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Jan 22nd, 2018
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  1. > summary(varLM)
  2.  
  3. Call:
  4. lm(formula = DepVar ~ modelFactors)
  5.  
  6. Coefficients:
  7. Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
  8. (Intercept) -0.260879 0.061043 -4.274 4.73e-05 ***
  9. NAT.5_Year_Treasury_Yield 0.012234 0.005059 2.418 0.01759 *
  10. NAT.House_Price_Index_Growth -0.002837 0.001129 -2.514 0.01371 *
  11. REG.Real_Disposable_Income_Growth -0.011284 0.003674 -3.072 0.00281 **
  12. REG.Unemployment_Rate 0.060506 0.006767 8.942 4.18e-14 ***
  13. ---
  14. Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
  15.  
  16. Residual standard error: 0.08086 on 91 degrees of freedom
  17. Multiple R-squared: 0.6491, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6337
  18.  
  19. > adf.test(varLM$residuals)
  20.  
  21. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
  22.  
  23. data: varLM$residuals
  24. Dickey-Fuller = -3.9243, Lag order = 4, p-value = 0.01605
  25. alternative hypothesis: stationary
  26.  
  27. Durbin-Watson test
  28.  
  29. data: varLM
  30. DW = 1.0976, p-value = 1.709e-07
  31. alternative hypothesis: true autocorrelation is greater than 0
  32.  
  33. > auto.arima(DepVar, xreg = modelFactors)
  34. Series: DepVar
  35. ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
  36.  
  37. Coefficients:
  38. ar1 intercept NAT.5_Year_Treasury_Yield NAT.House_Price_Index_Growth
  39. 0.4674 -0.2429 0.0075 -0.0029
  40. 0.0985 0.0894 0.0080 0.0017
  41. REG.Real_Disposable_Income_Growth REG.Unemployment_Rate
  42. -0.0078 0.0586
  43. s.e. 0.0051 0.0101
  44.  
  45. sigma^2 estimated as 0.005294: log likelihood=118.34
  46. AIC=-222.67 AICc=-221.4 BIC=-204.72
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