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A stroke of luck by all accounts since, once again, they're locked in a stalemate - And no, it's not for gameplay reasons. Whiterun being a 'city' with the population of like 50 guys is for gameplay reasons. There are very clear indications why the Stormcloaks and the Imperials are evenly matched - For one, the Imperial forces in Skyrim are understrength, in addition to the Stormcloaks having the home advantage as well as having a lot of veterans in their ranks. Etc.

'As soon as the war started' is greatly exaggerated - But it doesn't help that the information we receive is incredibly vague for any critical analysis. The dossier states that he was captured during the 'Campaign for the White-Gold Tower', so between late 4E 171 to middle 172, from what I can glean. Additionally, it's not even clear whether Ulfric was a soldier or commander in the Legion, so any tactical mishaps cannot be accurately attributed to him either (let's be fair, the Empire was a complete shitshow during the Great War). As for the claims that it was Ulfric who perpetrated War Crimes against the Forsworn, the only source that directly claims this is 'The Bear of Markarth', a notoriously biased propaganda piece that is meant to discredit Ulfric and the Stormcloaks and paint the Empire in a positive light. The same author downplays the Forsworn's own atrocities in 'The Madmen of the Reach' when we know, for a fact, they practice human sacrifice, Daedra Worship (of some of the worst Daedric Princes in the setting), child kidnapping, murder, cannibalism, and more.

The Forsworn in Cidhna Mine never name Ulfric as the one who committed those actions, they just say 'The Jarl', which most probably refers to Jarl Igmund's father.  Ulfric wasn't even a Jarl at that time. There are also inconsistencies in the timeline that further prove that Ulfric isn't at fault.

As for the crackdown on Talos Worship, you could lay it at the feet of the Empire as well. Multiple sources mention that the Empire and Igmund's father contacted Ulfric and asked for aid. Ulfric demanded the free worship of Talos in return, they accepted. They knew it was illegal, but they still accepted his terms before reneging on it.

And Torygg would never have claimed independence even if Ulfric asked for it. The one source who claims this is Sybille Stentor, a Vampire in disguise, and she then directly contradicts herself in the next line of questioning:
Why didn't Torygg ever declare independence?

"Because the Dominion is a sleeping beast that Skyrim cannot slay alone. Because many Nords are part of the Imperial army even now. Because the food and resources we get from the Empire are important to our people. Because even if we can't openly worship him, Talos the god was once Tiber Septim the man, and this is his Empire. And Torygg wasn't ready to let it fall apart."

[I'm gonna go off on a bit of a tangent here that might not be relevant to the current discussion, but I thought it fit.
Ulfric is pretty much a textbook Greek tragic hero.

He's powerful, he's charismatic, he's brave, he's prideful, and personally very capable.
But he's walking the road to tragedy and disaster by the consequence of reasonable decision making that was made with incomplete information, information he didn't have any way of knowing before he began his long-standing quest to atone for what he sees as a personal failing that had massive and disastrous consequences for his people, way of life, and patron god.

He thinks it's his fault that the Empire was forced to sign the White-Gold Concordat and that worship of his God was outlawed. He is trying desperately to correct this personal failing. His tragedy is that his attempts to correct what he understands to be a personal failing is only helping the enemy, and his motivations are predicated on a lie the enemy convinced him of.

You put Ulfric right next to Achilles, Oedipus, or Odysseus, and he'd fit right in. He's a very by-the-numbers Greek Tragic Hero.]
Ultimately, I feel like the Empire is more in the wrong than Ulfric is. Either way, we won't know the outcome of the Civil War until TES 6 releases (in thirty years).

May I say that I appreciate the civil tone we've kept in this discussion. I've had plenty of threads turn into name-calling and accusations, I'm happy that this hasn't devolved into that.