odegaard

There were eight Alaves defenders between Martin Odegaard and the goal when the then Real Sociedad playmaker picked the ball up 35 yards out with the game goalless and almost 20 minutes played.

One perfectly directed and weighted slide-rule pass cut past all of Tomas Pina, Pere Pons, Rodrigo Ely, Martin Aguirregabiria and Lisandro Magallan, and also tempted Alaves goalkeeper Fernando Pacheco from his line, allowing La Real forward Mikel Oyarzabal a simple finish to make it 1-0.

The 2019-20 La Liga campaign was only six weeks old, but the best assist of the season had already been played. La Real went on to win that game 3-0 and move second in the early season table.

Odegaard had already shown that at 21 he was capable of deciding games with a dominant performance a few weeks earlier in a 2-0 victory over Atletico Madrid. He had opened the scoring himself by driving into the box and hitting a shot which deflected off Stefan Savic to the net, then helped seal the win with the free kick which caused chaos in the Atletico defence and was eventually fired in by Nacho Monreal.

On his return to La Liga after three increasingly successful seasons away on loan in the Netherlands, the Norwegian’s technical ability and passing range were maybe not a surprise given the natural talents that had attracted Real Madrid to beat many of Europe’s biggest clubs to his signature when he had just turned 16 in January 2015. Now he was also showing super impressive character and leadership skills as the key player in a new La Real team packed with other young talents.

Previous sceptics around the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu were now very excited about having a long-term replacement for Toni Kroos and/or Luka Modric in midfield. He was applauded on Liga and Copa del Rey visits to the Bernabeu, even when he scored as La Real knocked Los Blancos out of the Copa in February 2020, so it was quickly decided to cut short his loan spell at La Real and get him back to Madrid as soon as possible.

Things since then have not gone exactly as planned, for a variety of reasons, which has now opened up a surprise opportunity for Arsenal to nab a player who has long been tipped to become one of Europe’s top playmakers.

But what type of player is Odegaard at this stage of his career? And how might he fit into Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal?

Odegaard showed himself to be one of the leading creative midfielders at Real Sociedad, and across Europe last year.

To look further into Odegaard’s playing profile, we can also turn to his smarterscout ratings. Smarterscout is a site which gives detailed analytics on players all over the world, whose ratings (0-99) you can think of a bit like the player ratings on FIFA but powered by real data and advanced analytics. The higher the number, the higher that player rates compared with others in his position.

Reinforcing his attacking output, Odegaard’s high numbers on xG from shot creation (92/99) show his actions were contributing strongly to his team creating scoring chances.

This is supported using StatsBomb data (via FBref). Odegaard was making 4.1 shot-creating actions — which includes the two offensive actions made prior to a shot being taken (e.g. passes, dribbles, drawing fouls) — per 90 minutes. That rate of involvement in La Real’s shots placed him comfortably in the top 10 players in La Liga.

His high xG from ball progression (88/99) shows he is a player who receives the ball and progresses the team upfield by passing and carrying it into dangerous areas — something which is likely to be an invaluable asset to Arsenal. Looking at his carry and dribble volume rating (95/99), we can see this is an action he did a lot as a midfielder. This is further highlighted by the Norwegian boasting 3.2 carries into the final third per 90 last season — the seventh-highest player in La Liga.

Likewise, he is not shy of making incisive passes that threaten the opposition. His progressive passing rating (66/99) shows he regularly looks to move the ball upfield for the team. Indeed, Odegaard made 7.2 progressive passes per 90 minutes (i.e. passes that move the ball towards the opponent’s goal at least 10 yards within the opponent’s half). This was the fifth most of any player in La Liga last season.

Finally, Odegaard’s defensive numbers last season showed he can be particularly effective in stopping the opposition from progressing the ball, a key tactical element for La Real coach Imanol Alguacil. His defending impact rating (89/99) highlights his effectiveness at forcing turnovers and preventing easy progression upfield when he is the most relevant defender — a key strength that Arteta will value in winning the ball high upfield and starting attacks closer to the opposition’s goal. Although his low ratings for aerial duels (15/99), ball recoveries and interceptions (25/99) and general disruption of opposition moves through tackling, fouling and clearing (18/99) show that a lot of his defending wasn’t overly tangible.

Given that The Athletic understands that Arsenal’s technical staff would ideally like to play a 4-3-3 system, similar to the shape adopted by Liverpool and Manchester City, Odegaaard’s most likely fit would be as one of the No 8s either side of one holding player. In this role, his metrics would be similar to players like David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne who have thrived in such a system (and worked with Arteta) at City.

Odegaard’s numbers really are impressive, but there would be one possible tactical concern. When at his most influential for La Real, the team was generally set up in a 4-2-3-1, so he had two deeper midfielders providing a platform upon which he could work.

“At La Real, it was a perfect tactical set-up for him,” says one source who has followed his career from the start. “He could drift between the lines. It was so difficult for opposition teams to pick him up and shut him down.”

4-2-3-1 was also the shape in which now former Arsenal playmaker Mesut Ozil provided his best results over his career, and Odegaard’s ability to carry the ball before spotting and threading a pass through a packed opposition defence is quite reminiscent of Ozil’s signature moves. The German would have been proud of that Alaves assist which took out almost the entire opposition team.

However that is not to say that Odegaard is not capable of adapting his game, and he also is a much more natural presser than Ozil, as he showed especially under Alguacil at Anoeta. He does have the physical attributes to cover a lot of ground and has shown a capacity to learn and work hard over his career to date. The creative vision and talent is certainly there, if he can spend enough time on the pitch to show it.

We have used last season’s numbers to analyse Odegaard’s performances, as the sample size from 2020-21 is so small. Exactly why he is now heading out on loan again from Madrid remains a bit of a mystery. The player who shone last autumn for La Real and personally orchestrated Madrid’s Copa exit last season should have been useful for Zidane. But the Frenchman has barely used him at all, not even trusting him as a back-up to give either Kroos or Modric a rest through recent months.

The biggest doubts appear to be over Odegaard’s general fitness. A heel injury picked up in November 2019 took away a lot of his early momentum at La Real, then in February he developed a tricky tendonitis injury in his knee. It was decided to treat the issue with physiotherapy not surgery, but it hampered him through the rest of the campaign. His own form and that of the team trailed off and did not pick up post COVID 19-lockdown in March. He did not complete the 90 minutes in any of the Basque side’s final 10 games of the season.

After Madrid’s hierarchy cut short his two-year loan in San Sebastian to bring him back last summer, he also missed part of pre-season with care being taken over the knee issue. Nevertheless, Zidane put Odegaard straight into the team for their first La Liga game of 2020-21, which happened to be back at Anoeta. He even tweaked the team into a 4-2-3-1 shape with the Norwegian in the No 10 role. Neither he nor the team played well in a goalless draw. He kept his place for the following week at Real Betis, but was hooked at half-time with Betis 2-1 ahead.
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Odegaard has failed to make a mark on Zidane (Photo: Diego Souto/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images)

Since then Odegaard has started just two club games in any competition — a 1-1 draw at Villarreal, and the embarrassing 2-0 Champions League group defeat at Shakhtar Donetsk. Two niggly muscle injuries which kept him out for a couple of weeks each have not helped, nor has a positive test for COVID-19. With Madrid’s form generally poor, Zidane quickly returned to his preferred 4-3-3 shape with Kroos and Modric starting almost every game.

The Frenchman seemed to make up his mind about Odegaard especially after the Shakhtar game, when he physically struggled, maybe not a surprise given it is more than a year since he has had a run of games fully fit. His confidence has also looked low during the short spells of playing time he has been given, which is also understandable in the circumstances.

Not featuring at all in last week’s Supercopa against Athletic Bilbao was the last straw for Odegaard, who told Madrid that he wanted to leave and return to La Real to play some games over the second half of this season.

“Odegaard was fundamental for the team last season, with the quality he had,” a source close to the Real Sociedad squad tells The Athletic. “And he is a good kid who fitted in very well into the dressing room from the first day. He was well-liked.”

It all seemed set for a logical return, however it has not turned out to be so simple.

Firstly, La Real had signed David Silva last summer to take over the playmaking reins in the team. The veteran made a quick impact and the team have won eight of the ten games he has started, before muscle injuries also sidelined him. If both Silva and Odegaard were fit it might be difficult to get them both into the same XI. Still though, given Silva’s age and the veteran’s own fitness worries, you would imagine La Real’s hierarchy would have fought really hard to get him back, especially if they expected him to return to his peak over the next six months.

“I believe in no moment was there an option for him to come (back),” Alguacil said on Friday. “Of course I would have liked it, for what he showed here, the good player he is, he would improve the team. But there was never any option, so there is nothing to say.”

Alguacil did not clarify if there was no option as his own club didn’t want to pay for it, or no option as Odegaard was always going to go somewhere else instead. Finances do seem to have played a part in the decision to head for London. The Athletic understands that Arsenal’s financial offer was bigger than La Real would be able to afford — both in terms of a higher loan fee for Madrid and more attractive terms for the player.

Odegaard has always been clear that his long-term objective remains to triumph at Madrid, and he is under contract at the Bernabeu until 2023. Recently when Real Madrid have sold players they tend to include a buy-back option — as seen with Reguilon, who moved to Tottenham in September.

What happens back at Madrid will also have an impact on his long-term thinking. Modric is out of contract in June and turns 36 in September. Most importantly, Zidane’s own position as coach is looking shaky, with Atletico Madrid streaking ahead in the La Liga title race, and particularly after Wednesday’s embarrassing Copa exit to third-tier Alcoyano.

“Martin does not have an issue with Madrid, but he may have an issue with Zidane, as it’s obvious he is not in Zidane’s plans,” says a source who knows him well. “He is still an important project for the club, but he will want to play every week. There will be a new assessment maybe in the summer, and a new Madrid coach might view him differently.”

In the meantime, Odegaard should get a chance to rediscover the form of the early months of the 2019-20 campaign, when he played the best football of his career to date.

If Arteta can find the right tactical set-up for him to thrive in, and he can get his fitness and confidence back, then the situation might look very different this summer.