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May 16th, 2018
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  1. Let s be the chance of success for a single 30 second period
  2. Let n be the number of 30 second periods
  3. Let t be the total chance of success over all periods
  4.  
  5. 1 - (1 - s)^n = t
  6.  
  7. (1 - s)^n = 1 - t
  8. ln( (1 - s)^n ) = ln(1 - t)
  9. n * ln(1 - s) = ln(1 - t)
  10. n = ln(1 - t) / ln(1 - s)
  11.  
  12. n = ln(1 - 0.5) / ln(1 - 0.003)
  13. = ln(0.5) / ln(0.997)
  14. ≈ 230.7
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