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k3v227

Red L24 for Starmie

k3v227
Mar 23rd, 2018
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  1. related: https://pastebin.com/4qcnGwZg
  2.  
  3. :)
  4.  
  5. -----------------------------------------------
  6.  
  7. TIME CALCULATION
  8.  
  9. Level up Comparison:
  10. - Normal: 4 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 1 Bad level ups for Silph Bar (L35 after arbok).
  11. - L24 for Misty: 2 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 2 Bad level ups for Silph Bar.
  12.  
  13. Route 3 + Lass -> Center Skip -> Skip Nerd -> L10 Paras kill -> Paras Catch.
  14. - Skip Nerd (HA x2 + PS, HA + Screech hit + HA) = 50s.
  15. - 1 less S&Q = 20 seconds.
  16. - Thrash 2 turns on final Lass before Bill = some time save on average? (not factoring in yet)
  17. - bottom hiker instead of top hiker (Leer + HA, wg) = 34 - 48 = 14s timesave.
  18. - 2nd bottom hiker instead of jrtrainerM = 1:00 - 40 = 20s timeloss.
  19. - Lose 1 turn on Starmie = 8s
  20. - Other Ranges: 6 * 0.257 + 6 * 0.45 + 6 * 0.129 = ~5s
  21.  
  22. save: 50 + 20 + 14 = 84s
  23. lose: 20 + 8 + 5 = 33s
  24. total: 51s
  25.  
  26. -----------------------------------------------
  27.  
  28. RISK CALCULATION
  29.  
  30. Added risks in a vacuum:
  31. - Misty (63.2%)
  32. - Voltorb (0.9 * 0.75 * 0.33 * 0.257 = 5.7%)
  33. - Venonat: (1%)
  34. - Oddish (0.46 * 0.25 = 11.5%)
  35. - Bulbasaur (0.129 * 0.25 = 3%)
  36.  
  37. Total: 1 - [0.368 * 0.943 * 0.99 * 0.885 * 0.97] = ~70% chance of dying.
  38. After Misty: 1 - [0.943 * 0.99 * 0.885 * 0.97] = ~20% chance of dying.
  39.  
  40. -----------------------------------------------
  41.  
  42. SIMULATIONS:
  43.  
  44. NUM SIMULATIONS: 10000000
  45. Won Fights: 3681863 (36.81863%)
  46. Average turns (victory): 2.6366775
  47.  
  48. Data: https://pastebin.com/zRcPLv07
  49. Assumptions: https://pastebin.com/9nfVp6Ay
  50.  
  51. -----------------------------------------------
  52.  
  53. ROUTE 3
  54. - Bug Catcher: 6 HA.
  55. - Shorts Guy: 4 HA.
  56. - Bug Catcher: 9 HA.
  57. > Weedle: HA + Tackle = 2HKO.
  58. > Metapod: HA x2 + Tackle (+HA if tackle miss).
  59. - Lass: HA + Tackle (or HA), HA x2.
  60. > Rat: Horn Attack 17-20 62.96-74.07% (crit: 25-30 92.59-111.11%) (Crit one shot prob.: 66.67%).
  61. - Final Bug Catcher: PS x2, PS x3.
  62. > Caterpie: Poison Sting 15-18 46.88-56.25% (crit: 20-24 62.50-75.00%) (2 shot prob.: 75.0164%).
  63. > Metapod: Poison Sting 11-14 33.33-42.42% (crit: 17-20 51.52-60.61%) (1 non-crit + 1 crit death prob.: 2.0381%).
  64. - Kill an encounter with HA (specifics coming soon).
  65. - SKIP Center.
  66. - HA count: 6 - 4 - 9 - 3 = at least 2.
  67.  
  68. MT. MOON
  69. - Skip Center and Nerd
  70. - Manip: Water Gun -> Rare Candy -> Rope -> Mega Punch -> Moon Stone -> L10 Paras PS Crit Kill (not a range) -> Paras Catch.
  71. - Before Rocket: Candy -> Water Gun -> Moon Stone -> Mega Punch.
  72. - Rocket: MP, MP (+ WG)
  73. > Rat: OHKO.
  74. > Zubat: Mega Punch 32-38 91.43-108.57% (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 61.4183%)
  75. - Nerd: MP + HA, MP, MP + HA.
  76. - Kill any encounter you see: Fight top hiker, jrtrainerM.
  77.  
  78. CERULEAN CITY
  79. - Center -> IT -> Get Rare Candy.
  80.  
  81. NUGGET BRIDGE
  82. - Rival: MP + HA x2, HA, MP, MP + HA.
  83. - Bug Catcher: MP, MP.
  84. - Lass: MP, HA x2.
  85. - Jr. Trainer: MP, MP, HA.
  86. - Lass: MP, HA x2.
  87. - Mankey Guy: HA x2.
  88. - Nugget Rocket: MP, HA.
  89.  
  90. ROUTE 25
  91. - Bottom Hiker: WG.
  92. - Lass: MP x2.
  93. - 2nd Bottom Hiker: WG, WG, MP, WG.
  94. - Lass: MP + Thrash x2.
  95. - Teach Thrash over Water Gun.
  96. - Get Ether.
  97. - Talk to Bill, Heal, Rare Candy, Escape Rope, reactivate Instant Text.
  98.  
  99. EARLY DIG ROCKET (optional):
  100. - Timeloss: 22 - 6.5 + 4.3 + 0.5 - 8 = 11.8s on average
  101. > Mitigate lost turn on Starmie = 8s
  102. > 22s in movement from bike shop. Normal movement is 6.5s from bike shop.
  103. > 0.536 * 8 = ~4.3s on average to machop.
  104. > 0.064 * 8 = ~0.5s on average to drowzee.
  105. - Escape Rope -> IT -> early Dig Rocket -> Misty -> L25 for Starmie.
  106. - Machop: Thrash 47-56 88.68-105.66% (14/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 46.4143%).
  107. > Karate Chop 5-7 6.10-8.54% (crit: 10-12 12.20-14.63%). Normal rolls: 5x2, 6x36, 7x1. Crit rolls: 10x17, 11x21, 12x1
  108. - Drowzee: Thrash 49-58 98.00-116.00% (36/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 93.5697%).
  109. > Confusion 20-24 24.39-29.27% (crit: 32-38 39.02-46.34%) Normal rolls: 20x7, 21x10, 22x11, 23x10, 24x1. Crit rolls: 32x5, 33x7, 34x6, 35x7, 36x7, 37x6, 38x1.
  110.  
  111. MISTY
  112. - Goleen: Thrash.
  113. - Misty: Thrash (slower than Starmie).
  114. > Starmie: Thrash 26-31 44.07-52.54% (crit: 44-52 74.58-88.14%) (Overall 2-hit Kill%: 41.1931%)
  115.  
  116. VERMILLION
  117. - Voltorb: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 74.2788%)
  118. > Tackle 3-4 3.30-4.40% (crit: 5-6 5.49-6.59%)
  119. Normal rolls: 3x38, 4x1
  120. Crit rolls: 5x38, 6x1
  121. - Pikachu:
  122. > Quick Attack 4-5 4.40-5.49% (crit: 6-8 6.59-8.79%)
  123. Normal rolls: 4x38, 5x1
  124. Crit rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1
  125.  
  126. ROCK TUNNEL
  127. - Venonat: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 84.9960%)
  128. > Tackle 4-5 4.26-5.32% (crit: 6-8 6.38-8.51%)
  129. Normal rolls: 4x38, 5x1
  130. Crit rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1
  131. - Oddish: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 54.9880%)
  132. > Absorb 5-6 5.10-6.12% (crit: 8-10 8.16-10.20%)
  133. Normal rolls: 5x38, 6x1
  134. Crit rolls: 8x13, 9x25, 10x1
  135. - Bulbasaur: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 87.1394%)
  136. > Vine Whip 7-9 7.14-9.18% (crit: 12-15 12.24-15.31%)
  137. Normal rolls: 7x10, 8x28, 9x1
  138. Crit rolls: 12x4, 13x17, 14x17, 15x1
  139. - Growlithe:
  140. > Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 63.5617%)
  141. > BubbleBeam (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 91.4263%)
  142.  
  143. CELADON
  144. - Normal.
  145.  
  146. TOWER
  147. - Normal.
  148.  
  149. SILPH
  150. - L34 for Gyarados.
  151.  
  152. SAFARI
  153. - Normal.
  154.  
  155. KOGA
  156. - Normal.
  157. - L40 after 2nd Koffing.
  158.  
  159. **proceed as normal**
  160.  
  161. ------------------------------------
  162.  
  163. Level up Comparison:
  164. - Normal: 4 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 1 Bad level ups for Silph Bar (arbok isn't in red bar).
  165. - L24 for Misty: 2 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 2 Bad level ups for Silph Bar.
  166.  
  167. LEVEL UPS
  168. L25 after Starmie (bad level up)
  169. L26 after Spearow.
  170. L27 after Kadabra.
  171. L28 after Raichu. (bad level up)
  172. L29 after Cubone.
  173. L30 after 1st Geodude.
  174. L31 after Vulpix. (bad level up)
  175. L32 after Kadabra.
  176. L33 is after heal pad.
  177. L35 after Gyarados.
  178. L36 after Alakazam.
  179. L37 after Marowak. (bad level up)
  180. L38 after Nidoqueen. (bad level up)
  181. L39 after 2nd juggler Drowzee.
  182. L40 after 2nd Koffing.
  183.  
  184. NORMAL LEVEL UPS
  185. L26 after Starmie (bad level up)
  186. L27 after Raticate. (bad level up)
  187. L28 after Ivysaur. (bad level up)
  188. L29 after 1st Bellsprout.
  189. L30 after 2nd Slowpoke. (bad level up)
  190. L31 after Graveler. (bad level up)
  191. L32 after Gyarados
  192. L33 after 2nd Gastly. (bad level up)
  193. L35 after Arbok. (bad level up)
  194. L36 after Growlithe.
  195. L37 after Cubone.
  196. L38 after Rhyhorn.
  197. L39 after 1st juggler Kadabra.
  198. L40 after Muk.
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