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- >inb4 is not going to follow your retarded equation et similia.
- These predictions are actually merely equations that probably CCP is following too due to test kits availability or deliberately published. Does not represent factual accurate data.
- Real predictions, OBVIOUSLY, must be calculated using reliable and verifiable data with S.I.R. or S.I.S. models (I'm working in this).
- >Salsa on epidemic models and R-naught:
- https://statnet.github.io/nme/d1-s2.pdf
- https://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/rsmith43/MAT4996/Epidemic.pdf
- https://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/rsmith43/MAT3395/R0.pdf
- >Sauce on CCP fake numbers
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840
- >inb4 you should calculate the fatality/mortality in this or that way et similia.
- The case fatality rate (CFR) is diffentt from mortality rate, CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections.
- >Sushi on case fatality rate, mortality rate and survival rate:
- https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
- http://osctr.ouhsc.edu/sites/default/files/sites/default/files/docs/berd/BSE%20Modules/Foundations/Module1/Module%201%20Part%20IV%20Notes.pdf
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3109/00016925309136688
- >inb4 your data is wrong/incomplete/different from xyz et similia.
- I've tracked by myself all the data from BNO, multiple times during the days. All daily datapoints are amended after Chinese official Hubei and National updates, usually at 00:00 GMT.
- >Sausage where the data is retreived:
- https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
- https://twitter.com/BNODesk
- >inb4 your cases prediction is too wide etc.
- Cases jumped like 14,000 in one day from a 2,200 average increment. I'm using a Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm so the past cases jump is inevitably widening the confidentiality bounds.
- >Chilli on forecast algo:
- https://machinelearningmastery.com/exponential-smoothing-for-time-series-forecasting-in-python/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing
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