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SARS / Coronavirus epidemiology and medications

Jan 23rd, 2020
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  1. Written on 01/24/2020 by Benjamin Barber aka Endomorphosis
  2.  
  3. https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1
  4.  
  5. "Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people."
  6.  
  7. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)
  8.  
  9. "Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear. "
  10.  
  11. "Chinese authorities presented new epidemiological information that revealed an increase in the number of cases, of suspected cases, of affected provinces, and the proportion of deaths in currently reported cases of 4% (17 of 557)."
  12.  
  13. https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
  14.  
  15. "the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."
  16.  
  17. https://www.air-worldwide.com/SiteAssets/Publications/AIR-Currents/2013/Attachments/Modeling-a-Modern-Day-Spanish-Flu-Pandemic
  18.  
  19. "The AIR Pandemic Flu Model estimates that a modern day “Spanish flu” would result in between 21 and 33 million deaths globally. ... Taken together, these modeling results suggest that dramatically fewer excess deaths—nearly 70% fewer than actually occurred in 1918— would result from a “Spanish flu” event today."
  20.  
  21.  
  22. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322919/
  23. Interferon-β 1a and SARS Coronavirus Replication
  24. Here, we report that recombinant human interferon (IFN)-β1a potently inhibits SARS coronavirus replication in vitro.
  25. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00060 human interferon (IFN)-β1a
  26.  
  27. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep01686
  28. Inhibition of novel β coronavirus replication by a combination of interferon-α2b and ribavirin
  29. Thus, a combination of interferon-α2b and ribavirin, which are already commonly used in the clinic, may be useful for patient management in the event of future nCoV infections.
  30. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00105 interferon-α2b
  31. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00811 ribavirin
  32.  
  33. Written on 01/23/2020 by Benjamin Barber aka Endomorphosis
  34.  
  35. Here is a summary of the rate of the spread of the virus, projections into the future, the medication names and manufacturers for the disease.
  36.  
  37. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)#External_links
  38. https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E5%86%A0%E7%8B%80%E7%97%85%E6%AF%92
  39.  
  40. 2019.12.31 27 suspected cases
  41.  
  42. 2020.01.23 633 confirmed / 422 suspected cases 17 deaths
  43.  
  44. death rate = 17/633 = 2.68%
  45.  
  46. Doubling rate 4.581 days (of both confirmed and suspected cases)
  47.  
  48. Percent growth per day 15.1% (of both confirmed and suspected cases)
  49.  
  50. Compound interest calculation
  51.  
  52. Projected 30 day sick population 58,516
  53.  
  54. Projected 30 day deaths 1,568
  55.  
  56. Projected 60 day sick population 5,409,336
  57.  
  58. Projected 60 day deaths 144,970
  59.  
  60. Projected 90 day sick population 500,050,819
  61.  
  62. Projected 90 day deaths 13,401,361
  63.  
  64. (assuming constant growth rates)
  65.  
  66. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  67.  
  68.  
  69. 由Benjamin Barber aka Endomorphosis撰写于01/24/2020
  70.  
  71. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fscientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1
  72. https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1
  73.  
  74. 3个月前,健康专家发布了关于冠状病毒大流行的不祥警告。他们的模拟显示,它可以杀死6500万人。
  75.  
  76. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fnews-room%2Fdetail%2F23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)
  77. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)
  78.  
  79. “正在发生人与人之间的传播,并提出了初步的R0估计值1.4-2.5。在一个卫生保健机构中进行了放大。已确诊的病例中,有25%据报道是严重的。来源仍然未知(最有可能动物水库),人与人之间的传播程度还不清楚。”
  80.  
  81. “中国当局提供了新的流行病学信息,表明受影响省份的病例数,可疑病例数增加了,在目前报告的病例中死亡比例为4%(557例中的17例)。”
  82.  
  83. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.infectioncontroltoday.com%2Fpublic-health%2F100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
  84. https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
  85.  
  86. “ 1918年至1919年引起西班牙大流行的流感的R0估计范围为1.4至2.8,平均为2。模型中的个体可以在本地和乘飞机旅行,从而在国家内部和国家之间传播病毒。在最初播种约800种感染的情况下,该模拟证明了不受控制的流行病如何能够在整个易感人群中迅速发展为大流行病。”
  87.  
  88. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.air-worldwide.com%2FSiteAssets%2FPublications%2FAIR-Currents%2F2013%2FAttachments%2FModeling-a-Modern-Day-Spanish-Flu-Pandemic
  89. https://www.air-worldwide.com/SiteAssets/Publications/AIR-Currents/2013/Attachments/Modeling-a-Modern-Day-Spanish-Flu-Pandemic
  90.  
  91. “ AIR大流行性流感模型估计,当今的“西班牙流感”将导致全球21到3,300万人死亡。……这些建模结果加起来表明,过量死亡人数明显减少,比实际发生的人数少了近70%。 1918年-今天的“西班牙流感”事件造成的。”
  92.  
  93.  
  94. (假设增长率恒定)
  95. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC3322919%2F
  96. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322919/
  97. 干扰素-β1a和SARS冠状病毒复制
  98. 在这里,我们报道重组人干扰素(IFN)-β1a在体外有效抑制SARS冠状病毒复制。
  99. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.drugbank.ca%2Fdrugs%2FDB00060%20
  100. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00060 人干扰素(IFN)-β1a
  101.  
  102.  
  103. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fsrep01686
  104. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep01686
  105. 干扰素-α2b和利巴韦林联用抑制新型β冠状病毒复制
  106. 因此,在临床上已经普遍使用的干扰素-α2b和利巴韦林的组合可能在将来发生nCoV感染时对患者进行治疗。
  107. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.drugbank.ca%2Fdrugs%2FDB00105%20
  108. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00105 干扰素-α2b
  109. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=zh-CN&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.drugbank.ca%2Fdrugs%2FDB00811%20
  110. https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00811 利巴韦林
  111.  
  112.  
  113. 由Benjamin Barber aka Endomorphosis撰写于01/23/2020
  114.  
  115. 这是病毒传播速度的摘要,对未来的预测,药物名称以及该疾病的生产商。
  116.  
  117. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)#External_links
  118. https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E5%86%A0%E7%8B%80%E7%97%85%E6%AF%92
  119. 2019.12.31 27宗怀疑个案
  120.  
  121. 2020.01.23 284例确诊病例17人死亡
  122.  
  123. 2019.12.31 27宗怀疑个案
  124.  
  125. 2020.01.23 633例确诊病例/ 422例疑似病例17例死亡
  126.  
  127. 死亡率= 17/633 = 2.68%
  128.  
  129. 4.581天(已确诊和疑似病例)的加倍率
  130.  
  131. 每天的增长率15.1%(在已确诊和疑似病例中)
  132.  
  133. 复利计算
  134.  
  135. 预计30天患病人口58,516
  136.  
  137. 预计30天死亡人数1,568
  138.  
  139. 预计60天患病人口5,409,336
  140.  
  141. 预计60天死亡人数144,970
  142.  
  143. 预计90天患病人口500,050,819
  144.  
  145. 预计90天死亡人数13,401,361
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