Covering ledge get up

When the opponent is at the ledge, there are two optimal positions for him to be :
right next to the ledge holding shield (at Nair's max range) or at Ftilt tipper range.

There are two possible options for the opponent :
do an unreactable option (neutral get up), do a reactable option (everything else)

I have to guess which one he will pick. If he does an unreactable option, either Nair oos or Ftilt on reaction to the opponent's character model moving.
If he does a reactable option, wait for the animation to be far enough that it is clear which option he picked, and punish appropriatly. In the situation where he get up jump, I should not commit and read what follow up option/how he will land.