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- A summary of how election night 2016 played out from 7:00PM to midnight. You may want to use this as reference for election night 2020 and any other election night.
- I've used the 4plebs archive at archive.4plebs.org/pol/ to dig into posts from /pol/ from election night to see the results they shared at each point in time, and I also used the NYTimes 2016 Live forecast pages to assess how margins for the race changed as the night went on.
- From 7:00PM EST to 8:00PM EST Trump and Hillary exchanged leads multiple times in Florida
- Let's start with this screenshot of Florida results from 7:09PM EST, as you can see they were disproportionately from Trump friendly areas.
- 7:09PM EST-->http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478650145203.png
- At 7:22PM EST, here is how the results in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Virginia looked like: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651005723.png
- At 7:28PM EST, here is how the FL map looked. Notice all the counties that hadn't come in yet.: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651404742.png
- it took only less than four minutes later, at 7:32PM, for Trump and Hillary to trade leads: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651584255.png
- 7:40PM EST, Virginia, Trump still had a double digit lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652018941.png
- 7:45PM EST, Florida. As you can see, Trump had a sizeable (by FL standards) 3 point lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652410969.png
- and here is how the overall map looked at 7:50PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652642718.png
- by 7:52PM EST however, Hillary jumped ahead to a 3 point lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652906594.jpg
- at 7:56PM EST, here was the overall map: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653166699.png
- by 8:03PM, Trump started to close in to only 1 point behind Hillary in Florida: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653383661.png
- at 8:09PM EST, Hillary had a substantial 9 point lead in Ohio: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653818684.png
- at 8:13PM EST, Hillary had a small lead in Texas: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654010410.png
- here is how the overall map looked like at 8:14PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654056920.jpg
- at 8:25PM EST, Hillary had a 6 point lead in North Carolina: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654718942.jpg
- and by 8:30PM EST, Trump had regained the lead over Hillary in Florida. He retained the lead from here on out until he won the state: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478655265693.png
- here is how the map looked like at 8:47PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478656156261.png . Hillary was leading in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, but those leads were all because there was a disproportionate amount coming from blue areas.
- by 9:01PM EST Trump gained the lead in Ohio and kept it until he won the state, and was only around 1 point behind in North Carolina: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478656978494.png
- Trump took the lead in North Carolina around 9:04PM EST and kept it until he won the state: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478657091879.png
- Trump also took the lead in Michigan around 9:13PM EST and kept it until he won the state
- Aside for a few minutes early in the 9PM hour, Trump quickly took the lead in Wisconsin around 9:15PM EST and kept it until he won the state
- At 9:30PM EST, the NYTimes Election Needle projected a 50% chance that Trump would win
- At 9:48PM EST, the needle projected it at a 59% chance
- at around 9:58PM EST, Hillary took the lead in Virginia and kept it until she won that state, but by this point it seemed obvious that Trump was going to win and did not need Virginia because of his leads in the rust belt
- At 10:06PM EST, the needle projected it at a 69% chance
- at 10:14PM EST, the needle projected it at a 73% chance
- at 10:45PM EST, the needle projected it at a 92% chance
- at 11:00PM EST, the needle projected it at a >95% chance
- at 12:08AM EST, November 9, Trump took the lead in Pennsylvania and kept it until he won the state
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