Fortnite Sprite drop rates

I'm not going to go math nerd with this stuff. It's almost the end of season, and this is still a mystery online, so I'm just going to vibe-math it.

Now, first of all, I think the sprite variant drop rates online on fortnite.gg and various articles and threads and posts are inflated for whatever reason. Watching people hunting these things down and actually farming for them in chests feels very different than what the supposed drop rates are. The base sprite drop rates seem plausible.

How to find rare sprites:
-Up to a 1.2x multiplier: Equip a Holofoil Sprite: +5% to find variants in chests (max +20%)
-1x Lucky Locator: "Likely" to find an undiscovered sprite
-Power Hours
-Trading (This is what people actually do for the most part)

Sprite drop chance
---
Sprite Chest: 100%
Rare Chest / Supply Drop: 35%
Chest: 10%

Sprite rarity type chance
---
Rare: 50%
Epic: 35%
Legendary: 11%
Mythic: 4%

I have a theory that each rarity of sprite is split between two pools creating effectively a high and low rarity within each of the rarities, the high being 2x of the low.

Individual sprite drop chance:
Water / Earth / Fire / Fishy / Air: ~10%; Probably decreasing as new sprites are added
Duck / Aura: 9%
Ghost / Demon / King / Striker: 4.5%
Boss / Llama: 2.75%
*John Wick: 1.5%
Dream / Punk / Seven / Peely: 1.375%
Batman / Burnt Peanut: 1%
Vini Jr. / Pollo / Ironmouse / ???: 0.5%
Zero Point / Grim: 0.15%

*Reload only

Sprite variant chance:
Quack: Unlocked through Sprite Mastery Rewards
Normal:
Gold: 12%
Gummy: 6%
Galaxy: 4%
Holofoil: 2%
Cube: 0.1%
Gem: 0.04%

In my gameplay, I found Holofoil to be much more rare than Galaxy, but that could just be me.

If you actually want to get all the sprites, grind out Mastery Mondays to hit the sprite dust cap and trade away on Discord groups.