2/23-2/26/24 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

2/23/24-2/26/24 Update, day 730-733 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Overnight RU UAV's attacked western Ukraine, apparently overflying Moldovan airspace from the Odesa coastal region. Its unlikely they were launched from transnistria given the size of Shahed UAV's and the difficulty in bringing material into Transnistria.

There are competing rumors that the RU breakaway enclave of Transnistria along the Moldovan border will attempt to seek accession to the Russian federation, with UA claiming no and western sources such as ISW arguing for.

The Polish government stated they will begin prosecuting protestors who physically destroy shipments on the UA border. This comes after some 160-180 tons of grain were removed from broken into train cars, with 8/40 wagons broken into.

There are 2400 trucks waiting to enter UA.

A UA delegation went to the border to meet with Polish counterparts, who did not attend as they stated they were blindsided by the meeting which was not mutually scheduled.

An investigation is afoot in Transcarpathia after a partially paralyzed man was issued mobilization paperwork and served in the military for a month.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

RU launched 18 shaheds across UA on Saturday night, with 16 intercepted across the country.

Zelensky gave a wide ranging interview on a variety of factors, including claiming that the definitive UA KIA # is approximately 31,000. UA family members and soldiers expressed skepticism, especially given that formal MIA investigations of soldiers (and far from all are investigated) exceed 60,000.

I personally suspect UA losses (KIA/MIA/POW) range between 100-120k.

Zelensky additionally stated that the new CiC Syrski is conducting an audit of available forces and examining rotation schedules for existing troops. Its been reported by soldiers that there are insufficient troops in the field compared to whats reported on paper.

Per UA Minister of Strategic Industry Kamyshin, UA has overtaken RU in production capabilities of medium range attack UAV's like Shaheds. He currently states the production capabilities are 2x the current order volume, and more financial aid to support full capacity production is needed.

Zelensky met with the PM of Bulgaria in Kyiv, who discussed developing logistics in the Black sea and Danube region

The former UA intel chief commented on a NYT article reporting that the CIA maintains 12 bases in UA along the border with RU. He focused on said bases being used primarily for training and guerilla actions by UA forces.

Zelensky signed a law on demobilization procedures for conscripts, while the option for them to voluntarily extend contracts remains available. The props

Ua claims to have destroyed $5.5 billion USD of RU equipment via UAV systems.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

RU attacked Sumy and Kharkiv oblast with missiles, destroying some grain silos. Additional Shahed strikes targeted a number of houses in Chuhuiv.

A couple was killed in Sumy oblast by RU airstrikes along the border.

3 Kh-59 missiles and 9 Shahed drones were intercepted overnight. A total of 3 ballistic missiles, 4 cruise missiles, and 14 drones were used. 12/21 were intercepted overall.

RU reportedly intercepted 2 drones over Belgorod this weekend.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv

RU forces continue efforts to push towards Synkivka without noted success. Attacks average 2/day.


Kreminna/Lyman axis:

RU troops are additionally contesting territory to the S of Terny, as their main thrust towards the Zherebets river valley highway has been unsuccessful for about 2 weeks now.

Attacks average 2/day.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU forces to the NE near Bilohorivka appear to be continuing assaults towards the UA positions around the former industrial area, although UA artillery and drones have rebuffed them effectively thus far.

RU continues to advance towards Ivanivske along the western highway out of Bakhmut, aided by MRLS shelling and larger armored vehicle assisted assaults. RU is currently contesting the E edge of the village's exterior, with the apparent intent of securing better defenses in the village for further exploitation.

RU troops have additionally made gains around the NW highway towards Chasiv yar, although UA drone activity along that highway seems to be impeding RU movement. UA reports that there are prepared defenses near Chasiv yar, in contrast to more ad-hoc defenses to the E.

RU executed at least 7 UA servicemembers on drone video near Bakhmut. RU released a video of a supposed RU surrendering troop being executed, but there are several inconsistencies between the alleged UA troops uniforms, the fact dead bodies reposition themselves, and so-on.

RU has demonstrably filmed several propaganda videos alleging to be UA or foreign soldiers thus far in the conflict.

RU assaults average 9/day here.


Avdiivka:

RU appears to have taken territory W of Avdiivka in Lastochkyne, pushing through the village. This comes after UA troops reportedly withdrew from the village to defensive lines between Orlivka, Tonenke, Berdychi. It remains to be seen whether these defensive lines are adequately prepared or if further withdrawals are necessary.

It seems likely UA will withdraw further to the W of the city, as prepared defensive lines were not adequately constructed, and thus natural terrain features will be utilized.

RU launched some 25 assaults in the Avdiivka direction in the last day, and 45 airstrikes.

UA Abrams tanks were seen operating in this region, and one was later seen with the ammo rack exploded and apparently abandoned. It remains to be seen if the tank itself has been recovered or destroyed.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU has dramatically increased its offensive actions in the SW Marinka direction, launching 40 assaults over the last 24 hours.

Currently RU is trying to push down the main highway towards Konstantynivka but has not had apparent success over the weekend.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU forces launched 5 assaults on Robotyne over the last day, with heavy shelling both in the village and the road to the NE. RU troops complain that UA forces here have prepared defenses and active drone cover, stating its a reversal of fortunes compared to the UA counteroffensive last summer.

A NASAMS air defense launcher was apparently hit and destroyed by RU forces NE of Zaporizhia city, via MLRS strike. There's some inconsistencies in the video, but it appears to not have been a decoy given cookoff of ammo inside.

RU has apparently begun door-to-door voting checks of locals in Zaporizhia for "early voting" in the RU presidential election. There are obvious suppression activities going on.

RU shelled 10 settlements in Zaporizhia 263 times over the past day, killing several locals.


Kherson:

RU drone recon is extremely high over the Kherson region, trying to compensate for the loss of the A-50u craft.

RU targeted 20 settlements in Kherson over the last day, damaging gas infrastructure and killing 2 people.

UA reportedly destroyed 64 RU troops, 4 vehicles, and 4 artillery systems of various kinds near Krynky. RU assaults range from 2-5/day.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU launched additional strikes into Odesa over the weekend, with 2 missiles intercepted. A separate drone strike in Odesa injured 3 people seriously.

GUR head Budanov made vague threats about the Kerch bridge, warning against using it.

Armed RU soldiers broke into a cafe in Chornomorske, Crimea, and assaulted locals by shooting in the air and beating men and women customers. Apparently this began after local RU soldiers called for reinforcements after some argument.


Russia:

Another A-50U mainstay AWACS craft was shot down over Krasnodar in Russia. There is footage of a local SAM system apparently firing on it, as RU AWACS craft dont integrate directly with local SAM systems like the Pantsir.

The alternative hypothesis is a long range UA S-200 missile shot it down, however given that said missiles are not road-mobile, it seems unlikely. Budanov claims this was a UA operation, prepared for at least 2 weeks. Currently 6/10 produced A-50u craft are operational.

RU is reportedly planning an offensive for the early summer, per UA.

Approximately 28,000 UA citizens are in RU captivity. This primarily includes citizens, and civilian POW exchanges are prohibited under international law, so UA is looking at alternative solutions for these hostages.

RU did not receive Iranian ballistic missiles despite media reports, per Budanov.

Since last September, North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of ammunition to Russia per the US State Dept.

A RU metallurgical plant in Lipetsk, some 500 km from Moscow, caught fire following a UA drone strike.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 13 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 86 air strikes (including drones), and 119 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

880 x soldiers (Total 410,700) [7 day avg 997]
37x APC
13x Tank
2x Air defense
13x Artillery (1xMLRS)
26x vehicles
26x UAV

estimated cost: $56.5 million USD

total estimated cost- $83.0 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.5 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:

French president Macron expressed strong support for Ukraine, which is reportedly encompassing not only support for purchasing additional munitions and equipment, but potentially increased direct French cooperation with the UA military. This is believed to be part of Macron's desire for France to reassert itself as the leader of the EU, at least militarily.

German Chancellor Scholz reiterated his opposition to sending Taurus long range cruise missiles to UA, primarily expressing concern about escalation if said missiles were used against targets like the Kerch bridge. He reiterated that UA needs general artillery munition, and announced another aid package encompassing vehicles, artillery ammo, and drone warfare tools.

Ukraine and Italy, as well as Canada, signed bilateral security agreements.

The UK will allocate 280 million Euros for the purchase of artillery ammo for UA.

The Hungarian Parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO on 26 February, a year and a half after the fact.

On Sunday, February 25, national exercises of the Armed Forces of Poland with the participation of NATO countries begin. Military maneuvers are called Dragon-24, and constitute 20,000 soldiers and 3500 pieces of equipment from 10 countries. This is the largest NATO exercise since 1988 in Europe.

The President of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, said that Ukraine will receive the first tranche of 4.5 billion euros from the four-year program for 50 billion euros from the EU in March this year

By the end of March this year, the European Union plans to transfer almost 170,000 ammunition to Ukraine and is working on further increasing the volume of deliveries.

The prime ministers of Italy, Canada and Belgium, as well as the president of the EU arrived in Kyiv on Saturday, February 24, to show solidarity with Ukraine on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion