AFLM Simulator

homesshots = 0; homegoals = 0; homebehinds = 0;
awaysshots = 0; awaygoals = 0; awaybehinds = 0;
% These are the variables set at the start of each match - obviously, games
% start with a 0-0 score and this means we don't have to remember it before
% each one (which would've come in handy if we were automating it).

homescorepercent = homemargin*0.0023 + 0.5;
% Based on the results of the 2021 AFLM season - teams that win games have
% more than 50% of the total points scored in a game, and proportion
% increases (surprisingly, for typical margins, more or less linearly) as
% overall margin does.

sshots = round(((log((1/((1/(rand()))-1))))*(10/3))+44);
% This is working backwards from a formula described in the text of the
% article to randomly decide how many scoring shots there are in our
% simulation - 44 is the average number, this decides how low or high it
% is.

for k = 1:sshots
    if rand() < homescorepercent
        homesshots = homesshots + 1;
    else
        awaysshots = awaysshots + 1;
    end
end
% This is based around the assumption that the pattern of scoring shots is
% random, which won't be true but still holds together well enough. Based
% on the proportion of scores derived above, we essentially toss a weighted
% coin once for each scoring shot in the game.

for x = 1:homesshots
    if rand() < 0.5237
        homegoals = homegoals + 1;
    else
        homebehinds = homebehinds + 1;
    end
end
for y = 1:awaysshots
    if rand() < 0.5237
        awaygoals = awaygoals + 1;
    else
        awaybehinds = awaybehinds + 1;
    end
end
% 0.5237 is the proportion of scoring shots that were goals in the 2021
% season - again, we're assuming that goals and behinds are randomly
% distributed.

homescore = homegoals*6 + homebehinds;
awayscore = awaygoals*6 + awaybehinds;
% Pretty self-explanatory, just converting our scores into a sum that would
% make it easier to determine who won - and see where that goes for the
% ladder.

if homescore > awayscore
    homepoints = 4;
elseif homescore == awayscore
    homepoints = 2;
    awaypoints = 2;
else
    awaypoints = 4;
end
% MATLAB does point out to me that these values are unused, which is
% because I'm not very good at getting variables out of a function and into
% the main simulation program! Either way, this would go on a simulated
% ladder across the season.