkey codes
Email ID: 1223659
Date: 2011-08-29 16:47:12
From: richmond@stratfor.com
To: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com, anya.alfano@stratfor.com, emre.dogru@stratfor.com, meredith.friedman@stratfor.com

The following are sources you both use. I am going to merge their
codes. Please use the following codes for these people from here on out.

Bilici TR304
Kenes TR303
Sengonul TR312
Unuvar TR314
Demir TR325
Kabasakali TR324

--
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
richmond@stratfor.com
(512) 744-4324
www.stratfor.com





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Re: Dealing with the Turks
Email ID: 1457112
Date: 2010-09-01 17:47:15
From: reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To: mfriedman@stratfor.com, gfriedman@stratfor.com, bhalla@stratfor.com, bokhari@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net, emre.dogru@stratfor.com

ok, let us know how you want to use the lever of our charging them with
falsifying what we said. is that something you prefer to handle directly?
On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:45 AM, George Friedman wrote:

Ok. There are others we can approach for this. But I want to smooth the
relation with zaman and use the lever of our charging them with
falsifying what we said. I want to explore a counter at the heart of our
critics.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:43:19 -0500 (CDT)
To:
Cc: Emre Dogru; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla; George
Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
Bulent Kenes is in charge of Today's Zaman - English language. Ali Aslan
is in charge of Zaman - Turkish language. Both are Zaman.
On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:42 AM, George Friedman wrote:

Hold on. Who is ali and who is bulent. So far I only authorized
contact with zaman.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:40:15 -0500
To:
Cc: Emre Dogru; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
that's good. will add that to the email response.
if Bulent is saying no, Ali will probably say no as well. im still
waiting for his response.
Emre, Ali wanted to know which of his contacts we met with in Turkey,
so it doesn't surprise me that he and Bulent are coordinating and
exchanging emails on this. Ali was also trying to get us to issue a
retraction.
On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:37 AM, George Friedman wrote:

Further thoughts.

Turkey has no better or influential friend than stratfor in the
united states. We are not seeking a breach with the movement but
will defend ourselves. We can do it in a dialog form if he wishes.

I would say something like that.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "George Friedman"
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 15:34:55 +0000
To: Emre Dogru
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Cc: Reva Bhalla; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
Remember that we have credibility in turkey. Would it help if I
spoke to him?

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Emre Dogru
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:31:54 -0500 (CDT)
To:
Cc: Reva Bhalla; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
I was on the phone with Bulent Kenes, editor-in-chief of Today's
Zaman, for quite a while. I explained him the situation and your
purpose. Briefly, he said they will not publish a letter or article
that you would write. He suggests us to write another article and
correct mistakes that we did, send it to all our clients and "all
concerned". They will greatly cite that in their newspaper if we do
this. He says he frankly thinks that they deserve an apology due to
the "negative taste" of the report. None of the things that they
told us in our meeting was included in the report.

Between the lines, I told him that we never defined Gulen movement
as fundamental violent organization. He said it was Abdulhamit's
piece and not his.

He was pretty nice and talkative, just tried to convince me. My
personal opinion is that trying to reach out to them shows our
willingness to maintain dialogue and we're fine like this. Btw Reva,
Ali Aslan told (or forwarded) the things that you wrote him to
Bulent and Abdulhamit. Especially the parts that you got information
from them during our meeting.

George Friedman wrote:

Yes. I want to at least have it on record that we tried to have
dialogue. Use my name and no one elses. I want to write a piece.
Make it clear I am not angry. Just misunderstood.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Emre Dogru
Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:48:27 +0300
To:
Cc: Reva Bhalla; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
Sabah would not want to take side by us against Zaman. They would
prefer not to get involved in this. They are close to the
government and government is close to Gulen movement. They don't
want media quarrel.

Btw, not sure if I included in the quick translation but
Abdulhamit says we said Sabah was an Islamist newspaper.

I can contact zaman or even Abdulhamit if you'd like.

George Friedman wrote:

We don't want a neutral forum. We would like the most rabid
gulenist forum. If they will give it to us. Emre, how do you
feel about contacting zaman and saying I would like to explain
stratfor's position there.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:43:18 -0500
To: Emre Dogru
Cc: ; Kamran
Bokhari; Reva Bhalla;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
wouldn't Sabah be a more neutral forum?
On Sep 1, 2010, at 9:41 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

I don't know if they would publish one in the Turkish Zaman.
Today's Zaman is more liberal than the Turkish one, it could
publish your letter. But I think it would be good idea to ask
them before you write it.

You are right, Hurriyet is not a good idea. We can easily
become a tool in their fight.

George Friedman wrote:

Emre, would they publish one? If they did I would want a
week for all the nuts to come out. I don't want it in
hurriyet.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Kamran Bokhari
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:35:28 -0500 (CDT)
To: Reva Bhalla
Cc: Emre
Dogru; ;
George Friedman; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
I think George should write an op-ed and publish it in
Zaman.

On 9/1/2010 10:32 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

We never once described Gulen as 'violent' or 'radical' or
anything close to that.
Would we be able to do a rebuttal in Sabah? or would that
be a bad idea?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Emre Dogru"
To: "Kamran Bokhari"
Cc: "Reva
Bhalla" , friedman@att.blackberry.net,
"George Friedman", "Meredith
Friedman"
Sent: Wednesday, September 1, 2010 9:29:48 AM
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks

Here is what Abdulhamit Bilici says (btw, he was present
in the break-room before George gave lecture in Istanbul
conference hall, the short, bald guy)

Title: Strategic Scratch/defamation

An American researcher, Reva Bhalla, came to visit us few
weeks ago. Asked many questions about Gulenist schools,
referendum etc. We answered her questions and suggested
her to meet with opponents as well to see broader picture.
When I received the report, I noticed even though we've
told that the real struggle is between those who are eager
to maintain the statusquo and those who want change, they
built the entire report on Islamist - Secularist debate.
(He gives here names of Turkish intellectuals from
different nationalities and religions and says that if it
would be true, these people would be Islamist as well)

There are many faults when it comes to its objectivity. It
includes "violent radical Islamist" to define Gulen
movement as extreme opponents use. Report says Gulen
supports dialogue between religions abroad, and promotes
Islam at home. Isn't it interesting that it doesn't say
anything that could be in favor of Gulen in the West. No
mention about Gulen's meetings with Pope.

The report could mention "Abant Platform" (a conference
that Gulen movement organizes and gathers many people from
a wide specturm) to show that we make different people
come together. The report didn't say that Gulen said he
hates Bin Laden, (published on Zaman) because it could
show Gulen positive?

There are many errors; Turkish schools were shut down in
n. Iraq, Gulen praised new Turkish intel chief Fidan, a
Bank changed its name. Many many lies and allegations
without evidence.

Stratfor, which drew attention by showing Turkey as a
leader country in the future and founded by G Friedman,
needs to think what to do with all these lies..

Kamran Bokhari wrote:

Btw, Hurriyet putting your name on the shorter piece
could just be an error or something they just did as per
their SOP. A few years ago, the Pakistani daily, The
News, published one of our regular analyses with my
byline and even slapped a picture of me on it. It's
never happened again because whenever I share any of our
material with anyone I put the following disclaimer up
on top and in bold:

Please do not republish without permission. STRATFOR
reports in general are the product of a collaborative
effort on the part of our analytical group and not the
work of a single analyst. Therefore, should you need to
quote from this or any of our other analyses that do not
carry a byline, please refer to it as *STRATFOR says...*
Thank you.
On 9/1/2010 9:42 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

Bulent Kenes, editor in chief of Today's Zaman also
criticized the piece before it was published by
Hurriyet. I asked him what facts does he disagree with
and how he would portray the current situation. He did
not respond, because he simply did not have anything
to say against the facts.

Reva Bhalla wrote:

Falsifying what facts? Not a single one of these
guys has produced any evidence to the contrary. Now
they're all hell bent on making us look like an
Israeli agent just because we are the only ones who
have discussed the Gulen in detail.
I'm going to send out a draft email that I've been
composing to respond to emails like this so we can
all be on the same page and deliver the same, firm
response. These guys really think they can dictate
everything we write.
On Sep 1, 2010, at 8:30 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

One of my Turkish contacts in the U.S., a Gulenist
sent me the following note this morning:

Salam;

It seems that you're not preparing reports on
Turkey at Stratfor's anymore. It's unbelievable
that the report prepared by Reva Bhalla is
published by Stratfor despite you. There is
nothing to be gained from falsifying the facts. If
Stratfor is an institution like WINEP, this is
understandable. You have responsibility toward
your clients to portray a picture of a country
close to the facts. It seems that Reva Bhalla's
report is not prepared by this sense of
responsibility.

What is strange is that he doesn't know Reva.
Also, he has seen many of our previous reports
Turkey but never once complained. I guess he
wasn't expecting one on the Gulen movement.
On 9/1/2010 9:22 AM, George Friedman wrote:

I'm sorry hurriyet published your name but
stratfor publishes what it thinks is correct.
There is no flexibility on our part on this.
Once we start to bend very far on this, we are
finished. I will be having more substantial
pressure I'm sure. So be it.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Emre Dogru
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 04:19:44 -0500 (CDT)
To: Reva Bhalla
Cc: George Friedman;
Kamran Bokhari; Meredith
Friedman
Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
I will add my thoughts here. But before that, I
need to inform you that our Hurriyet Daily News
partners re-published our article on AKP -
Gulenist split
(http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-an-emerging-akp-gulenist-split-2010-08-31),
by referring my name and role at Stratfor. This
could further complicate the things that Reva
laid out below. For your information, I always
forward our articles on Turkey to our partners
and some people that I know. HDN did not inform
me that they would re-publish our article and
mention my name. Please let me know what we are
supposed to do now.

Apart from this, Gulenists got over-concerned
following our special report given their already
tarnishing image in the US. We've been closely
following AKP's efforts to reverse this
situation. However, we are an American company
and we wrote in detail on how Gulen community
works and their relationship to the AKP. They
don't have anything to say against the facts
that we included, because we wrote the truth.
But as Reva says, the mere fact that we wrote
about them and how they work disturbed them
intensely.

They won't be happy unless we take their side.
So, I don't think that we need to work to make
them happy. They are extremely skeptical to us
because we are American, and I'm sure they
wonder if there is an American plan in the works
against Gulen and AKP and if we are a part of
it. I think what we need to do is to convince
them that there is no such a thing and we write
what we know, without taking side by anyone.
This could help us to maintain our
relationships. Guidance would be much
appreciated, especially given HDN re-published
our article.

Thanks,
Emre

Reva Bhalla wrote:

Just want to keep everyone informed on the
feedback we're getting from the Gulenists on
the power struggle report since they are
becoming a bit of an issue and since G is
going to be in Turkey soon.

So far, feedback from the secularists,
military and moderate AKP types has been good.
The more extreme Gulenists (for example, the
editor of Today's Zaman and the US head of
Tuskon business group) are not happy with us.
It's quite clear that they were lovey dovey
with Emre and I in Turkey because they
intended for us to write out their propaganda
and describe Gulen solely as a 'peace-loving,
democratic and pro-reform human rights
organization.' The Gulenists are also on the
defensive right now with the release of a new
book in Turkey by a former police chief that
details their infiltration into police
intelligence. They are being extremely
defensive about any Islamist connotation
attached to them, and are flat out denying
their infiltration of any of the security
agencies.

We had credible sourcing for this report,
including a former Gulenist who walked me
through the recruitment process. Since this
stuff isn't discussed in English language,
they are naturally uncomfortable with it being
published. None of the Gulenists who are
criticizing the report have presented
counter-evidence to anything we've said yet
and are sticking mainly to polemic arguments.
Notably, the Today's Zaman counterargument
that was published was quite tame.

Now, these guys are difficult to deal with,
but it's important for them to realize they
need us just as it is important for us to keep
open a channel with Gulen to keep information
coming. I've been trying to work out some
sort of damage control plan to make clear to
them that Stratfor is not interested in taking
sides in this power struggle, is an
influential player in the US-Turkey
relationship and how it behooves both sides to
continue working with each other. George, do
you have any guidance on how to handle this so
we can maintain these relationships? The
Gulenists can get really nasty if you get on
their bad side, and i want to avoid that.

Thanks,
R

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com





---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
Email ID: 1537069
Date: 2010-03-11 08:39:14
To: bhalla@stratfor.com, bayless.parsley@stratfor.com
From: emre.dogru@stratfor.com

no worries, Bayless. Gulenist guys loved me and I'm sure they will be
happy to cover my wedding expenses. The only problem is that you won't be
able to drink alcohol.

Bayless Parsley wrote:

that means it's going to be expensive

Reva Bhalla wrote:

dude im going to plan their wedding
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bayless Parsley"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Cc: "emre dogru"
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:43:10 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

oh and i'm sure she is just thrilled the emre pasha is road trippin'
it with some ethnic looking american girl

Reva Bhalla wrote:

haha, the Albanian chick is super cute, btw. Emre Pasha has good
taste
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bayless Parsley"
To: "Reva Bhalla" , "emre dogru"

Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:39:19 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

one question: can the power of stratfor get emre laid if he ever
ditches his albanian chick?

Reva Bhalla wrote:

a little anecdote i forgot to add. while we were waiting for our
meeting at the prime minister's building, there was a young guy in
the waiting room who was waiting for his boss who was meeting with
Erdogan's advisor. the guy used to work for an MP and is in the
parliament scene in Ankara. when he found out we were from
Stratfor, he got really excited and told us about how he and his
friend sent a letter to the parliament's head of information or
whatever as a petition for all Turkish MPs to get Stratfor
subscriptions. Obviously he's a big fan and this is something we
can pursue as an institution deal. (getting the appropriate
contact info for this). At the AKP think tank we visited in
Ankara today, they also told us clearly 'we know the power of
Stratfor'. Everyone here wants to influence us one way or another.
Turkey needs a voice in DC. THey're hoping it's us.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "analysts"
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:24:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

Going to sum up a few meetings so far. i will go into more detail
later when it's not 230am and not exhausted from traveling 12 hrs
traveling between istanbul and ankara. Emre will fill in any
other details I've missed. We will be meeting next with two
Turkish energy experts (send questions if you have them -- we need
good turkey energy sources), CEO of Sabanci group (one of the
Istanbul giants), TUSKON business association (Gulenist) and then
on the opposite side of the political spectrum, the head of Dogan
media, then Isbank (also a bastion for the nationalists and
Istanbul giants)
For the first part of my trip, Emre and I have been hanging out
with hardcore Gulenists. We started at Zaman headquarters (Zaman
is main Gulenist newspaper and media voice for AKP, Today's Zaman
is the English-language daily). We met with the Editor in Chief of
Today's Zaman and the head of Cihan news agency (which runs their
major media outlets). Cihan is now the most powerful media outlet
in Turkey. It used to be Hurriyet, dominated by the nationalists,
but they're under attack (will get to that later).
They explicitly represented themselves as part of the 'jamaah', or
the 'movement', as they like to call it. The way they represent
their agenda is that this is about democratization in Turkey,
human rights, world peace, etc. The guy was actually quoting
Western liberal philosophers trying to show how much in common
they have with them in respect for these democratic values, and
this is what's essential for Turkey's candidacy in the EU. The
irony, they claim, is that people think because they're Islamist,
they're fundamentalist and not modern, whereas the authoritarians
(in their view) ie. the military, are the ones who are seen in the
West as modern. This is what frustrates them. So, by promoting
this peace, love and democracy campaign, they say they are
fighting for constitutional reform, business and political
pluralism, civilian control over military, judicial reform, etc.
That there is no secret agenda. (my note -- what Emre and I
noticed is that in all our meetings with Gulenists, they recited
almost the same lines verbatim. they're very well rehearsed in
selling this model. At the root of this, however, is power. The
established elite, ie. the military, Istanbul business giants,
etc. are being threatened by an Islamist political vehicle fueled
by the Anatolian small-to-med business class.) Both of the
sources talked about how they need to raise an Anatolian business
class to undermine the Istanbul giants (they essentially
articulated our own theory, which was cool.).
We discussed the Ergenekon case a lot, which gave them plenty of
opportunity to bash the military for being so irresponsible and
disrespectful to the civilian government. What struck us most is
how they claim they have allies within the military, people high
up in rank, who are disaffected with the establishment and are
WILLING to provide leaks to the Gulenist newspapers and
intelligence services that support these coup allegations. We
heard the exact same story the next day at a Gulenist organization
that we visited. More likely this is an allusion to their
successful penetration of the military (have sent more detailed
insight on this previously)
We also discussed the Gulen schools that are spreading across the
globe, expanding Turkish influence. Of course these are the
schools with teh best resources, facilities. Students will learn
how to speak Turkish, the national anthem, how to be the 'right
kind of Muslim', etc. In essence, it buys them loyalty. We are
still working on getting a complete database of Gulenist schools.
They claim that have more than 2,000 in 200 countries so far.
Today's Zaman editor in chief also talked about his experience at
Turkish Daily News, which is now owned by Dogan group (which owns
Hurriyet and is under attack now by AKP/Gulen). He said at TDN the
tax evasion was so obvious and went into detail about how they did
it and how his salary was parceled out to allow them to write off
most of it. this story was used by him to claim that they at
Zaman didn't start this media war with Hurriyet, it was Hurriyet
that started it because they were involved in all this bad
business, etc.
The next day, Emre and I visited a major Gulenist organization
that puts together these massive conferences all over the world to
promote their agenda, raise funds, recruits, etc. Their office is
in a very expensive part of Istanbul. They've got the best
facilities, this beautiful theater system. In short, they've got
money. Now you have to ask yourself, where is the money coming
from? the head of the organization that met with us and
propagandized us kept talking about all these peace love and
harmony efforts to spread the Gulen ideas and democratize Turkey,
spread Turkey's influence, etc. But their funding comes mainly
from co-opting the Anatolian business class. Again we heard about
how they have allies within the military 'brave' enough to issue
leaks on their coup plots.
After getting a very long tour of the entire building, top to
bottom, they sat us down for a Gulen propaganda film in their
theater. Emre sitting in the middle of the Gulen guy and I. The
Gulen guy is so overcome by the speech shown in the video by
Fethullah Gulen, that he starts crying. Meanwhile im trying really
hard not to laugh. It was an interesting experience.
That evening I had dinner with the editor in chief of Hurriyet,
way on the other side of the political spectrum. He gave his
version of the tax evasion case, said that Zaman and Gulen started
the whole thing and that Bulent Kenes (Zaman editor who we met
with) was part of the problem, he profiteered from that system. In
short, it's very, very tense. The night I met him, he had just
found out that Zaman was suing them for running an article by
Soner Cagaptay, who Gulenists are trying extremely hard to defame
(it's very obvious). This source confirmed what I have heard
earlier about Gulen penetration of military and how they win the
support of the Anatolian business class by giving them a lucrative
place in the supply chain. He gave an example of the Gulen school
influence -- he met with the Algerian ambassador - trained in a
Gulen school, spoke fluent Turkish, extremely friendly to the
Turkish government. A very well-oiled system.
Today, Emre and I took a road trip to Ankara. We first visited the
USAK think tank, which was opened by Abdullah Gul (the president)
in 2009. THey also have a gorgeous office building. The head of
the think tank started out by telling us what Turkish 'soft power'
looks like. He said that during the Cold War times, Turkey looked
at the Arab world in disgust, like they were inferiors. Now Turkey
is paying attention to its neighborhood, wants to stabilize,e tc
(the Davutoglu line). What was most interesting is when he talked
about how Turkey already has plenty to work from in the MIddle
East. He said, Syrians, Egyptians, Iraqis, even Iranians --
they're ALL TURKS. He says they look like Turks, they have TUrkish
relatives from Ottoman history, they want to be like Turks, they
love Turkish lifestyle, etc etc. He said that there is 'no such
thing as an Arab' or Arab nationalism under Nasser. They're all
Turks and Egypt is not a power to be taken seriously. (if any
Arab were in that room, their head would have probably
exploded). they're nothing. Israel is also nothing compared to
Turkish economic, regional, political, population power. He went
on to explain how Turkey can solve everyone's problems, by opening
borders, removing visa restrictions and improving trade with
Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc. A key part of this strategy is also to
benefit the AKP's strategy of raising its own business class ---
the Turkish merchants who benefit from increased trade in the
Mideast are the Antaolian businessmen, and AKP is making sure of
that.
This AKP think tank is in all the big Turkish delegations. He said
that in their last trip to Syria, Bashar tells them he wants to
open the border and wants to democratize (on the latter, yeah
freakin right). He also claims that after their meetings, the
members of the Syrian business council were practically begging
them to stay because they said once the Turks in that delegation
left, everything would go back to the same. Overall, we got the
impression from several of these meetings that Turkey is extremely
focused on the Syria track and increasingly more so on the
Egyptian track. They expect and claim these countries welcome the
Turks with open arms. They also couldn't stop talkinga bout how
Turkish television programs over satellite are spreading os much
influence throughout the mideast and shows them how to be modern
Turks. Saudi Arabia apparently has banned or is trying to ban
these shows. I myself have seen how Turkish soap operas are
extremely popular in the mideast.
He confirmed our analysis that Russia has no intention of seeing
through a Turkey-Armenia deal - it wouldn't make any sense. He
says the AKP leadership was so naive to think that the talks would
go anywhere. Now it's time to turn back to Azerbaijan and Georgia
and fix things with them. AFter all, he says, Azerbaijan doesn't
want to become another dependent of Russia's.
One other interesting thing he said about the Russian factor in
those Armenia talks was that Turkey really expected the US to get
more involved. He said Russia of course was an obstacle, we knew
that. But, the US could have made concessions to Russia to allow
this Armenia deal through. In other words, they expected the US to
be part of a grand bargain in which the US would recognize that
Turkey-Armenia relationship would bring all kinds of benefits, ie.
strengthen an ally in the Caucasus, take care of the genocide
issue, etc. Turkey also expected US to pay a price to Russia for
this project. Here is where there appears to be a
misunderstanding, especially since this Armenia-Turkey deal is
likely very low on US priorities when it comes to how to bargain
with Russia.
We then met Erdogan's chief advisor at the prime minister's
building. This guy is also a Gulenist, but not openly so. The
Hurriyet people say he is and Emre and i noticed the way he was
talking on the phone and using certain phrases marked him as one.
We got a lot of the Davutoglu diplomatic line from him (he's a
very smooth and articulate guy, as Kamran knows). He said that
there needs to be more time in the Iran negotiations and that
things only got really serious in the past 6-7 months. US can't
expect all this to happen overnight. He claims taht prior to the
Iranian Revolution anniversary in February, that Iran actually
agreed to the Turkey fuel swap deal. When they took the deal to
the US, he says the US was totally unprepared then came back and
said they can't do it. Turkey was pissed. They feel that this, in
addition to the Armenia issue and everything else, just goes to
show how the Obama administration doesn't have strong political
leadership (Bush at least fought the armenia resolution) and that
the US doesn't understand or appreciate Turkey's role in the
region. They feel betrayed, to use his words. He says it's
hypocritical for US to get mad if Turkey talks to Russia when
everyone applauds US and Russia negotiating. He says the reason
Turkey is so active in the east is because they're actually
receptive to them there (hint, hint - go tell your government to
wake up and appreciate us). He, like the guy at the AKP Usak
think tank, talked about how Turkey needs the US as a partner in
this region. US just needs to recognize it.

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
+1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com