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- > summary(varLM)
- Call:
- lm(formula = DepVar ~ modelFactors)
- Coefficients:
- Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
- (Intercept) -0.260879 0.061043 -4.274 4.73e-05 ***
- NAT.5_Year_Treasury_Yield 0.012234 0.005059 2.418 0.01759 *
- NAT.House_Price_Index_Growth -0.002837 0.001129 -2.514 0.01371 *
- REG.Real_Disposable_Income_Growth -0.011284 0.003674 -3.072 0.00281 **
- REG.Unemployment_Rate 0.060506 0.006767 8.942 4.18e-14 ***
- ---
- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
- Residual standard error: 0.08086 on 91 degrees of freedom
- Multiple R-squared: 0.6491, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6337
- > adf.test(varLM$residuals)
- Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
- data: varLM$residuals
- Dickey-Fuller = -3.9243, Lag order = 4, p-value = 0.01605
- alternative hypothesis: stationary
- Durbin-Watson test
- data: varLM
- DW = 1.0976, p-value = 1.709e-07
- alternative hypothesis: true autocorrelation is greater than 0
- > auto.arima(DepVar, xreg = modelFactors)
- Series: DepVar
- ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
- Coefficients:
- ar1 intercept NAT.5_Year_Treasury_Yield NAT.House_Price_Index_Growth
- 0.4674 -0.2429 0.0075 -0.0029
- 0.0985 0.0894 0.0080 0.0017
- REG.Real_Disposable_Income_Growth REG.Unemployment_Rate
- -0.0078 0.0586
- s.e. 0.0051 0.0101
- sigma^2 estimated as 0.005294: log likelihood=118.34
- AIC=-222.67 AICc=-221.4 BIC=-204.72
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