172
TXPS28 KNES 202155


A.  17P (ATU)

B.  20/2032Z

C.  17.7S

D.  169.7E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T5.0/6.0/W1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H.  REMARKS...MICROWAVE SUITE FROM AMSRE THROUGH MOST RECENT SSMI PASS
SHOWED  EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.   TWO BROKEN EYEWALL FEATURES WITH THE
INNER CORE FEATURE LIMITED TO ONE SMALL CONVECTIVE TOWER ON THE NE SIDE AT
1716Z...VISIBLE LOOP SINCE THEN APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT HAS NOT DISSIPATED AND IN FACT HAS AN OVERSHOOTING
TOP APPEARANCE...AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER AT 2032Z WHILE
THE OUTER/NEW EYEWALL RING HAS REMAINED NEARLY CONSISTENT IN INTENSITY
AND LOCATION WITH A WEAKNESS ON THE SW TO WESTERN SIDE.  AS SUCH THE
COMBINATION OF THESE 2 EYEWALLS HAS LEAD TO A DIFFICULT PATTERN TO ASSESS
IN DVORAK AT 2032Z.  POSSIBLY THE BEST METHOD IS USING A BANDING EYE TYPE
FEATURE IN VIS WHERE 1.6 TO 1.7 DEGREES CAN BE MEASURED ON LOG 10 FOR
DT OF 4.5. EMBEDDED CENTER WOULD BE IN MG GIVEN MOAT REGION ON EASTERN
SIDE OF INNER CIRCULATION FOR DT OF 4.0 AS WELL. LASTLY...AN EYE PATTERN
IS NOT REALISTIC AS WELL GIVEN THE SHAPE AND SIZE OF THE 'EYE'...SO
AS SUCH DT IS 4.5 BUT WILL BE DIREGARDED GIVEN THE SITUATION.  MET IS
4.5 BASED ON DEVOLOPING TREND FROM 24HRS AGO...THOUGH NOT RAPID TREND.
PT IS 5.0 AS A GENEROUS 4.5 PLUS .5 ADDED FOR WHITE OR COLDER. GIVEN
WEAKENING RULES/CONSTRAINTS...FT BASED ON PT/WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    20/1716Z 17.7S 169.5E SSMI


...GALLINA