jynx vs egg discussion

Disaster Area20/06/2020
and why is blizz t1 a big throw? (1-(95/512*0.9))*(1-(0.1*0.9))*3/4= 56% chance he even hits sleep and it's a free 50%+ dmg
Amaranth20/06/2020
blizz t1 is a big throw because you have a ridiculously advantageous lead match up
you don't want to give him 56% to hit sleep when it's the only chance to hit sleep he's ever going to get
basically you take a fat risk for no reason
Disaster Area20/06/2020
i guess but its only an 80% chance i hit sleep before he does idk
Amaranth20/06/2020
that is
a pretty massive difference in odds
Disaster Area20/06/2020
i know it is
Amaranth20/06/2020
80% of hitting sleep vs 44%
when you click blizz
Disaster Area20/06/2020
but
the chance to ohko egg seems
like quite a nice upside lol
Amaranth20/06/2020
bruh
you have a GIGANTIC lead if you just click lovely kiss
why do you look for a way to toss it t1
you're ahead as soon as the leads come out
dont be greedy
thats the sort of play you make if you're two mons down
Disaster Area20/06/2020
i guess just the damage seems nice lol
Amaranth20/06/2020
and you need to come back
its not the sort of play you make when you're very very advantaged
Disaster Area20/06/2020
idk just 50%+ on egg with the ability to sleep later with gar sounded better to me than sleep an egg at full and accomplishing not much else idk
Amaranth20/06/2020
ok but
you cockblock his sleep
permanently
Disaster Area20/06/2020
well he presumably has
sing chans back
Amaranth20/06/2020
you go a full mon up
Disaster Area20/06/2020
or something
to support the egg
Amaranth20/06/2020
no, that's not a good assumption
Disaster Area20/06/2020
otherwise he should just go starmie to absorb
Amaranth20/06/2020
sleep leads often dont have backup
if he goes starmie you still prefer to LK heavily
Disaster Area20/06/2020
yeah thats true
but given that he stayed in
i assume he has sing chans
giving up ur sleeper for free t1 seems a waste
if ur lead is a sleeper dont let it get slept if u have no backup ._.
rby 101
Amaranth20/06/2020
right right
but LK is still much better on mie
on any switch really
Disaster Area20/06/2020
so either i get a big hit on egg and jynx gets slept
or i sleep egg and then get slept afterwards by sing chans
idk i prefer the first one cos i have good odds for advancing the gamestate even further in my favour
whereas the latter one is kinda neutral, i get the advantage of getting off a couple blizzes on chansey or something which is nice
i mean i can see the argument for saying lk turn 1 just i think theres an argument for the opposite too
Amaranth20/06/2020
i think
Disaster Area20/06/2020
wouldnt call it a throw
Amaranth20/06/2020
when you have a jynx v eggy match up
and you give him a 56% to somehow come out on top
that is a big throw
no other way to think about it imo
its a super winning match up
you really have no reason to greed out
Disaster Area20/06/2020
i guess