12/28-12/29/22 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

12/28-12/29/22 Update, day 308-309 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

RU movement continues towards the border in SW Belarus, stoking concerns about a potential RU assault. However, given the lack of manpower in the forces deployed here, and the lack of formation of assault groups, the UA Intel agencies state that "The claim that RU and Belarusian forces are currently ready for offensive actions on UA territory is false". There has long been statements that this is all an information op to draw UA troops away from the east.

Approximately 11k personnel and 400 pieces of equipment are here, which is less than half of the RU grouping used in the initial invasion. RU is expanding its de-facto control over airbases in Belarus.

During the large RU missile barrage on 12.29, an S-300 air defense missile was shot down in SW Belarus, in the Brest border region, without injuries or damage.

While speculation is that this was a UA air-defense missile that went off course, given the presence of UA air defense activation in W Ukraine today, some members of the UA government state "it is not ruled out that this is an RU provocation".

Ukraine has stated they are willing to cooperate with independent investigators to determine what happened, and Belarus summoned the UA ambassador in protest.

While there is no indication that Belarusian based missiles or combat aircraft were utilized, their is considerable evidence that Belarus has been used as a Shahed-136 drone launching site, with launches late into the night in Ukraine targeting Kyiv.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

Today, the 10th RU air and sea-launched cruise missile salvo occured, with 69 missiles and 11 Shahed-136 drones launched across Ukraine. 54 of the 69 missiles were intercepted, for a ratio of about 78%. Per the UA government, all 16 missiles targeting Kyiv were intercepted, although at least 3 that were shot down caused damage to buildings.

Across the country, 10 infrastructure facilities were damaged.

Underground metro service was not interrupted in the capital, while the aboveground trams remain suspended and replaced with buses. Currently, blackouts continue in the region with some 180k households depowered in the region. Approximately 40% of residents do not have power in Kyiv.

There were additional RU strikes in W Ukraine, in Yavoriv just 15km from the Polish border, as well as Lviv and Ternopil. In Ivano-Frankivsk, a rocket slammed into a persons home but did not explode.

There are widespread power outages in Lviv tonight, with approximately 90% of the city depowered and water supplies interrupted. 2 of 6 rockets hit the electrical substation.

RU Shahed drones attacked locations in Kyiv late at night on Thursday, with one hitting near a hospital in NE Kyiv. There are no current reported casualties.

Approximately 80% of surveyed respondents in Ukraine support EU membership, with 8% against and 12% undecided.

Per RU sources, UA is increasingly relying on its working NPP's to provide energy to the country. It is likely their energy transmission networks will become targets.

A french company Neo-Eco plans to use construction excess material to renovate buildings in Kyiv region, intending to restore some 1800 apartments and a school. They are using material from destroyed infrastructure near Hostomel.

The French Minister of Defense met with the UA MoD and they agreed to transfer more air defense systems to UA.

The UA government has allocated an additional 16.5 Million USD to the UA national guard for payroll, training, and recruitment.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

At least 3 people died as a result of shelling and rocket strikes in Kharkiv oblast, around Chuhuiv and Kupyansk. Numerous others were wounded. It appears S-300s were used, as well as Shahed drones.

The metro was suspended briefly during the attacks.

Some 93 people were evicted from living in two subway stations in Kharkiv, who have been living there since spring. The city states that there are plenty of shelters available, and that people living permanently in these stations has created unsanitary conditions and other issues.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

Reportedly, there has been a noted increase in desertion cases of RU servicemembers along this front, with increased barrier troop patrols to detain and return deserters to the front line. Radio intercepts confirm this.

The ground here remains cold, but not solidly frozen enough for heavy mechanized forces.

Per the UA government, the UA military is having successes on the Svatove-Kreminna axis, but there are a large quantity of mines and newly conscripted RU troops in the area.

UA forces continue to press on RU positions near Kuzemivka, with RU forces desperately working to retain control over the highway and the rubbelized town of Novoselivske, where UA presence would have an elevation advantage over RU troops encamped further west, all the way to Svatove. Svatove continues to be shelled.

RU forces SW of Svatove in Ploschanka appear to be launching counter-attacks towards UA positions.

NW of Kreminna, UA continues to skirmish towards Chervonovpopivka and the highway, with no current registered gain.

SW of Kreminna, UA troops appear to be continuing assaults towards Dibrova via the forested regions, with the exact control unclear. UA forces continue to operate in the area due S of Kreminna, and shelling continues into Kreminna proper.

UA claims to have advanced 2.5km in the direction of Kreminna. This likely refers to the S/SW approach. RU command has already been withdrawn from Kreminna, and some RU contractors and occupation government workers have begun departing as well, including several mid-project.


Siversk/Lysychansk.

There is no major change around Siversk/Lysychansk, with RU attempts towards the NE,E, and SE fronts. It appears that more RU forces have been redeployed here from Kherson.

There were missile strikes along the main highways in Lyman, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.This is broadly a semicircle leading up from Bakhmut.

Up to 8k people live in Severodonetsk, and some 500 children.

RU military officials beat a man severely over two days in Lysychansk, whereupon he returned home and died.


Bakhmut:

In Soledar, the situation remains unchanged, with RU forces still firmly in control of the SE section of the city and areas around the large open pit mine. RU forces appear to also be attempting attacks via Bakhmutske.

RU forces continue to skirmish in the fields to the NE of Bakhmut city, near the intersection right outside of town and its gas station there. RU forces here appear to have made some progress along the highway into NE bakhmut, as they attempt to exert control overt the fields and high elevation forested hill here. UA artillery fires in response.

To the E, along the heavily defended Patrisa Lumumby st, RU forces continue to work to dislodge UA forces from their last defensive strongpoint's, having demonstrably cleared the 2 eastern strongpoint's and potentially the 3rd, out of 4. The final strongpoint is a winery across the river, and thus will likely require more RU advancement down the forested hill from the NE before it is threatened.

RU forces do continue to press here, and this area has a 50 ft elevation dip valley between the two sides, which has become a no man's land. RU shelling remains heavy here. Approximately 40% of shelling on the E front occurs in bakhmut every day.

SE of Bakhmut, RU forces have continued attempts to fight downhill from their positions in the garbage dump towards the UA residential region, and were repelled.

S of Bakhut, RU forces appear to have seized more territory in the fields W of Opytne, as RU attempts further movement clockwise of Bakhmut along this whole SW front. It is likely that RU will have the capability to push into S bakhmut's residential sector, should UA lose Opytne.

Otherwise, RU shelling continues unabated on both frontline and supply line targets to the W and SW of Bakhmut city.

Per ISW, observed groupings of RU forces here are no longer battalion level, but more independent squads or at most platoons, which indicates that RU force degradation is causing severe issues with their ability to mass forces for planned assaults. This chaotic nature will likely lead to more RU casualties for less gain.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU forces continued to skirmish around Vodyane and Avdiivka, with a drone strike being recorded in this region.

UA forces conducted deep strikes on RU groupings and ammo depots near Luhansk, in Alchevsk as well as Starobilsk.

Reportedly, hospitals are filling up to max capacity with RU wounded. There is a blood supply shortage.


Mariupol:

RU forces continue to transit through Mariupol towards Berdyansk and Melitopol. The situation remains grim for those who remain there, with power and heating scarce.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis :

RU forces have continued shelling along this front in the last 48 hours, including MLRS fired cluster bombs in Hulayipol, Orikhiv from presumably a long range Uragan system. RU also fired S-300 missiles into Zaporizhia proper and the surrounding environs. At least one casualty was reported.

7 Shahed drones were shot down immediately around Zaporizhia. UA forces conducted deep strikes towards Berdyansk, destroying an ammo warehouse and S300 battery,resulting in some 150 injured and unknown dead.

RU forces are having desertion issues in this region, with RU Natl Guard looking for over 200 people.

Overnight, an additional 10 drones were shot down between Dnipro and Zaporizhia.

The SBU continues to investigate churches of the UOC in this region.


Kherson:

RU forces continue to shell into downtown Kherson, as well as utilize Shahed drones. 4 were shot down near the Kinburn spit, as UA continues to shell into RU groupings near Hola Prystan and Kahkovka. Deep strikes continue on RU groupings in Skadovsk, Chaplynka, and Henichesk.

RU forces continue to shell into Ochakiv, with no visible return fire on the Kinburn peninsula.

RU SOF and recon groups allegedly try and occupy the small islands in the Dnipro near Hola Prystan every day, but are shelled by UA forces.

RU is reportedly shelling the town of Oleshky, which they control on the S side of the former Antonovsky bridge, killing a woman en route to a dental appointment before bringing in their own film crew. There are about 5,000 people still in Oleshky.

There are tentative plans to evacuate the SW section of Kherson closest to the port, due to heavy RU shelling here.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

Up to 10 RU ships are in the Black sea, with a surface vessel and submarine carrying 20 Kalibr cruise missiles before todays bombardment.

Numerous missiles were fired towards Odesa, the largest target of the day, with reportedly 21 being successfully intercepted. At least one missile struck the major power station outside of town.

While there are no reported casualties, there are widespread power outages. 450k people remain without electricity.

Another missile struck a UA ammot depot closer to Mykolaiv.

Broadly speaking, while it is known publicly that at least one modern air defense system is active in this region, it appears that UA had approximately a 90% intercept rate here, accounting for two missile strikes and one missile which crashed headed further inland.

RU air defense activated around Sevastopol and the airbase at Dzhankoi.

A monument to Catherine II of Russia was dismantled, and will be transferred to an art museum. This comes after an online poll demanded it be dismantled.

In Crimea, an investigative journalist was sentenced by the occupation government to 7 years in prison for "possession of an explosive device".


General:

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

790x soldiers (Total 104,560)
10x APC
1x Tank
10x Artillery (5x MLRS)
15x vehicles
1x Helicopter
10x UAV

During the massive missile strike today, RU's Ministry of Defense posted a picture of a sea-launched missile stating "The Kalibrs will never end".

The UA GUR intel service has stated more then 3 RU soldiers were killed, and several vehicles including aircraft were damaged. The specifics are still being investigated. A theory online points to a strike on the air control tower- if that is visualized via satellite imagery, it will potentially support the other allegations of numerous dead and wounded.

Also per the GUR, while RU and Iran are still in talks about the supplying of ballistic missiles, the Iranian regime is concerned about international backlash and is not eager to agree to the transfer.

A personal informant to Igor Girkin, who was detained in May, was sentenced to 10 years imprisonment. This individual sent classified info to girkin.

Putin has formalized a decree to increase the issuance of passports to UA citizens in the occupied territories.

The UK will allocate 2.7 Billion USD to help Ukraine in 2023.

UA and RU representatives are conducting negotiations to allow for POW's to call their relatives on both sides.

Sergei Lavrov, RU Foreign minister, stated that RU would not conduct negotiations based on Zelenskys peace plans which included a full RU withdrawal and international tribunals.

Lithuania froze Russian and Belarusian assets totaling more than 92 million USD.

UA is reportedly looking to produce air-to-air combat drones to counter the RU drone threat.

A Ukrainian Oligarch Konstantin Shevago, the 5th richest man in Ukraine, was detained in france on request of the UA government. He is worth some 1.4 billion USD.