11/30-12/1/22 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

11/30-12/01/22 Update, day 280-281 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

Belarusian Mig-31's alleged to be carrying Khinzal Hypersonic missiles, have left Belarus and returned to RU airspace.

While the risk of missile strikes and drone strikes from Belarus remains, there is currently no observed threat of RU/Belarusian ground military activity, as they have not formed any strike groups which would be necessary for such threats.

Several RU conscripts undergoing training in Belarus fled from their training camp over the last few days, further indicating the RU troops here are not crack combat forces, but trainees on the Belarusian dime.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

The UA government continues to warn about the threat of a possible imminent massive RU cruise missile strike against UA infrastructure in the coming days, especially with a large quantity of RU bombers being apparently loaded up with cruise missiles.

UA is in negotiations for receiving additional S-300 missiles from foreign partners, to replenish existing stocks in UA's main long range air defense system.

UA government officials responded to what appears to be a mis-statement by EU president Ursula Leyen, who said that 20k UA civilians and 100k military personnel had been killed thus far. While the UA government states the number of civilians is likely considerably higher, the number of UA combat deaths is nowhere close to 100k, with UA making a statement their KIA are between 10 and 13k. The EU stated that this was a mis-statement, and total casualties were the intended statement.

Given other resources and statements on UA losses, I suspect that while UA losses are probably north of 40k, it is the total casualties (including lightly wounded) which are over 100k, as referenced by the US DoD. RU casualties likely are more then 225k at this point, and UA came out and stated that "irreversible casualties" amount to over 200k.

It was also stated that RU's invasion has caused over 620 billion USD of damage to Ukraine.

UA returned another 50 POW's from captivity, including a number of Mariupol defenders.

Heat was restored in the Vinnitsya region, after a declaration of emergency following damage to the local power plant cutting off heat.

UA will be seeking to prevent the operation of pro-RU religious organizations, likely in response to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (closely tied to the Russian Orthodoxy) showing both tacit and active support for RU and pro-RU militants.

The UA Parliament has approved a law which allows for temporary paid leave of military servicemember's, with some constraints, in order to provide for mental and  physical health.

The head of the UA national football team is being investigated for massive tax fraud, owing some 500k USD.

As of December 1, 1,057 "points of invincibility" have already been deployed in Ukraine. They have heating, water, generators, and some communications infrastructure such as satellite internet. Work continues to ensure they all are up to standards.

UA is working to reduce the energy shortfall, with 73% of consumption being accounted for, with a 27% shortfall. Currently, there some 6 million UA citizens without electricity.

Some Kyiv citizens temporarily blocked an electric trolley, demanding to know why they didn't have power in their homes but the public infrastructure was running.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

Strikes continue along the border, with RU forces firing rocket salvos towards the Kharkiv  and Sumy border villages, damaging a granary.

In Sumy, a hospital was shelled, killing a 15 year old boy.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU shelling increasingly has ranged into Kupyansk and the areas around it, on both sides of the river. Otherwise, RU forces continue to shell UA positions along the highway from Kupyansk to Svatove, with the heaviest fighting around Kuzemivka, where UA has been attempting to seize the highway access.

RU attempts to counterattack to the NW of Svatove have reportedly been rather unsuccessful. The weather here is hindering both sides, and there are numerous allegations that heavy mechanized action is awaiting the ground to freeze first.

RU and UA forces continue to duel along the highway to Svatove, with RU attempts to counterattack to the NW of Svatove being broadly unsuccessful.

To the SW of Svatove, RU forces have increased their shelling around Ploschanka, as UA forces NW of Kreminna in this area are apparently making assaults on RU positions along the highway, with the intent of cutting it off. UA SOF are highly active in this area NW of Kreminna, including behind RU lines.


Siversk/Lysychansk.

There is no major change around Siversk/Lysychansk, with RU attempts towards the NE,E, and SE fronts. It appears that more RU forces have been redeployed here from Kherson.

RU strikes have increasingly ranged into the N Siversk suburb of Serebryanka, apparently as an attempt to interdict UA supplies to Bilohorivka. It appears RU may be prioritizing this area more, on both sides of the Siversky Donets river, as UA forces are coming under increased fire in the forests S of Dibrova, closer to Kreminna.


Bakhmut:

In Soledar, RU forces continue to skirmish with UA troops and shelling continues along the major line of contact. RU is continuing attempts to push SW from this area towards Bakhmut city, via Bakhmutske, but are still impeded by UA artillery fire in the open fields.

RU forces continue to skirmish in the fields to the NE of Bakhmut city, near the intersection right outside of town and its gas station there. However, the open fields likely mean RU does not have exhaustive control over this area, and is instead trying to find weaknesses in the UA line.

UA and RU strikes have intensified in this area, with RU forces firing more into the neighboring suburb of Pidhorodne and the immediately proximate NE outskirts of Bakhmut. Despite this approach being very obviously covered by UA artillery, it appears RU forces are continuing attempts to assault/recon along this axis.

There are some allegations, from both sides, of an UA offensive to the SE of Bakhmut city, targeting areas around an asphalt plant and dump immediately to the SE of the city. RU sources claim that they were forced out, in an area where RU had already taken significant casualties last week and may have had diminished manpower. UA sources have been hinting at some kind of offensive operation in the southern direction, although other UA sources confirm a higher casualty count for the day. This may serve to further indicate an offensive.

RU shelling seems to indicate some UA movement past these position, further lending credence to a ~2km advance action. The situation remains unclear as to total control at this time.

RU assaults to the south of Bakhmut, in an apparent attempt to flank to the city's west and menace/occupy supply lines, have been somewhat successful. RU forces are confirmed to have taken Ozarianivka, and are continuing to fight in the neighboring riverside town of Kurdyumivka. RU forces appear to have begin attempts to cross the river that runs through these towns to the W, along with increased strikes on the UA positions, in an attempt to break through.

There is more footage coming out showing evidence of RU and UA air power being tasked to this area.

RU prisoners S of Bakhmut receive their weapons only before the assault, under duress not retreat, and are not being given protective armor or even adequate ammunition.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU continues its attempts to strike out of Pisky so as to flank Avdiivka, although the volume of shelling here has noticeably reduced in recent days, as apparently more resources are being directed towards Bakhmut.


Mariupol:

As cold begins to truly set into Mariupol, with rain and freezing temperatures anticipated, the lack of RU provided central heating (despite propaganda claims) is beginning to move from a concern to a crisis.

RU does not appear to be making any considerable moves to provide heating for people, and there are queues of several thousand UA citizens waiting for disbursment of space heaters. Fights broke out in the lines as the night fell and temperatures dropped.

There is a strong likelihood that given the humidity, the lack of protection from the elements, and the lack of effective medical care in Mariupol, there will be numerous casualties from the cold. UA citizens are broadly prevented from leaving Mariupol at this time.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis :

There are scattered reports of RU forces withdrawing from several areas N of Melitopol in the Zaporizhia region, with several villages deeper in the RU occupized zone reporting RU troops broke things and left suddenly. Additionally

There have been a few RU rotations of forces in this area, and given the continued RU shelling its likely too early to call for a sustained RU abandonment, given that such a willful departure around Tokmak would open opportunities for UA forces to push on Melitopol (where RU troops are reinforcing) and subsequently threaten to completely cut the RU forces in Kherson/Crimea from those further east.

Frankly, given the huge importance of not losing Melitopol (and by extension the southern front) I cannot envision RU commanders wilfullingly abandoning the area.

RU is heavily mining the ZNPP, which is still occupied by RU forces. RU occupation officials are pocketing money intended for UA operators at the plant.


Kherson:

Mass graves are beginning to be found in Kherson oblast, with evidence of torture and summary executions.

RU shelled the center of Kherson today, damaging several residential buildings, medical facilities, and a gas line. Civilian casualties are reported. The art museum was also shelle.

About 180 km of roads have been cleared of mines in the Kherson region

RU forces deported some 40 people from the Kinburn peninsula. The situation here remains cloudy, with shelling into and out of the peninsula.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

The Odesa City Council supported a decision to dismantle and move the monument of Catherine of Great from downtown.

The Black Sea Fleet remains broadly in port, with concerns about both weather and UA kamikaze drones in the Black sea.

The risk from the black sea fleet firing cruise missiles remains, with a period of several hours needed for them to sail out and start firing.

Per the UA air force, during the last 9 months of the war, RADAR troops of the Air Force detected more than 240,000 RU air targets.


General:

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

560x soldiers (Total 89,440)
5x APC
1x tanks
2x Artillery (0x MLRS)
12x vehicles

There were a number of explosive packages mailed to embassies and offices of companies supporting Ukraine in Spain on Wednesday, with one parcel exploding and slightly wounding an UA embassy staffer. UA reportedly received these packages at other embassy locations.

The German government is handing over another 7 Gepard anti aircraft tanks, 100k first aid kits, 3 bridge-laying tanks, and 8 unmanned boats.

The US Senate has submitted a bipartisan bill to recognize the Wagner group as a Foreign Terrorist organization, which could place both them and their supporters in the crosshairs, both physically and financially.

US President Biden has asked Congress to provide an additional 37 billion dollars to support Ukraine.

The Netherlands, Estonia and Norway will hand over a mobile field hospital to Ukraine.

$500 million CAD has been issued in Canadian bonds to support Ukraine in a single day.

The Lithuanian government has allocated 13 million euros to support Ukraine, which will be spent on the restoration of energy infrastructure.

In order to replenish the current  RU early graduation of cadets from RU military academies in Russia is planned for the first quarter of 2023

The European Union is transferring 40 more power generators to Ukraine, in addition to the 550 already sent.

There are reports of the US is working with middle eastern allies to transfer NASAMS systems to Ukraine