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- I. 13.1: Roots of Modern Political Campaigns
- a. The Nomination Campaign
- i. Phase of a political campaign aimed at winning a primary election
- ii. Begins when candidate has decided to run for office (could be years before election)
- iii. What happens?
- 1) Target party leaders and interest group
- 2) Test themes, slogans, and strategies
- 3) Adjust to pressures of being candidates
- a) Learn that simple careless phrases could end a campaign (public eye is less critical during this period)
- iv. Candidates should avoid moving too far to the right/left
- 1) Looks too extreme to the electorate in November
- 2) Activists generally more ideologically extreme than party-identified voters in the general electorate, and they vote more often in primary elections
- a) Nevertheless, avoid the extremes
- i) Ex. Goldwater v. LBJ, McGovern v. Nixon
- b. The General Election Campaign
- i. Phase of a political campaign aimed at winning election to office
- ii. Usually run against members of different political parties
- 1) Usually decide to move their positions on political issues toward the ideological center (attract moderate voters)
- iii. Length varies from state-state
- 1) States that hold primaries in January: Long
- 2) States that hold primaries in September: Short
- 3) Affects how candidates structure their campaigns/raise money/who they meet on campaign trail/advertising strategies
- II. 13.2: Assembling a Campaign Staff
- a. The Candidate
- i. Why run?
- 1) Personal ambition
- 2) Desire to promote ideological objectives or pursue specific public policies
- 3) Think they can do a better job
- ii. How to be successful?
- 1) Spend a considerable amount of time and energy in pursuit of their desired office
- 2) Be prepared to expose themselves and often their families to public scrutiny and the chance of rejection by the voters
- iii. Try to meet as many citizens as possible in the course of a campaign
- 1) Done to show thoughtfulness/hardworkingness
- 2) Symbolic to some degree (impossible to meet everyone)
- 3) There is some value in visiting numerous localities both to increase media coverage and to motiate local activists who are working for the candidate’s campaign
- iv. (Busy) Schedule Example:
- 1) Morning
- a) 5:00 - Entrance gate to an auto plant with an hour or two of handshaking
- b) Got to subway stops, do same thing 'til 9:00
- c) Rest of morning: Strategy sessions with key advisers and preparation for upcoming presentations/forums
- 2) Afternoon
- a) Luncheon talk, afternoon fundraisers, and a series of media interviews
- 3) Evening
- a) Dinner speech, cocktail parties, telephone or neighborhood canvassing of voters, and a civic forum
- 4) Nighttime
- a) Meetings with advisers and planning for the next day’s events 'til past midnight
- v. Consequences:
- 1) Strained family life
- 2) Lack of reflection and long-range planning
- 3) Tendency to make mistakes (wrong sport's team reference, messed-up speech)
- 4) More prone to temper-losing (to criticism when they believe it's unjust/about to lose campaign)
- b. The Campaign Staff
- i. Plan general strategy, conduct polls, write speeches, craft the campaign’s message, and design a communications plan to disseminate that message (TV advertisements, radio spots, Web sites, and direct mail)
- 1) Others organize fund-raising events, campaign rallies, and direct voter contacts
- ii. Vary on size depending on type of race
- iii. Campaign Manager
- 1) Travels with the candidate and coordinates the campaign
- 2) Makes day-to-day decisions (when to air ads)
- 3) Determines campaign’s overall strategy and works to keep the campaign on message throughout the race
- iv. Finance Chair
- 1) Coordinates financial business of the campaign
- a) Raises money, keeps record of funds received/spent, files required paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (bureaucratic agency in charge of monitoring campaign activity)
- 2) Grown in prestige and significance as campaign cost has risen
- 3) Who?
- a) State/Local: Volunteer accountant
- b) Federal: Hired by candidate
- v. Communications Staff
- 1) Develops the overall media strategy for the candidate
- a) Stays apprised of newspaper, TV, radio, and Internet coverage, and supervises media consultants who craft campaign advertisements
- 2) Works closely with the press secretary (Interacts and communicates with journalists on a daily basis, spokesperson)
- a) Is quoted in news coverage, explains the candidate’s issue positions, reacts to actions of opponents
- b) Delivers bad news, responds to attacks from opponents
- 3) Internet Team
- a) Post on blogs advocating for the candidate and create candidate profiles on social networking sites
- b) Organize Web chats or real-world meet-ups and grassroots events
- c) Liaisons w/ campaign volunteers
- vi. Campaign Consultants
- 1) Private-sector professional who sells to a candidate the technologies, services, and strategies needed to be elected
- 2) Number grown exponentially since 1930s, become more important in campaigns
- 3) Generally hire specialized consultants who focus on only one or two areas (Fund-raising, polling, media relations, Internet outreach, and speech writing)
- a) Media: Design advertisements for distribution on TV, the Internet, radio, billboards, and flyers. Work w/ communications director
- b) Pollsters: Conduct public opinion surveys (To gather opinions from a candidate’s potential constituents, tell a candidate where he or she stands relative to opponents, or provide useful information about the issues and positions important to voters)
- i) Work w/ media staff to predict impact of proposed ads
- vii. Volunteers
- 1) Answer phone calls, staff candidate booths at festivals and county fairs, copy and distribute campaign literature, and serve as the public face of the campaign
- 2) Voter Canvass: Process by which a campaign reaches individual voters
- a) Door-to-door solicitation
- b) Telephone calls
- 3) Near Election Day: get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts
- a) Contacting of supporters to encourage them to vote and arranging for their transportation to the polls (if necessary
- b) Internet & social media have been helpful to do this
- III. 13.3: Raising Money
- a. Great campaign = lots of money
- i. $2B raised by Democratic and Republican Parties
- ii. Presidential campaigns raised $1B additional support
- iii. Candidates for the Senate raised $644M
- iv. Candidates for the House raised $1B
- b. Regulating Campaign Finance
- i. US struggled to regulate campaign spending for >100 yrs
- 1) 1883: Congress passed civil service reform legislation that prohibited solicitation of political funds from federal workers
- 2) 1907: Tillman Act prohibited corporations from making direct contributions to candidates for federal office
- 3) Others limit the corrupting influence of campaign spending: Corrupt Practices Acts (1910, 1911, and 1925), Hatch Act (1939), and Taft-Hartley Act (1947)
- ii. Didn't enact serious, broad campaign finance regulation until post-Watergate (1970s)
- 1) Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) and its amendments established disclosure requirements
- 2) Presidential Public Funding Program provided partial public funding for presidential candidates who meet certain criteria
- 3) Federal Election Commission (FEC) created to to enforce the nation’s election laws
- a) Monitors infractions of campaign finance rules and acts as a quasi-judicial arbiter of conflicts
- iii. 2002: Clear that there was still issues; Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) signed under GWB
- 1) Limited the broadcast of issue advocacy ads within thirty days of a primary election and sixty days of a general election and set hard limits on campaign contributions from a number of sources, including individuals, political parties, political action committees, and members of Congress
- 2) 2003: Supreme Court ruled that the government’s interest in preventing corruption overrides the free speech rights to which the parties would otherwise be entitled (BCRA legal)
- iv. Other sections ruled unconstitutional, though
- 1) 2007: Ruled that 30/60 day limits were unconstitutional (opened door to electioneering communications throughout the election cycle)
- 2) 2008: Overturned part attempting to limit the amount of a candidate’s own money that could be spent on running for office
- 3) Citizens United v. FEC (2010): Ruled ban on electioneering communications made by corporations and unions illegal
- a) Caused campaign spending to go up to $6B in 2012 elections
- v. Basically: There are limits to a person's individual expenditures, but independent expenditures (funds spent to advocate for the election of a candidate without coordinating with that candidate’s campaign committee) are allowed
- 1) Reforms to spending have found little Congressional support
- c. Sources of Campaign Funding
- i. Individuals (From citizens)
- 1) Majority of funds come from these people (way below limits, of course)
- a) individual donors accounted for…
- i) 60% contributions to candidates for the House of Representatives
- ii) 75% contributions to candidates for the Senate
- iii) 85% contributions to presidential candidates
- One. 2012: 34% of $600M campaign (Obama)
- 2) Limits:
- a) $2,500 per election to each candidate in 2011–2012 (separate for primaries and secondaries)
- b) Total of $117,500 in gifts to all candidates, political action committees, and parties combined per two-year election cycle
- c) Rise at rate of inflation each cycle
- ii. Political Parties
- 1) Limits:
- a) $5,000 per election to a House candidate, $43,100 to a Senate candidate
- 2) Usually 20% of their candidates’ total campaign funds
- iii. Personal Savings
- 1) Buckley v. Valeo (1976): No limit could be placed on the amount of money candidates can spend from their own families’ resources, since such spending is considered a First Amendment right of free speech
- 2) Thus, wealthy politicians tend to spend millions to fund their campaigns, which gains attention
- a) 2012: Linda McMahon spent $40 million of her own money to run for CN Senate
- 3) Most candidates commit much less than $100,000 in family resources to their election bids
- iv. Political Action Committees (PACs)
- 1) Officially recognized fund-raising organizations that represent interest groups and are allowed by federal law to make contributions directly to candidates’ campaigns
- a) 4,000 PACs are registered with the FEC
- 2) Who can create them?
- a) Labor unions, corporations, trade unions, ideological issue groups, members of Congress seeking to build their party’s membership
- 3) Limits:
- a) $5,000 per candidate per election
- b) $15,000 each year to each of the national party committees
- 4) History:
- a) Began to rise in significance during the 1970s
- i) Grew from 113 in 1972 to 4,268 in 1988
- b) Played a major role in congressional elections
- c) Declined in 2012 (only $32M spent)
- i) 61% to Reps
- ii) 39% to Dems
- 5) Controversial
- a) Some think PACs are the embodiment of corrupt special interests that use campaign donations to buy the votes of legislators
- i) Use contributions to punish legislators/affect policy
- ii) Legislators who vote contrary to the wishes of a PAC see their donations withheld
- v. 527 Political Committees
- 1) Organizations created with the primary purpose of influencing electoral outcomes
- 2) Applied only to freestanding interest groups that do not explicitly advocate for the election of a candidate
- 3) Subject to limited government regulation
- a) No limits set on how much an individual or other organization may contribute/on how much a group may spend on electoral activities
- i) 2012: $343 million, w/ a narrow favoring of Dems
- ii) Notable 527s: ActBlue and EMILY’s List for Dems, Citizens United for Reps
- vi. 501(c) Groups
- 1) Interest groups whose primary purpose is not electoral politics
- 2) Limits:
- a) Half of a 501(c) group’s budget
- 3) Named from tax code established
- 4) Became significantly involved in electoral politics after the Supreme Court lifted BCRA’s ban on issue advocacy
- a) Most of electoral activity focuses on raising awareness of candidates’ positions on issues of interest to the group
- 5) Not required to disclose the source of their donations (spend money on campaigns)
- a) 2012: Same amount as 527, but favored Dems
- b) Notables: American Values Action and the America’s Not Stupid for Reps, Many state chapters of Planned Parenthood for Dems
- vii. Super PACs
- 1) Political action committee established to make independent expenditures (Spending for campaign activity that is not coordinated with a candidate’s campaign)
- 2) Limits:
- a) Cannot give money directly to candidates or party committees
- b) May advocate on behalf of candidates
- c) Must disclose the sources of their contributions to the FEC
- i) May take money from any person or organization interested in influencing the political process
- ii) Not subject to contribution or expenditure limits
- 3) 2012: $600M, more to Mitt Romney
- a) $100M to Rep primaries
- d. Public Funds
- i. Donations from general tax revenues to the campaigns of qualifying candidates
- 1) Presidential-candidate only (fewer choose to claim them)
- ii. Some states
- offer public funds to qualifying individuals running for particular offices, especially within the judiciary
- iii. How to get funds?
- 1) Gain eligibility during nomination campaign by raising at least $5,000 in individual contributions of $250 or less in each of twenty states
- 2) Can then apply for federal matching funds (Donations to presidential campaigns whereby every dollar raised from individuals in amounts less than $251 is matched by the federal treasury)
- a) Done if the Presidential Election Campaign Fund has enough money to do so
- b) Taxpayers who designate $3 of their taxes for this purpose each year when they send in their federal tax returns provide the money for the fund (20% check box off)
- 3) General election: Two major-party presidential nominees can accept $91.2M lump-sum payment from the federal government after the candidate accepts his or her nomination
- a) Accept? It becomes the sole source for financing the campaign
- b) Refuse? No terms, no money!
- i) 2008: Obama first to do this
- ii) 2012: No one took payments
- 4) What about third-parties?
- a) A smaller amount of public funds proportionate to his or her November vote total (if at least 5% of vote)
- b) Comes only after election is over; no money is given in advance of the general election
- c) Only two have qua;ified
- i) John Anderson in 1980 (7%)
- ii) Ross Perot in 1992 (19%)
- IV. 13.4: Reaching Voters
- a. Traditional Media
- i. During campaign season: news media constantly report political news
- 1) Largely based on news editors’ decisions of what is newsworthy or “fit to print”
- a) Reports what candidates are doing, such as giving speeches, holding fundraisers, or meeting with party leaders
- b) Investigate rumors of a candidate’s misdeeds or unflattering personal history, such as run-ins with the law, alleged use of drugs, or alleged sexual improprieties
- ii. Usually frustrating for campaigns (uncontrollable content stream, though free name recognition)
- 1) Reporters are obsessed with the "horserace" aspect of politics, ignoring candidates’ issues and ideas in favor of who's winning
- 2) Public opinion polls, especially tracking polls, dominate TV especially
- 3) Journalists often predict the margins by which they expect contenders to lose/win
- a) These projected margins of victory in these polls could affect whether people decide to give money and other types of support to a candidate
- iii. Strategies to Control Media Coverage
- 1) Staff members often seek to isolate the candidate from the press
- a) Reduces chances that reporters will bait a candidate into saying something bad
- 2) Campaign stages media events: activities designed to include brief, clever quotes called sound bites and staged with appealing backdrops so that they will be covered on the TV news and in the newspaper
- 3) Put Spin: put forward the most favorable possible interpretation for their candidate (and the most negative for their opponent) on any circumstance occurring in the campaign
- a) Work w/ press to get right POV across
- 4) Circumvent news by placing candidates in talk shows which they have an opportunity to present their views and answer questions
- iv. Candidate Debates
- 1) First face-to-face presidential debate in U.S. history didn't happen til 1960 (become regular feature in 1980s)
- 2) Why?
- a) Consolidates voter base
- b) Corrects misperceptions about the candidate’s suitability for office
- i) Can control what is said, but not what the media will hyperfocus on
- ii) Thus, slips in debate can be devestating
- One. 1976: Ford's accidental insistence that Poland was not under Soviet domination hurt his election chances
- b. New Media
- i. New tools: faster printing technologies, reliable databases, instantaneous Internet publishing and
- mass e-mail, social media sites, autodialed pre-recorded messages, and enhanced telecommunications and teleconferencing
- ii. Apply “rapid-response” techniques
- 1) Formulation of prompt and informed responses to changing events on the campaign trail
- a) Scandal response? Conduct background research, implement an opinion poll and tabulate the results, devise a containment strategy and appropriate spin, and deliver a reply
- iii. Internet
- 1) 1992: Democratic presidential ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore maintained a Website that stored electronic versions of their biographical summaries, speeches, press releases, and position papers
- 2) 2000: Candidates began using e-mail and their Web sites as vehicles for fund-raising, recruiting volunteers, and communicating with supporters
- 3) 2006: Most campaign Web sites featured downloadable and streaming video, used for strategy
- 4) 2012: Most of the candidates held a Website
- iv. Online Social Media
- 1) 2012: Barack Obama participated in Reddit.com’s Ask Me Anything (Which was pretty dope to read honestly)
- 2) Effective in reaching politically engaged, but do not inspire new demographic groups to become engaged
- v. Use new media to target specific constituencies
- 1) Robocalling: Both raise money and rally supporters for the candidate and spread negative (and sometimes false) information about an opponent
- a) 2.5K/minute for pennies a call
- 2) GPS tech on smartphones personalizes ads (which candidates will use)
- a) Consultants buy ads centered on ballparks, fairs, voting locations, or other places where they might find engaged people
- c. Campaign Advertisements
- i. Types:
- 1) Positive
- a) Stress the candidate’s qualifications, family, and issue positions with no direct reference to the opponent
- b) Favored method
- 2) Negative
- a) Attack the opponent’s character or platform
- b) May not mention the candidate who is paying for the airing (except for that legal requirement)
- c) History
- i) 1796: Portrayed presidential candidate Thomas Jefferson as an atheist and a coward
- ii) 1880: Federalists Spread a rumor that he was dead
- d) Usually cause voters to vote against candidate by voting other one
- 3) Contrast
- a) Compare the records and proposals of the candidates, with a bias toward the candidate sponsoring the ad
- 4) Inoculation
- a) Made in response to success of negative ads
- b) Attempts to counteract an anticipated attack from the opposition before it's launched
- c) Ex: Senator who fears a broadside about her voting record on veterans’ issues might air advertisements that feature veterans supporting her
- ii. Typically the most controllable aspect of a campaign’s strategy, though the media can analyze ads and criticize them
- V. 13.5: Toward Reform: The 2012 Presidential Campaign
- a. The Nomination Campaign
- i. The standings:
- i. Barack Obama did not face any opposition for the Democratic nomination
- ii. Reps had it harder: 2011 primaries w/ list of candidates, including Romney
- 1) Other candidates:
- a) Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
- b) Representative Michele Bachmann (MN)
- c) Georgia entrepreneur Herman Cain
- d) Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (GA)
- e) Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman
- f) Texas Governor Rick Perry
- g) Former Senator Rick Santorum (PA)
- h) Representative Ron Paul (TX)
- 2) 2,286 delegates (1,444 for majority)
- ii. The Democratic Race
- i. No opposition: Obama avoided primary campaign trail and spent much of the spring and summer raising money for his campaign
- iii. The Republican Race
- i. Observers assumed that Mitt Romney would be an early favorite among Reps
- 1) No widespread movement toward Romney among social conservatives, with many expressing concerns over his record as a moderate former governor of Massachusetts/ his Mormon faith
- ii. Several contenders showed early promise in polls.
- iii. First three states with primaries and caucuses delivered three different winners
- 1) Rick Santorum narrowly defeated Romney in the Iowa caucuses
- 2) Mitt Romney carried New Hampshire
- 3) Newt Gingrich carried South Carolina
- iv. Santorum won three more states until Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012
- 1) Romney carried six states
- 2) Santorum carried three
- 3) Newt Gingrich won Georgia
- v. Late March: 12 more states voted
- 1) Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum emerged as the only remaining viable candidates
- 2) Santorum won in Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee
- 3) Romney won the majority of the March contests
- vi. Early April: Romney would win
- 1) One week after Governor Romney won primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland, and
- Washington, D.C., he became Republican nominee
- 2) Santorum officially suspended his campaign on April 10th
- b. The Interim Period
- i. Gap of almost two months separated the end of the primary season and the opening of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions
- i. Relatively quiet
- ii. Obama:
- i. June 28: SC upheld a legal challenge to the signature legislative accomplishment of his first term, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
- 1) Important political victory
- 2) Point of contention in Romney campaign
- ii. Mid-July Roanoke slip-up: Obama said "if you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that; somebody else made that happen”
- 1) Received large backlash
- iii. Romney:
- i. Made several verbal gaffes during an overseas trip to Europe and the Middle East prior to the opening of the 2012 Summer Olympics in London when he questioned whether the city was prepared for the start of the games
- 1) Angered Palestinians by making remarks suggesting that Israelis are economically more successful than Palestinians because of cultural differences
- ii. National polls at the start of August showed President Obama generally leading
- 1) August 11: Selection of Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as Romney’s running mate
- 2) Generated great excitement among the Republican base
- a) Six-term member of Congress and chair of the House Budget Committee
- b) Gained considerable respect among the Republican base after he and other House Republicans challenged Democrats and the Obama White House with several high profile legislative proposals aimed at fiscal responsibility and reducing the nation’s debt
- c. The Party Conventions
- i. Republicans held August 27-30 in Tampa, Florida
- i. Hurricane Isaac changed order, most official activity on the opening day of the convention was suspended, with the exception of the unveiling of a debt clock that displayed the nation’s rising national debt real time
- ii. August 28: Beginning featuring speeches by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and a primetime address by Ann Romney, wife of the presidential nominee (designed as a personal address to the nation aimed specifically at appealing to women voters and presenting her husband as relatable and likeable person)
- iii. The next day, Paul Ryan accepted his nomination and delivered a rousing speech to the convention delegates that was highly critical of the Obama administration (challenged for factual errors)
- iv. Final Day: Clint Eastwood took to the stage in primetime with an empty chair meant to represent President Obama
- 1) Positive in the convention, mixed reviews everywhere else
- 2) On Twitter, President Obama responded to Eastwood’s skit by posting a picture of himself sitting in a chair marked “The President” with the message: “This seat’s taken.”
- v. Ended w/ Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech (30.3M people), mixing personal stories with his assessment of the state of the American economy, his plans to build economic growth, move the country toward greater energy independence, and a promise to the American people that if elected President, he would “help you and your family”
- ii. Democrats held September 4-6 in Charlotte, North Carolina
- i. Controversy when Democratic Party Platform omitted multiple references to God, and that language affirming Jerusalem as the capital of Israel had been removed
- 1) Next day, amendments reinserting the stricken language were offered and adopted after three attempts by the Convention Chair to gauge whether the voice-vote by the convention delegates met the necessary two-thirds support for passage under convention rules
- ii. Michelle Obama delivered the convention’s opening night primetime address
- 1) Laced with passionate and personal stories of how she and President Obama met and raised a family
- iii. Second night: Former President Bill Clinton officially nominated President Obama for reelection
- 1) Clinton Speech: Obama administration was on the right track toward economic recovery and prosperity
- 2) Praise from the media for making complex economic problems sound simple without talking down to the American people
- iv. Following night: Acceptance of the nomination in a 72,000-seat football stadium moved due to weather concerns to the convention hall with additional seating to accommodate an audience of approximately 20,000
- 1) Vice President Joe Biden spoke first, touting his middle-class upbringing and challenging Republican assertions about the direction of the previous four years
- 2) Obama's Speech (35.7M people): Offered a forceful argument that it was his administration that rescued the American economy from catastrophe and set the country on a path to recovery
- d. The General Election Campaign
- i. Key issue driving both campaigns was the state of the American economy and which candidate would achieve sustained recovery
- ii. Obama blamed for slow, at times stagnant, growth of the American economy over the previous four years
- iii. Candidate Debates
- iv. The Final Days
- e. Election Results and Analysis
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