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MMBN2 Secret Chips

Prof9
Jun 8th, 2019 (edited)
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  1. In MMBN2, if you're NetBattling in Real mode, the loser gives up one of their chips to the winner. Which chip that is is determined as follows.
  2.  
  3.  
  4. First the game will make a list of all the chips that the loser has at least 1 of in the Pack, disregarding the codes.
  5.  
  6. Note: EXE2 JP v1.0 has a glitch where the game will only exclude chips in Folder1, and can thus decide to give away chips that aren't in the Pack but are actually in Folder2 or Folder3.
  7.  
  8. It will then check the Busting Level that the winner got and decide a chip rarity to award.
  9.  
  10. Busting LV. 1: 100% *
  11. Busting LV. 2: 100% *
  12. Busting LV. 3: 100% *
  13. Busting LV. 4: 50% *
  14. 50% **
  15. Busting LV. 5: 50% **
  16. 50% ***
  17. Busting LV. 6: 100% ***
  18. Busting LV. 7: 50% ***
  19. 50% ****
  20. Busting LV. 8: 100% ****
  21. Busting LV. 9: 93.75% ****
  22. 6.25% *****
  23. Busting LV. 10: 50% ****
  24. 50% *****
  25. Busting LV. S: 100% *****
  26.  
  27. Next, the game will check if there are any chips in the list of potential chips that match the selected rarity. If there are no chips found, then the game will decrease rarity by 1 and check again, until a chip is found. If there are still no chips found at this point, then the game will instead increase the rarity by 1 and check again until a chip is found.
  28.  
  29. Finally, the game will choose one of the codes of that chip that the player has. Equal weight is given to all codes; even if the player has 15 copies of Cannon A and 1 copy of Cannon B, those have an equal chance to be chosen.
  30.  
  31.  
  32.  
  33. If both players have at least 3 title screen stars, then there's a 1-in-16 chance the winner will instead receive a secret chip, and the loser will not lose one of their chips.
  34.  
  35. First the game chooses a chip at random:
  36.  
  37. 12/128 BgRedWav
  38. 12/128 FreezBom
  39. 15/128 Sparker
  40. 12/128 GaiaSwrd
  41. 20/128 BlkBomb
  42. 20/128 FtrSword
  43. 12/128 KngtSwrd
  44. 5/128 HeroSwrd
  45. 15/128 Meteors
  46. 5/128 Poltrgst
  47.  
  48. Then based on the chip that was chosen, one of its codes is selected:
  49.  
  50. BgRedWav
  51. 3/16 F
  52. 3/16 H
  53. 3/16 P
  54. 3/16 R
  55. 4/16 S
  56.  
  57. FreezBom
  58. 2/16 A
  59. 3/16 I
  60. 3/16 J
  61. 4/16 Q
  62. 4/16 U
  63.  
  64. Sparker
  65. 2/16 C
  66. 2/16 E
  67. 4/16 G
  68. 4/16 K
  69. 4/16 V
  70.  
  71. GaiaSwrd
  72. 4/16 D
  73. 2/16 L
  74. 4/16 N
  75. 2/16 W
  76. 4/16 Y
  77.  
  78. BlkBomb
  79. 3/16 B
  80. 4/16 F
  81. 3/16 G
  82. 3/16 P
  83. 3/16 R
  84.  
  85. FtrSword
  86. 3/16 A
  87. 3/16 I
  88. 3/16 L
  89. 3/16 S
  90. 3/16 Y
  91. 1/16 *
  92.  
  93. KngtSwrd
  94. 3/16 F
  95. 3/16 J
  96. 3/16 K
  97. 4/16 M
  98. 3/16 Q
  99.  
  100. HeroSwrd
  101. 3/16 E
  102. 3/16 N
  103. 3/16 O
  104. 4/16 T
  105. 3/16 Z
  106.  
  107. Meteors
  108. 2/16 B
  109. 3/16 H
  110. 4/16 O
  111. 4/16 R
  112. 3/16 V
  113.  
  114. Poltrgst
  115. 3/16 E
  116. 4/16 P
  117. 3/16 R
  118. 3/16 U
  119. 3/16 W
  120.  
  121.  
  122.  
  123. So taking these things together, these are the intended odds for each chip/code combination:
  124.  
  125. Chip Exact odds Exact %
  126. ---------------------------------------
  127. BgRedWav F 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  128. BgRedWav H 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  129. BgRedWav P 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  130. BgRedWav R 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  131. BgRedWav S 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  132. FreezBom A 24 / 2048 1.172 %
  133. FreezBom I 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  134. FreezBom J 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  135. FreezBom Q 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  136. FreezBom U 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  137. Sparker C 30 / 2048 1.465 %
  138. Sparker E 30 / 2048 1.465 %
  139. Sparker G 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  140. Sparker K 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  141. Sparker V 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  142. GaiaSwrd D 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  143. GaiaSwrd L 24 / 2048 1.172 %
  144. GaiaSwrd N 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  145. GaiaSwrd W 24 / 2048 1.172 %
  146. GaiaSwrd Y 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  147. BlkBomb B 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  148. BlkBomb F 80 / 2048 3.906 %
  149. BlkBomb G 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  150. BlkBomb P 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  151. BlkBomb R 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  152. FtrSword A 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  153. FtrSword I 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  154. FtrSword L 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  155. FtrSword S 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  156. FtrSword Y 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  157. FtrSword * 20 / 2048 0.977 %
  158. KngtSwrd F 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  159. KngtSwrd J 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  160. KngtSwrd K 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  161. KngtSwrd M 48 / 2048 2.344 %
  162. KngtSwrd Q 36 / 2048 1.758 %
  163. HeroSwrd E 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  164. HeroSwrd N 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  165. HeroSwrd O 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  166. HeroSwrd T 20 / 2048 0.977 %
  167. HeroSwrd Z 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  168. Meteors B 30 / 2048 1.465 %
  169. Meteors H 45 / 2048 2.197 %
  170. Meteors O 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  171. Meteors R 60 / 2048 2.930 %
  172. Meteors V 45 / 2048 2.197 %
  173. Poltrgst E 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  174. Poltrgst P 20 / 2048 0.977 %
  175. Poltrgst R 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  176. Poltrgst U 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  177. Poltrgst W 15 / 2048 0.732 %
  178.  
  179.  
  180. However, this selection is affected by RNG carryover glitch. As a result, the REAL rates become as follows (obtained through RNG simulation), and HeroSwrd Z and Poltrgst E are unobtainable.
  181.  
  182.  
  183. Chip Exact odds Exact % Approximate odds
  184. --------------------------------------------------------------------
  185. BgRedWav F 495374 / 31245041 1.585 % 2/128
  186. BgRedWav H 964355 / 31245041 3.086 % 4/128
  187. BgRedWav P 490935 / 31245041 1.571 % 2/128
  188. BgRedWav R 485534 / 31245041 1.553 % 2/128
  189. BgRedWav S 492721 / 31245041 1.576 % 2/128
  190. FreezBom A 244380 / 31245041 0.782 % 1/128
  191. FreezBom I 251732 / 31245041 0.805 % 1/128
  192. FreezBom J 483397 / 31245041 1.547 % 2/128
  193. FreezBom Q 975482 / 31245041 3.122 % 4/128
  194. FreezBom U 973513 / 31245041 3.115 % 4/128
  195. Sparker C 487986 / 31245041 1.561 % 2/128
  196. Sparker E 489291 / 31245041 1.565 % 2/128
  197. Sparker G 971863 / 31245041 3.110 % 4/128
  198. Sparker K 737808 / 31245041 2.361 % 3/128
  199. Sparker V 976665 / 31245041 3.125 % 4/128
  200. GaiaSwrd D 737173 / 31245041 2.359 % 3/128
  201. GaiaSwrd L 487249 / 31245041 1.559 % 2/128
  202. GaiaSwrd N 731395 / 31245041 2.340 % 3/128
  203. GaiaSwrd W 484222 / 31245041 1.549 % 2/128
  204. GaiaSwrd Y 488697 / 31245041 1.564 % 2/128
  205. BlkBomb B 495090 / 31245041 1.584 % 2/128
  206. BlkBomb F 1217262 / 31245041 3.895 % 5/128
  207. BlkBomb G 1211902 / 31245041 3.878 % 5/128
  208. BlkBomb P 502441 / 31245041 1.608 % 2/128
  209. BlkBomb R 1453778 / 31245041 4.652 % 6/128
  210. FtrSword A 743974 / 31245041 2.381 % 3/128
  211. FtrSword I 1213394 / 31245041 3.883 % 5/128
  212. FtrSword L 739968 / 31245041 2.368 % 3/128
  213. FtrSword S 1210584 / 31245041 3.874 % 5/128
  214. FtrSword Y 495265 / 31245041 1.585 % 2/128
  215. FtrSword * 480281 / 31245041 1.537 % 2/128
  216. KngtSwrd F 247448 / 31245041 0.791 % 1/128
  217. KngtSwrd J 725014 / 31245041 2.320 % 3/128
  218. KngtSwrd K 251912 / 31245041 0.806 % 1/128
  219. KngtSwrd M 735593 / 31245041 2.354 % 3/128
  220. KngtSwrd Q 968118 / 31245041 3.098 % 4/128
  221. HeroSwrd E 248713 / 31245041 0.796 % 1/128
  222. HeroSwrd N 484978 / 31245041 1.552 % 2/128
  223. HeroSwrd O 244677 / 31245041 0.783 % 1/128
  224. HeroSwrd T 243770 / 31245041 0.780 % 1/128
  225. HeroSwrd Z 0 / 31245041 0.000 % 0/128
  226. Meteors B 488004 / 31245041 1.561 % 2/128
  227. Meteors H 255165 / 31245041 0.816 % 1/128
  228. Meteors O 977564 / 31245041 3.128 % 4/128
  229. Meteors R 971947 / 31245041 3.110 % 4/128
  230. Meteors V 968179 / 31245041 3.098 % 4/128
  231. Poltrgst E 0 / 31245041 0.000 % 0/128
  232. Poltrgst P 244894 / 31245041 0.783 % 1/128
  233. Poltrgst R 243973 / 31245041 0.780 % 1/128
  234. Poltrgst U 247395 / 31245041 0.791 % 1/128
  235. Poltrgst W 483986 / 31245041 1.549 % 2/128
  236.  
  237.  
  238. Raw data: https://pastebin.com/VKnEnAvf
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