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- The Economy Of Plenty (Was: Free-Markets)
- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
- Wed, 10 Sep 1997 19:45:00 -0500
- Messages sorted by: [ date ][ thread ][ subject ][ author ]
- Next message: Dan Clemmensen: "Re: *Now* we might get somewhere!"
- Previous message: Hagbard Celine: "[Fwd: Re: >H Information exchange in food chains]"
- I don't think I liked the way Holly Pearson phrased the issues involved. His
- impending economic collapse seemed too much like a social conflict, not a
- blind consequence of increasing technology. There may be winners and losers,
- but they are irrelevant and unintentional. Like most technological
- consequences, it is not in the least inevitable; it only takes more technology
- to counter.
- Our economy will either collapse or transform. *Which* will depend on whether
- we're smart enough, and flexible enough, to redesign it along the necessary lines.
- I have had thoughts along those lines, and they shone through in "Staring Into
- The Singularity". Hence the quote, I suppose.
- From "The Economy Of Plenty", an unfinished work: (1997 by Eliezer
- S. Yudkowsky.)
- -- The Economy of Plenty --
- The basic problem is economies of scale. At our level of technology, it only
- takes a billion people working to support six billion. And then the other
- five billion starve, and you start over with one billion and two hundred
- million, until you've got a self-supporting community of ten million people
- and the six billion are dead.
- There are four obvious solutions. First, give everyone a Universal Standard
- Wage. Second, break up humanity into units of ten million and forbid resource
- transfers between them. Three, raise the standard of living until there's
- enough work for everyone. Four, distribute the work more evenly.
- Solution one: In essence, this amounts to dividing humanity into workers and
- drones. It differs from Communism in that in Communism, everyone was supposed
- to work and nobody did, while here, only a few people will be supposed to
- work. I don't think this solution, or any other which involves dividing
- humanity, will be stable. The class conflict will destroy it, and the "Why
- should *I* work?" problem will still be present.
- How to make it work: Instead of dividing humanity, abolish *all* work. Go
- the rest of the way from one billion supporting six billion to zero supporting
- six billion. Build arcologies which require only a few thousand people,
- *total*, to sustain the entire planet at a minimal standard of living. Then
- paste the current economy on top of that. If this is stable, the rate of
- progress to Singularity will slow down, but we'll have all the time necessary
- to get it right the first time.
- Solution two: Partition humanity into six hundred economies. This will
- falter on limited resources, brains as well as arable land, of which we have
- enough to support five or even twenty economies, but not hundreds. For this
- planet to support six billion, we need technological economies of scale.
- How to make it work: I don't know yet.
- Solution three: Raise the standard of living. Why hasn't this happened
- already? That is, how can we be running out of work when people are still
- poor and hungry? The answer is that these people are unemployed, hence do not
- have any money, hence cannot pay for supplies, and hence do not add to demand.
- First let's see us raise the demand to match the current supply, much less
- the supply available if everyone worked!
- How to make it work: This gets kind of complicated, and requires massive
- computing power. Essentially, you have to get rid of money and replace it
- with a barter system. We *can* do this now because we have enough computing
- power to institute "complex barter" systems. This takes some explaining. A
- simple barter transaction is one in which A gives B a pineapple, and B gives A a
- coconut. A complex barter is where A gives B a pineapple, B gives C a
- coconut, and C gives A a watermelon. Note the triple cycle. Complex barter
- is too hard to keep track of - without computers, heh heh heh - which is why
- we have money, to transform every transaction into a simple barter. By
- "money", we here mean something with artificial value, rather than universal
- units of exchange. A complex barter system can still have standardized units
- of valuation.
- What would be accomplished by this? Well, one of the economic design flaws
- leading to our current problem is - more than I can finish this sentence with.
- Here's what happens. Person A, who builds widgets, builds 100 widgets. B
- through K also build 100 widgets. Unfortunately, there is only a market for
- 1,000 widgets total. But 1,100 have been built.
- The standard capitalistic reply at this point is that G, who isn't very good
- at this, goes out of business. There are only two problems: First, G can't
- get another job, and more importantly, that's NOT what actually happens!
- Instead, the price of widgets drops. Like a brick. They trade widgets for
- cigar bands on a one-to-one basis. The result is that not even E, who's the
- best, can make a living - much less G.
- In an ideal world, this overproduction would simply raise standards of living.
- Really. Think about it. There are more widgets for everyone! Hooray!
- Again, ideally, food would be overproduced. So the price of food would drop
- as well. The price of everything would drop, and widgets would be dirt cheap,
- but so would be everything else, and A and E and G and K would all be rich.
- The problem is that production of food is out of sync with production of
- widgets. The current economy was BUILT ON SCARCITY. Everyone, everything, is
- centered on the idea that supply is always slightly less than demand. If one
- - and only one - field shifts to a massive-supply model, that field suffers.
- It's like being the only cooperator in a world of defectors. You need a
- massive shift.
- And again, the existence of money is the problem. Not private property! I'm
- not saying that. The problem is money instead of barter. See, in a barter
- system, you can establish valuations that can outlast supply and demand, or at
- least weather the turbulence created by switching to an Economy of Plenty.
- Suppose that we declare one widget to equal one hamburger in value. Now, even
- if there are too many widgets, anyone who's made a widget can still get a
- hamburger in exchange. G's widgets might rot, but that's better than all the
- widgets rotting. We'll assume, actually, the existence of some buffer, some
- temporary charitable system, so that G remains in business for at least a
- month or two - while the production of hamburgers increases also.
- We can also move up to establish a futures market - even better than barter -
- for absolutely everything on the planet. Then even G's widgets don't rot.
- Instead, everyone sells 91 widgets instead of 100 - which may sound bad, but
- that's on a G-just-went-into-business model. If you assume a technological
- overproduction, 91 widgets is just what they sold last year. It's
- technological overproduction that's the problem, after all - population
- expansion is self-correcting. So everyone has an extra 9 widgets to trade for
- whatever they want. Hopefully, someone besides widget-makers is
- overproducing, so the surplus can all be traded around.
- Eventually, everyone overproduces, and those who produce the most wind up with
- the most of the overproduction. So the system has two parts, really: One, a
- futures market (applied to EVERYTHING) so that overproduction doesn't cause
- prices to drop, and two, a complex barter system - whose necessity is kind of
- hard to put into words, but... The value of a dollar is arbitrary. If a
- widget-future involves $5 a widget, the value of the contract is affected by
- fluctuations in the money supply as well as the supply of widgets. A
- widget-future which involves trading one hundred hamburgers for one hundred
- widgets may fluctuate all over the place in THEORY, but in practice, one
- hundred hamburgers are what the widget-maker will eat this year. In other
- words, the universal futures economy is very vulnerable to inflation, which a
- complex-barter system will stop.
- Solution four: Distribute the work more evenly. How can I say that we're
- running out of work, when everyone WITH a job is spending every waking hour on
- their job? The problem is that ***
- [End of work in progress.]
- To summarize #4, you'd need to entirely revamp the structure of a corporation
- along certain lines. This would be even more complex than the complex-barter
- bit, which itself should really have diagrams. The solution to number four
- requires complex barter as a *prerequisite*, and something called
- collaborative filtering, and even substantial alterations to American law.
- Anyway, that's why I stopped there - I wasn't sure I had it all worked out.
- --
- sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
- http://tezcat.com/~eliezer/singularity.html
- http://tezcat.com/~eliezer/algernon.html
- Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you
- everything I think I know.
- Next message: Dan Clemmensen: "Re: *Now* we might get somewhere!"
- Previous message: Hagbard Celine: "[Fwd: Re: >H Information exchange in food chains]"
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