3/15/24-3/18/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

3/15/24-3/18/24 Update, day 751-754 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that there will be a referendum held in October, re: joining the EU.

RU forces in transnistria claimed that UA drones hit a helicopter in the RU controlled enclave, despite the helicopter having been stationary since 2003 and apparently recently filled up with fuel. Both Moldova and UA rejected the RU narrative of events.

Hungary is planning to submit a protest to the EU, stating that it demands Hungarian minority rights in UA be elevated in such aspects of hungarian language political representation and having an additional voting member of the Rada.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine/Politics:

Overnight RU launched 22 shaheds and 5 ballistic missiles. 17/22 drones were intercepted.

UA has allocated an additional $128 million USD to defense spending, specifically allocated for UAV purchases. The overall UA defense budget for 2024 stands at about $49.54 billion USD, the highest thus far.

UA increased the death benefit for children of fallen soldiers from $60 to $200 per month.

UA continues to debate proposed amendments to the mobilization bill, specifically focusing on several hundred amendments submitted regarding the disposition of seized vehicles from individuals and buisnesses who evade service. Specifically, guidelines are being put in place to ensure said seized vehicles cannot be sold by the state, and that there is oversight for when vehicles can be confiscated in the first place (in contrast to existing law).

The Ukrainian Air Force has appointed a new spokesperson after some very apparent reshuffling.

UA is proposing to increase the state border guard service by 15,000 soldiers. The bulk of these will likely be deployed to the Belarusian and Russian borders.

UA PM Denys shmyal stated that UA hopes to distinguish itself in the EU as a cornerstone of various sectors, including food production, energy production, natural gas storage, and modern military productions. UA apparently hopes to begin initial accession negotiations by July of this year. EU ambassadors estimate that EU accession could be complete by 2030.

UA does not plan to extend its agreement to allow RU gas transport from Gazprom to transit Ukraine after the existing agreement expires in december of this year, although has indicated it may be amenable to EU negotiations on the topic, which accounts for approximately 8% of estimated RU gas production capabilities, which are more restricted since the closures of Nordstream pipelines.

In 2023, the number of patients with PTSD increased almost four times compared to 2021, and in the first two months of 2024, almost the same number of patients were diagnosed as in the entire year of 2021, the Ministry of Health reported. 2021= 3167 diagnoses, 2023 12,500 diagnoses, as of March 2024- 3300

Reportedly 128,000 cases of war crimes victims have been logged thus far by UA authorities.

Over 90,000 IDP's submitted applications for recieving continued government support.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

UA supported RDK fighters raised flags in Kozinka, a village 2 miles inside the Belgorod border, after skirmishing around the abandoned town for several days. While the RDK forces make claims about dozens of RU vehicles destroyed, there doesnt appear to be much objective evidence of this on the ground. A number of UA breaching and engineering vehicles have been visualized as damaged or destroyed navigating the considerable RU minefields emplaced along the border here for over a year.

RU has apparently lost 4 pieces of equipment, while UA has lost 7 from confirmed records. It's known that RU is intensifying airstrikes along this axis.

Kharkiv city was bombarded by ballistic missiles overnight, damaging a number of apartments and wounding 12 residents.

RU shelled Chernihiv with 2 Kh-59 missiles overnight, hitting a families house.

1800/5700 square KM of mined land is expected to be cleared this year, with emphasis on priority locations like infrastructure and housing. About 330 people are actively working or being trained to work on this initiative.

RU hit the border town of Vovchansk with a glide bomb at the local fire station, injuring a firefighter and damaging 4 pieces of equipment.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv

RU launched 2 failed assaults towards Kupyansk via Synkivka over the day.

RU TOS strikes along the NW of Synkivka, and UA troops visualized running in that area, indicate that UA forces may have pushed up further in this area compared to weeks past, as RU forces previously were moving vehicles along the roads far behind where UA troops now have a presence.


Kreminna/Lyman axis:

RU launched 2 assaults towards Terny and the Zherebets river valley, with UA drone and DPICM munitions stopping their advance. UA drones are also noted


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU intensified their use of helicopter airstrikes towards Chasiv Yar, with no observed gains towards Ivanivske, as RU shelling stretches further to the fields S of the village and the hills NW of the town.

UA repelled 8 assaults towards Ivanivske and Kliischivka near Bakhmut. UA forces in the hills here continue to rebuff RU advances and loft drones into RU territory to the E and NE.


Avdiivka/Pokrovske:

UA repelled 13 assaults near Avdiivka. RU advances were recorded to the E of Tonenke along the main road, but otherwise the natural terrain features appear to continue to impede RU advances, despite the presence of bridging vehicles recorded.

UA drones have extensively targeted RU movements around the lakes and river roads to the E, used for transport into the frontline villages.

RU troops made minor advances to the SW of Pervomaiske near Nevelske, following heavy shelling.

Over 100 people were evacuated from the Ochertyn community near Avdiivka/Pokrovsk this week, with about 400 people remaining, less then half compared to last month.

Per UA commanders in this area, RU is usually launching assaults of under 10 people at a time, resulting in high losses. UA also claims that RU intentionally shelled the grey area with TOS-1 thermobaric launchers, to burn the corpses of dead RU fighters prior to future assaults so as to avoid demoralizing their attackibng forces.


Donetsk/Luhansk/occupied regions:

RU assaulted SW of Marinka towards Novomykhailivka 36 times in the last day, as it appears this has become the new main goal for RU attackers.

UA appears to have regained some territory to the SW of marinka, as it moves to threaten the main road RU is using towards Pobjeda, as a jumping off point to their main objectives closer to Novomykhailivka.

RU troops contested additional territory in Novo

Its reported that RU voters in the Urals were given ballots on election day that stated they were voting from the occupied regions of Ukraine, a likely case of state mandated fraud.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU attamtped to attack Robotyne 7 times over the past day. RU forces made minor gains to the E of Robotyne, supported by airstrikes

Over the last day, RU carried out 458 strikes on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhia region, of which almost 100 were drone strikes.

UA shaheds hit an apartment building in Kryvi Rih.

RU heavily monitored and supressed any anti-putin activity during the elections in the occupied territories, with armed soldiers entering people's homes to physically supervise them voting.

The IAEA continue to report that the situation at the ZNPP is not improving, with explosions and military activity in and around the plant.


Kherson:

Over the last day, UA forces in Kherson eliminated 14 guns, two UAV, and 228 soldiers. RU assaulted Krynky 3 times.

UA Sappers are apparently using the DOK-ING MV-10 automated demining system in N Kherson oblast, as the Mykolaiv/Kherson border becomes a prime site for UXO clearing.

RU attacked Mykolaiv and OChakiv with ballistic missiles, causing 10 casualities and damaging infrastrucure.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea

RU strikes on Odesa killed 21 and injured 70 more, via a "double tap" ballistic missile strike during the day. The secondary blast injured and killed a number of rescuers, including a local paramedic responding to the intial blast. RU propaganda pivoted to say this was a strike on french soldiers, following recent anti-RU statements by Macron. Theres no evidence for this claim.

It has been assessed the RU drone attack on Odesa apartments earlier this month, killing and wounding dozens, caused about $13 million USD in damages.

Reportedly RU is systematically attempting to repress the ethic diversity in Crimea, going back to 2014, with specific repression of the Crimean Tatar population.

There are currently no RU ships out of harbor in the Black sea or Sea of Azov.

UK Defense minister Grant Shapps reportedly canclled a planned visit to Odesa earlier this month due to threats from RU, and his aircraft had jamming actions applied to it while it flew near the RU enclave of Kaliningrad.


Russia:

UA continues to strike RU oil refineries at a rate of 1 day or so, targeting the Krasnodar and Samara region. The three oil refineries in Samra targeted account for 25 million tons of oil per year, or 10% of the RU oil refining capability

RU President Putin won re-election in RU with about 88% of the reported vote, in what was condemmed as "performative" elections by other European states. While exit polls are not typically performed in RU, there was a poll done outside the RU embassy (a voting site) in Turkey, which claimed that only 5% of the voters there intended to vote for Putin.

Per the UK, RU disabilitiy claims have increased by 507,000 (30%) in 2023 compared to the prior year. This will have a pronounced effect on RU medical and social services.

RU apparently continues to recruit heavily from poorer immigrants to serve in the military, specifically India, Africa, Nepal, and Serbia.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conduced 6 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 89 air strikes (including drones), and 95 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

810 x soldiers (Total 431,550) [7 day avg 939]. RU is expected to have lost 500k soldiers by June at this current rate.

17x APC
19x Tank
1x Air defense
34x Artillery (0xMLRS)
68x vehicles
36x UAV

Estimated cost: $69.9 million USD

total estimated cost- $80.1 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.9 Billion USD total over last 30 days.

Its noted that the ratio of RU observed tank:IFV losses is increasing, indicating that may be less RU tanks on the battlefield


Overseas:

The Czech republic has apparently tapped cold war era contacts to source artillery shells for UA, finding an additional 700k shells available for purchase on top of the 800k already

Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham said that he will appeal to President Biden's administration to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. This comes after he visited Kyiv and met with Zelensky.

The Italian foreign minister stated rejected the french proposal of western troops entering Ukraine, for escalation reasons.

The EU has allocated €500 million to enable the defense industry to increase ammunition production capacity to 2 million rounds per year.